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alexisj9

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Posts posted by alexisj9

  1. 4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Midterm forecast

    Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

    Mainly fine with some sunshine during this period, with temperatures increasing to perhaps become hot by Tuesday, with warm and humid nights likely.

    40% chance of some light showers Thursday afternoon

    Sounds lovely, apart from the warm humid nights, they can do one. Don't mind a few of those in the summer, but it's getting ridiculous now lol.

  2. 3 hours ago, Windblade said:

    Technically it is, but until the trees turn brown and leaves are dropping en masse I still count it as summer as Autumn doesn't start until halfway through September on my calendar.

    Storms in winter are extremely unlikely in my experience, but as I said above in my post I have witnessed thundersnow twice before so its not impossible.

    I've come out of the no storms thread in Jan every year since I moved here. Although my longest storm, started at about midnight  and lasted til around mid day in either November or October . In 2014. 

    And the night before I was watching flashes from a storm on the french coast doing the same thing, just hugging the coast.

  3. 2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

     

    Thanks for your comments guys. On this occasion I think the high res models struggled. But hey ho, that's the weather for you!

    Looking at the latest radar, Arpege was certainly out with it's timing for today's rain - it came through much earlier than this model suggested, so a disappointing performance there (especially as I rate this model).

    And GFS high res was out with the 'how much and where', but as rainfall is notoriously difficult to pin down, maybe not as 'guilty' as Arpege? For my location GFS looking almost spot on with 4mm of rain recorded against a forecast of 4mm. But for Mapantz on the south coast, the Isle of Portland just up the road has recorded 14mm against a forecast of 3mm.

    Anyway, it's all good fun and not to be taken seriously! :laugh:

    Have had lot's of proper rain now, but nothing close to needing a met warning yet.

  4. 1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Oh err!! :oops: What happened with Arpege's thoughts on timing with the rain? Here's the chart I posted last evening that was meant to be 21.00 tonight. And in comparison, the Rainfall Radar at 14.10 this afternoon. They look virtually identical. So is Arpege 7 hours out or did I drop a clanger and miss that there was a band of rain due this afternoon as well as again this evening?

    Fri Arpege for 21.00 tonight Arpege Precip Sat03Sep 21.00.png Radar 14.10 Radar Sat03Sep 14.10.jpg

     

    Well no rain has been through here as yet, not even that light blue bit. Was just cloud here. I'm wondering what that heavy stuff to the west will have left when it get's here.

  5. 3 hours ago, Windblade said:

    Ok, so sunday mornings dark, showery looking skies cleared in the afternoon to leave a convectionless, cloudless sky. I thought things looked good for a bit (probably wishful thinking on my part - I am now desperate), however we've had the usual hot and sunny conditions since then (although it hasn't been as scorching as it was, thankfully). I've seen reports of this hurricane on the homepage (first I'd heard of it as I don't read newspapers). The article mentions it could draw in some warm moist air if it does come this way. Could this unstable air mass kickstart some storms or is this the wrong setup?

    Although it won't be a hurricane anymore they tend to retain some of the heat that formed them in the first place. Warm, humid air with lot's of heavy ppn is common, there certainly should be showers once the main rain is through, thunder who knows.

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