John88B
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Posts posted by John88B
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The ecm has been very consistent now for a few days whilst the gfs has flapped about.
If the ecm proves correct, which I have a hunch it is, would it be wise to take more notice of the ecm this winter rather than the gfs or does it not work like that?
I'd be interested to see the verification stats of both lately.
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3.7c and 50mm please.
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8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Days 5-7 are where the wheels either come undone or start gathering pace.
Models are struggling to resolve the positioning & energy of the Iberian low. I suspect once this is resolved we'll see a quick change across the models towards a particular outcome, be that mild/cold for the UK.
How do we want that iberian low to behave from a cold perspective?? Cheers.
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3 hours ago, steveinsussex said:
The pro’s are not seeing anything in the models to indicate any level of cold other than normal chillier winter type weather. I think many in here are getting carried away.
Just some chilly seasonal weather would do me just fine through December and the run up to Christmas with the hope of it leading to something even colder. It looks perfectly feasible to me.
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A complete novice here so excuse me if this is a daft question but what does mogreps have to say about this, why is it rarely mentioned and how often does it update? Cheers.
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
That is holy grail territory-
You've got the Greenland HP AND blocking to the NE remaining in situ. Pretty much 62/63 territory.
Quick question. Is that what is called an omega block?
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1 minute ago, Bristle Si said:
The thing is John "something colder" for 'us' is 7c (from 10-12c lately).
This is unfortunately very true but who knows, maybe this year a proper cold one.
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Ian Fergusson on our local weather forecast just mentioned the risk of something colder through December.
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Another thunder storm coming over here now. A really impressive evening of thundery activity and very heavy rain.
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Incredibly heavy rain for the last hour here in Thornbury and more to come looking at the radar. Definitely going to be flooding issues in the area tonight.
A few miles south of here will be wondering what all the fuss is about.
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I'm no expert but I've had the feeling for a while now that the end of November/start of December will see the first cold shot of the winter with snow for some.
Like a said just a gut feeling but the start of winter proper so a great time for it to happen and all the mild muck that has gone before will be quickly forgotten.
Fingers crossed for cold lovers or even just those wanting to see something a bit more seasonal.
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1 minute ago, johncam said:
Wishful thinking mate , first half will be too mild , we would need a darn cold second half to balance it out , can't see it
Yeah I just saw the latest models so scrap the average Nov
This run of above average months has got to break soon so hopefully December.
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I'm going to buck the trend here and go for an average November temperature wise then a colder December and early January with snow for many.
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Ian Fergusson on our local weather saying slightly elevated risk of cold weather through late Nov, December and January. Signs of northern blocking.
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The January 8th blizzard is the standout snowstorm I will never forget.
I was 12 years old living in a rural area just north of Bristol. A biting easterly gale set in with temperatures well below freezing and heavy snow. This didn't relent for nearly 48 hours.
The end result was up to 50cm of level snow, even in areas at sea level near the Bristol channel coast and 70cm in the more hilly areas. The west county and south Wales were paralysed for a week as freezing temperatures continued for days after the snowstorm.
The country lane I lived in was closed for a week with drifts up to 20 feet. I still remember looking out over the fields with the hedgerows disappeared at what looked like a raging sea of deep snow.
A truly memorable event.
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32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
The updated Bonacina analysis gives 7 of the 1990s winters as "little" snow. Baffles me how anyone (not naming names) can continually suggest that the winters of the 1990s were generally very snowy unless you are comparing it against a period that had even less snow, but there were long periods that had hardly any snow during the 1990s.
Bonacina UK Snowfall History and Events 1875-2021 (Bonacina/O'Hara)
DURHAMUKWEATHER.COMUK Snowfall History/Statistics catalog developed by Leo Bonacina. This summary of UK snow has been augmented by me with information from additional sources and brought up to date (the original only...Many also talk about the 70s as if we were constantly snow bound every winter but, correct me if I'm wrong, weren't many of the 70s winters pretty snowless, particularly the early 70s?
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10 hours ago, Hoghtonwhite said:
Something is brewing far away from our shores ready to unleash when the time is right.
The only thing brewing here at the moment is a nice cup of tea
On a serious note I tend to agree with you (might be wishful thinking) but I've had thoughts that late Nov/early Dec could bring our first, of hopefully many, cold blasts. To tell the truth here down south great cold synoptics are wasted this time of year anyway.
Whilst I'd rather have cooler, more seasonal temperatures here at the moment the plus side of this mild weather has been low heating bills and some great golf!
Cheers all.
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14 minutes ago, Coldilocks said:
If people on this forum had to the power to control UK weather, we'd have 30c+ all spring/summer and 20c+ all autumn/winter.
Minus 20c more like
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1 minute ago, Don said:
High pressure to the north west of the UK and low pressure over the Azores. Could mean some easterly/north easterly outbreaks for the UK. Certainly doesn't look mild!!
Many thanks Don, I'm learning, slowly
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1 minute ago, Don said:
Most models seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet?
What is that chart showing please??
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8 minutes ago, RJBingham said:
I'm guessing the AccuWeather forecast will be adjudged to be the correct one this year
It looks bang on to me
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The UK climate has changed since time began.
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24 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
was it? outside of 1979 and 1986 im struggling to remember any long cold winters in my life time..maybe an argument for 85
Yep the winters in the 70s were in general pretty mild but 79 was great. Winter 81/82 had it's moments with cold and snow before Xmas and one huge snowfall in January down here in the west country and south Wales.
A couple of other half decent ones in the early to mid 80s. Probably the one's you mentioned.
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The ecm has been steadfast in predicting a cold spell and now with the other models starting to follow suit and the met office updates getting more wintry by the day, I believe a cold spell is now on the way. How severe yet to be revealed but so much to be excited about if you're a lover of proper winter weather. Bring it on