[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Ladies en gentleman we have a MAJOR projektion from the European model ECMWF from READING , A huge showdown .

Stay tuned for more analyse from my side.

I am waiting CMA for definitieve conclusions .

Hold on folks , hang on.I must say a stunning run ,it even surprise me little bit.

But still every thing is unsure , read my postings before.

But i have a good hope for prolonging , scharpening en also march winter.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

So I am back , you see GFS 12z now ? Complete different , end this is 12z no 06 pub run or wateffer.

End this means again cold.So i think lot of people here dont get my point good.

But ok we will see , i update the models with my vision.

Lets wait for the ECMWF again end CMA .

Just a short note to you all, arent you thinking why some models persist like me in the cold spells ?

Wenn the Atlantik zonaal would be strong at the present moment or the future we would not discuss this situation now , it would be clear en present to all of us .

En becouse it is unsure , fluent , different , not clear , tthat means to me something is going on.

En dont mark your self to MJO .

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

It is not over at all the struggle with the weathermodels.

I stay at the road for the cold options.

Cma en also other support is still there , also is see good signals also by the Ecmwf also EC 32.

Also CFS .

I want remind people that it can be winter also in march with snow.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

copy and paste job from yesterday, still a ton of uncertainty since the gefs and ecm ens mean are poles apart in FI.

Yes you have right , we will see , my friend , we will see !

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

No spring for Brittain is the opinion of the Chinese weathermodel CMA .

Just colder , so we will see !

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Look The ECMWF 00z ist identiek to the GEM 00z , [ i have posted the charts from Gem }

It wants take the blok towards Iceland.

ECMWF , GEM, CFS , versus GFS !

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

GFS 00z ensemble s , they lost the road, a complete mess , at very short term already , enormous spreading en difference s.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

CFS , climate/weather model the latest run 18z [ they alway scome later] shows ua this.

A little intrelude with mild air at medium range , en than a robuust cold snap shot.

Look the chart piece s, not far each other in the time frame.

We begin with a 174 hours chart.

Than at 228

En look at this chart with a major outburts of continental Arctische air !

The forbidden CA air can move or break out from there , .

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

While the GFS 00z is a drama run for cold , opposite is GEM 00z [ Canadian] stunning good.

Look the chart for the 180 hours.

A Iceland block , en cold low can move south from the nord.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

GFS 00z is Nigtmare run for wintry people.

Very bad , i dont believe it.

Gem 00z holding firm , consistent.

Look the chart from it.

It is very unsure at very short limit already between some models.

I think the cold options will win.

Btw unexpected a band of snow is moving from Belgium to me .

That is what i mean sometimes with last minute calculation with low s direction between warm en cold air.A minimaal difference can do lot of things change s.

I will make again some foto s for you at my galery.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

CFS 12z long termin.= cold.

CFS 12z ;The March theorie ? Staging cold ?

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Just short statement , becouse i see some people asking about.

CMA is recent upgrade, en GFS is using also data from them , they have co operation together.

So saying GFS is better than CMA is no fact.

And i look always each every model en hang to the wall en than i watch.

I can say that CMA score was very very high in december en januari.

I keep data from all models in grafiek..

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Look the GFS 18z version.

A yellow high 1045 hectopascal .

En low pressure in the Meditirean sea.

That means easterly flow for UK , cold version.

Later could become southeasterly flow for UK with good snow chances.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

CMA 12z 192 hours have a different option but also very pretty , it comes with a Atlantik block.

It wants to bring NNW or the nord in again , but could be turbulent by this chart.

Heavy wintry showers with gales possible in here .Heavy precipatation as well.

Snow in Schotland , and higher ground ,trending down to lower levels , not sure .

I am waiting still for the last chart from the Chinese Weathermodel CMA .

. . 192 hours.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

CFS montly is keep saying very cold februari 2013.

End the daly CFS version 1 end version 9 also hinting run after run , run after run for a cold march too.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Eps for N- Holland.

The controlle run is 100% backing up the operationele run 12z.

Very very interesting how we will see the future develepments.

I am waiting for some other data also from the CMA.

Watch out , he is not finisched yet , it seems it is ready but it is not.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Wouw Look at this great chart from the Cptec 12z [ Brazillian model] , exact the same als his precesescor the 00z , excact .

It is turning up the heat . No Atlantik.

Cool to cold weather or very cold opetion really et the table chanse.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

End also i expect great news also coming just in moment from the Braziliaan model en the CMA 12z.

The runs are running yet there.

I will post those charts en handle it with some analyes , i am very familiar with those model how to explain en to look at.

Very very good nigt tonight ,.i am very excited.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

ECMWF is the big news toningt, I am very glad that it did walk after mine vision.

Also GEM , Nogaps , Cptec, Cma . Retro proces almost certain en getting each day better.

This seems indeed fase 4 from gwo amp1.

The Mjo signals did fool lot of times this year.

Also there will be later on update about march from JMA 500 anomalie chart en also CFS.

Look at this chart ! End i expect it will get stronger en neasty colder later.

Winter is far from over yet .Mayby the best day of winter have yet to come.

All options open.

ECMWF 240 chart en before is super !

You can read all my postings en analys before here too .

Stay tunend.

I come back with CMA en CPTEC later en the latest CFS daily.

Hold on my Britisch friends.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Cptec firm en constistent with his Greenland high Idea end Bay of Biskaje Low.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

There he is the Cptec 00z , Brazilian model.

End also he is up to something.

a ; No Atlantic.

b ; strong nord high pressure.

c; A westerly block.

d; He is pullig out the cold pv near Canada/greenland end place it heavier by Siberie /Nova Zembla /Kara sea .

e; low trough near Italie./ End another one 500 km wsw from south Ireland heading towards spain.

Brittain on the cold side of the pattern also west europe .

Dont shoot the pianist

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

CMA 00z Cinese weather model is going towards the Greenalnd version like his previous runs from yesterday,.

Cptec 00z The Braziliaan model dont want b=nothing even from a interlude fas en has other version again cold , with a little slide low in for the UK en immediantely expanding Scandi H towards west .

Later i will post some charts , becouse both runs are still running , they are not finisch yet.

But i did some calculation .

Hang on for a wile it is very exiting wat is going on here,

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Controlle run is also wintry from the ECMWF 00z.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

After Gem the Canadian model wich was very cold en wintry pattern , now comes the ECMWF 00z with a huge operationele run.

This means a full scale conctructief retro proces .

If this become true it really will prolon the cold outbreaks with snow .

After that the Highpressure moves towards Greenland /Iceland at 240.

In that case , ist a full scale winter attack even as we go further in the month or beyond that.

Well at least something is going on people ,.Becouse look the GEM ect and the 500 mb anomalie charts ensemble.Nao /Ao combination index .

It might be not so ,but i really think we have a good chance for this verdion or other kind , but all wintry.

Becouse i really dont see a strong zonal atlantik.

Perhaps 2 or 3 days interlude by changing the watch orso.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Look again the latest CFS daily again the March cold wich i have predicted at basis os so many CFS daily runs.

But also version 9 is telling this now for more than a week.

Also some data from the Cma en JMA hinting that way , it doenst mean for sure afcors that that indeed wil happen , but he shows it every time , with some support now.

Look 1 chart from the latest 18z daily .

En you members en guest saw earlier lof of other charts from me about the CFS , we will continue to follow this op.