[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

So GFS 06z is turning.

Nogaps 00z en 06z is ok for the cold solution set up.

Ukmo 00z is Ok.

EC 00z oper is Ok ,.

EC ensemble is ok.

Ok en in combination with alle together with previous runs from the exmwf , anomalie charts , .i can say now for sure without a schadow of a doubt that i am within a reach of point for no return.

I can predict now a major set up for the UK en West Europe for wintry cold weather with also snow events for the the rest of februari starting next week until te rest of the month.

CFS projektion also a cold snow march episode with interlude s .

I also expect on basis from NAO/AO /MJO/GWO a surpise a wintry suprise for Brittain in the month of March 2013.

Alle together i say , we have seen nothing yet, the best days of wintry weather has yet still to come.

All together i can make a vision /a MAJOR BREAKTROUGH is coming at the wetter patterns near

Greenland /Iceland , Finaly.

The bonus , the jackpot i hope so .

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

ECMWF 00z Moyenne/Ensemble s animation .

It is going for colder net week with the Block.

No Atlantik.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

Today Uk Snow , later on it will be turn over in rain.

Than the snow come to the Netherlands NAE model projektion 10-20 mm snow for me

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

PRIMARY for the south a bitterly cold NE or East at 192 hours.

By 2040 chart is also very good , still very cold , en the High above Schotland will be swallow up by the than to form Greenland high.

Look above , you see enormous rise in pressure near Canada /Pool .1050 MB big brother , he is moving east to Greenland , he will eat the Scottisch High up at 240 charts , look at it good and also above en downstairs , couse Jetstream is going towards Spain.

At the same time the polar air is trying to move south toward Scandinavie.

It has a great ,,very great chanse of succeeding in it

En in the mean time there is also a formaat for a cold pool in Europe him self.

Spring is long way to go en no strong Atlantik in the 3e decade februari.

Beyond that we discuss that later on.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

ECM T216 chart at least looks like the T240 did last night, it's a question of getting the block in the right place, we need it far enough away from us to bring the cold unstable uppers in.

That can be fixed later ,. lets hope first the evolution will play good out starting at 72 hours -120 .

After that we wil have the shot !

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

ECMWF for the fifth run at row with a huge stunnig MAJOR PROJEKTION .

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

Amazing today with the 00z GFS en ECMWF.

The battle or differences begin right at the 72 hours synoptische situation.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

Breaking News again from the ECMWF.

The battle between the giants GFS versus ECMWF is just begun.

The Europeans against the USA.

A good set up at like UKMO from 120 hours - 168 hours.

Also Nogaps 00z with cold solution.

I chose Ecmwf en you ?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

NOGAPS 00z , Navy model from USA .

It delivers us a strong Highpressue systeem with strong element in it also in the top .

It brings a easterly for the UK en west Europe ect.

Important to know is that there is than at that moment a cold pool in Europe en ist flowing to Brittain with this synoptische solution from the Nogaps. Btw it will be replaced en upgrade the Nogaps ?

Also i see good snow showers for your eastcoast , there will be for sure convection.

Also we see a Canadian block on the road.

On the other side we see the Polar Vortex trying to break out to the south about the eastside from Sweden.

UKMO is ok en also Nogaps 00z today.

I still believe in a cold or cool solution for the UK en my country as well.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

UKMo 00z is a good set up , for the High pressure to go north from the UK.

There is a cold low by the east sea , a slide low develep south to UK.

This is the way forward the way i want.

It could surprise us with :

I still believe at basis from the most models , particular ECMWF that cold pattern will come en wil stay mayby for a lond time.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

There he is again the ECMWF , again en again with the cold solution.

First with a easterly by High pressure south Scandinavie .

After that it moves towards Iceland /greenland with a NE en very cold than ,.

Cold solution , on the road for wintry weather again ,perhaps the main event !

EC 12z operationeel the 4e run at row for cold , en high turing towards noord/scandi en later Iceland en Greenland/.

Fase 4 s amp 1 will be correct.

