That ECM

northwestsnow most would take this run I would think.

ECM better than ukmo.

Ali1977 it is and no coldie will hate the mean. I’m just waiting to see. A good ecm won’t mean it’s nailed but would be welcome.

Harsh Climate FWIW I think next Thursday is a “good for Scottish ski industry “ post. Imo. I’m not saying ukmo is right but best to wait and see.

I will be the miserable so and so. Unless ukmo is on board it’s worth being reserved.

TillyS I think the commentary ref the specific chart is accurate. The disappointment comes from someone commenting on what a T216 chart is showing and think right must get down the shop and but some carrots for the nose. it is known that T120 and beyond is JFF. Take the ukmo yesterday evening and this morning. Placement of the low 150 miles further north and the difference is huge. You would hope that when people view the T216 ecm they think that would be a nice option let’s see if it gets down to the reliable. To suggest that someone correctly analyse a chart and for someone to say it leads to huge disappointment is imo wrong. People need to self regulate their feelings based on all information. When background information suggests that cold is a possibility then it doesn’t happen there is a pile of people effectively saying “well where’s my snow?” At this time there is a possibility of cold as shown via gem ecm there is also the ukmo which shows how it might not happen but it’s not beneficial if someone correctly says what a chart would deliver if people can’t think well it’s in FI so we will have to wait and see.

Just looked at the output. Ukmo T168 for many would be very nice. Right, going to read thread and see excited posts I expect.

Tbf at T168 ukmo would have chances of going cold from there. Let’s see where we are after 12zs.

This mornings gooduns. At least we have something to keep us interested.

Daniel* I would agree on most occasions however if we have lows tracking across but path is unsure due to wedges then that causes uncertainty. If then the signal is for a high to build irrespective of the exact path of the low then you can have more certainty beyond the shorter term uncertainty.

northwestsnow oi, I mentioned gem and added the chart.

T240 for me gfs is the least appealing from a cold perspective. The other two have possibilities especially for some parts of the country. Too much that is unresolved at this time so we will have to wait to see what looks like the way forward. Need some things to fall right please.

At T168 there’s some big differences, no wonder there’s low confidence.

Icon gfs ukmo T168. Quite like ukmo. To much variation to be confident in anything really, let’s see where ecm goes.

@Lukesluckybunch possibly but at T168 some notable differences.

@Ali1977 that’s the problem, us coldies are very good at imagining.

@Harsh Climate Yes later in the season, few disappointments, generates less excitement and more scepticism. But cold will land at some point in the future, is this the next time? We will see.

Some excitement.

Going to be awhile before a clear direction of travel but there’s some nice possibilities.

At last, something to chase, I’m sure it’s been posted.

T240 I look at these each morning to see if there’s a way forward to cold. I’ll keep looking but it’s not great viewing at the moment but we live in hope.

Might be gone tomorrow but at least it’s better viewing.

The signal for a high to go north has not been as strong lately. Met suggest this was always the case. Nope, not fooling us.