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alexisj9

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Posts posted by alexisj9

  1. 24 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

    I was just going to make the same comment...that band of showers to the SW does seem to be intesifying.

    I'm personally watching that stuff in le harve goodness knows what that is, looks like a small low. Must be an upper low feature as there isn't meant to be a low south of us now.

    Edit: My mistake there is a little low pressure south of us in the charts.

  2. 27 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    Yup, raining here too with leaden gloomy skies, have to laugh really at the bad joke that weather forecasting is in this country!

    Looks like a small trough moving in a NNE direction was missed, looks to me like your unlucky that it's not strong enough for it to produce storms, although it does seem to be still developing, a few brighter echo's showing up now.

    • Like 1
  3. 4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Midterm forecast

    Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

    Mainly fine with some sunshine during this period, with temperatures increasing to perhaps become hot by Tuesday, with warm and humid nights likely.

    40% chance of some light showers Thursday afternoon

    Sounds lovely, apart from the warm humid nights, they can do one. Don't mind a few of those in the summer, but it's getting ridiculous now lol.

  4. 3 hours ago, Windblade said:

    Technically it is, but until the trees turn brown and leaves are dropping en masse I still count it as summer as Autumn doesn't start until halfway through September on my calendar.

    Storms in winter are extremely unlikely in my experience, but as I said above in my post I have witnessed thundersnow twice before so its not impossible.

    I've come out of the no storms thread in Jan every year since I moved here. Although my longest storm, started at about midnight  and lasted til around mid day in either November or October . In 2014. 

    And the night before I was watching flashes from a storm on the french coast doing the same thing, just hugging the coast.

  5. 2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

     

    Thanks for your comments guys. On this occasion I think the high res models struggled. But hey ho, that's the weather for you!

    Looking at the latest radar, Arpege was certainly out with it's timing for today's rain - it came through much earlier than this model suggested, so a disappointing performance there (especially as I rate this model).

    And GFS high res was out with the 'how much and where', but as rainfall is notoriously difficult to pin down, maybe not as 'guilty' as Arpege? For my location GFS looking almost spot on with 4mm of rain recorded against a forecast of 4mm. But for Mapantz on the south coast, the Isle of Portland just up the road has recorded 14mm against a forecast of 3mm.

    Anyway, it's all good fun and not to be taken seriously! :laugh:

    Have had lot's of proper rain now, but nothing close to needing a met warning yet.

  6. 1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Oh err!! :oops: What happened with Arpege's thoughts on timing with the rain? Here's the chart I posted last evening that was meant to be 21.00 tonight. And in comparison, the Rainfall Radar at 14.10 this afternoon. They look virtually identical. So is Arpege 7 hours out or did I drop a clanger and miss that there was a band of rain due this afternoon as well as again this evening?

    Fri Arpege for 21.00 tonight Arpege Precip Sat03Sep 21.00.png Radar 14.10 Radar Sat03Sep 14.10.jpg

     

    Well no rain has been through here as yet, not even that light blue bit. Was just cloud here. I'm wondering what that heavy stuff to the west will have left when it get's here.

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