Think the GFS was accurate a few days in advance, cold air always arriving at 6pm, after the front, mild sector still being modeled tomorrow, rain/sleet I would think at low levels
This is when we have a snow chance, good wind direction for showers through the Cheshire Gap, but still mild sector tomorrow am, likely to be a wet morning tomorrow under say 200m asl
Cold air not meant to arrive until 6pm, our chance has always been through a Cheshire Gap streamer, could see a few flurries through the evening, more if over 200m