GWO.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Roadmap is good , no panic.

GFS en ensemble s 12z are lost in space.

A complete mess inside .

Nogaps en Gem en route !

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

GFS 06z , LT , there he come s the Polar Express !

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Ok look this the ECMWF 12z from Yesterday en 00z from today , provided for me by meteo Schiphol/Amsterdam.

Look the consistency in it.

Both EC operationele runs.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Very good charts youve posted there ryan!!hopefully we can see more upgrades for wednesdays snowfall!!do you think there is still time for an all snow event?

Yes for wednesday , if its slows little bit the front, but after that it will be rain ok.

But at longer termin we wil get more chanse , also possible at 3e decade februari en even in march , all options open .

Unlikely or almost unlikely dont count . Everything is possible, expescialy this year.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

EC eps , for Noord - Holland .

Ec oper has some back up from ensemble .

But look at the controll run.The blue line .

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

NAO !

End the chart for wednesday snow , NAE/EFS

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

This is a becoming just a breaking weathermodel news story the ECMWF in particular.

I am really trilled by this chart , look again !.

If the chart wil come out , we could see signifant amount of snow , 50 -90 cm snow in UK en my country as well.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Good morning weatherland , en we start immediantely with the update. Ready to rumble ?

As expected ; the MAJOR PROJEKTION from the ECMWF 12z yesterday contineu s today with the 00z.

A great massive outbreak from the Artic towards Brittain en western Europe.

I told many times , dont mark your self to MJO with his false fase 2 en even true it doesnt say alway severthing.

Fasten your seatbells again !

En later i will come back on mine vision mixed with CFS en JMA data for the month of march 2013.

It could be an invasion of Brittain from the army of the Polar Bears

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

CFS .

Look at this charts again for the 19e run at a row , who can asure me that it can nor happen ?

Mostly it dont happen in march so cold pattern , but in can in fact .

In march 2008 i had at end march 20 cm snow , i think it was pasen , how you call it ? Eastern ?

In 1999 end i think somewere in 2002 [ not sure exact , dont pin me down on the exact data]

i CAN assure you that i had 10 cm snow en other occasion 30 cm in April ! en also -10 .

So it is unlikely , but unlikely doesnt mean it is impossible !

Believe me or do not believe me , its up to everybody for her him self.

Ok ECMWF is running now , lets see en analyse.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

There come the latest CFS 18z with the Polar Vortex moving in to the south.

Are we in for someting special weather 3e decade februari en beyond that ?

I think so , but unsure with the models .

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

There are realy good chanse with some of the model runs.

Some energy at the wrong place s is going out.

High signals start near Norway/Iceland.Also in the top of the heights.

Ukmo looks ok en building towards the block .

GFS 00z is also looking good. , it wil bring the Nord flow , later on with possible little cold lows from Spitsbergen or the from the weather island Jan Mayen.If this can get trough , it can bring snow with it.

Nogaps at 180 hours comes with a highpressure systeem between Iceland en Norway , with 1030 or 1035 hectopascal.

Near Denmark there is a cold low arrived from the north.This could be effect Brittain.

Gem is puting some heigh pressure at 204 over us .But i think thats over reaction.

As is see all together [ waiting for ECMWF still ] is this the conclusion : NO Strong Atlantik or not at all.

B ; staying cool ,en possible cold weather on his way back later with possible also snow en wintry weather , frost widespread.

So lets wait together for the fore some holy model the ECMWF . I am trilled en exiting.I have a good feeling overal in this.

It could be that we will face in march UK en Netherlands a litlle Nemo [ my opinion en CFS ]

Ok lets stop the analyse me for a while en just wait , with tea.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

There , you see ? look good there he is ! He is coming southwards , the Nordpool air !

Very major evolution from the GFS 18z.

Also the CMA is cold.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

It have some support Ec oper from the ensembles .

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Cma 12z The Chinese weathermodel seems to backing up the Ec 12z operationeel.

The other charts are still running.

I will post that later.