alexisj9
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Posts posted by alexisj9
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Happy new year to everyone.
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I throw in a word of caution with regard to a possible patten change talked about on here and the strat thread. Remember in November we were saying there would be a pattern change end of month but the cold didn’t come despite model agreement albeit FI. Then it was going to be around the 20th Dec but it never quite fell into place for us again despite all the chat and favourable signals. We are now seeing the same expectation from the models where in FI it looks like another possible cold shot/pattern change. I know there are favourable scientific signals that this may well happen but REMEMBER its 2 weeks away and any forcast that far away has a low probability of happening regardless of any spin of scientific reasoning. The weather will do what it will and defy even the best forcasters and models amongst us. This post is targeted to those that do not have the years of experience to realise that discussing the likely weather we will have 2 weeks away is subject to unexpected changes when it comes into a reliable time frame (3 days). Just emember the probability rapidly reduces when we are looking at 240+and even noting trends at this timescale is subject to large changes until it becomes within the 3 day to max 5 day period when the probability of it happening rapidly increases and we can either start prepping sledges or dusting off the BBQ. Its easy to get carried away with the models, the expertise (of which there is a huge amount on here) but always remember it’s the weather we are dealing with that is not driven by a computer or scientific data. I hope I haven’t said anything out of turn and no offence intended, I just think it should be said as a reminder and a word of caution particulary to newcomers to this fascinating forum..
I don't agree, there have been some small patern changes this month and three of them have resulted in small cold spells for parts of the country. The first produced an unexpected snowfall in the West Country, The second brought snow to the North and East Angela, and even to London and the southeast one morning. The last was a short wave that blocked the Easterly we were expecting, we still had a cold snap that brought snow to the North East and even to some places down south though those falls were very slight.
Sorry I think I misunderstood what you wrote the first time I read it. I do agree that althought the strat warming will eventauly change things, there is at this stage no real way of knowing if that will be good for cold for us or not.
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I'm going to go with a 2.5, I don't think the weather will be mild for long, there are some colder signs showig already, and we will be under a northwest flow for a bit as the high makes it's way over. I expect either cloud or fog to keep the temps down while under the high depending on where the high centers it's self.
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This thread can be so confusing at times for those of us with less expertise.
For example, earlier today, in the space of just three posts, the GFS 12z was described as :
1) promising for those seeking cold
2) a disaster for cold lovers
What chance have we got of learning anything given the above?
Sorry for the rant, but it can be so frustrating at times!
It does make it quite difficult, I tend to ignor all the it looks bad for cold posts as they should be in the moaning thread anyway, and just pay attention to posts that talk about what is in the charts, and the analisis that is provided. The fact is that the lastest run is bad for cold in the begining and then changes in fl. It's quite posible that someone jumped the gun before the run finished or doesn't pay attention to fl charts.
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The wind has stpped gusting at last, being gusting between 35/45 since the middle of last night till about an hour ago.
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Still on learning curve, could the proposed quieter spell next weel lead to some foggy days,Especially with the soggy ground conditions?
I'd say that is a probability. It does depend on if you end up in the center of the high, the wind has to be very slight for a propper fog to build.
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Merry Christmas everyone, have a good day.
This latest bit off rain has just finished here, lets hope it stays gone, although I wouldn't mind one of these thunderstorms if they would pop up here.
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I have a customer who runs our local highways gritting depot, he said to me last week there's a high chance of a cold possibly snowy jan/feb, I asked how he knew this, he said it had come from a superior & that they were ready....
Well at least it will still be there for next year if it does turn out as wrong info, and the councils can spend the money they spend on salt on something else.
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Truly disgusting mega wet, dank, mild, ugly weather here. Braunton, North Devon flooded pretty bad, with minor floods all over.
Brauton is under a severe flood warning by the river caen, I hope you are not near there.
http://news.sky.com/story/1029012/floods-and-christmas-travel-chaos-live-updates
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Yes, I think a lot of posters on here are confusing the linkage between the SSW and the synoptic patterns with the notion that the strat caused the pressure patterns. If anything I'd suggest that the forcing is arguably the other way round ie the pressure patterns hint at a later SSW.
Yes I agree with this, if it happens before the SSW, it is probably the driving force for it not caused by it.
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and loudest
Very encouraging models so far today for the christmas/new year period with a potential potent cold spell with arctic air flooding south over the uk with embedded troughs swinging south in the flow bringing bands of heavy snow showers, severe frosts and high windchill. It would come as quite a shock after the upcoming milder weather.
I remember a few years back having some thunder snow during a northerly, the amount of snow dumped in just half hour was masive for southeast london. Is that the kind of stuff your on about?
If so shame this is in fl, hope it is still there later.
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Did it!!! I live in the north east and it delivered zip mate!! Im not sure about the extreme south east and you can correct me if im wrong but i think it deleivered nowt down there too!!
We had snow, lot's of it.
Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Happy new year everyone, lol the 2m temps on that cfs run find it hard to drop below 0. Maybe wind chill would help out a bit though. Shame it's in fl and probably won't happen but fingers crossed.