[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

The 00 has not run for tonight yet, well it has but it's not published yet, so kindly stop talking nonsence.

You dont nothing now all can see , GME 00z is coming about 30 minutes i prove to you .

Than everbody will see who is talking the true.

No problem.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Ok everyone here , sleep well , in the morning a big day for the weathermodels.

Look some nice charts from the WMC Moskou model.

I will try to come back in the morning, love you UK xxx.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

CFS persist , run after run.

Look march , wat is over ? Nothing is over until it is over.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Is HIRLAM for public use or just dutch met office?

Some charts public , other close , but wen pay than ok.

End i like the cards from weatherbell the 850 hp charts , beaytiful man.

But than they change the upset there en i had to pay only with goldencard or visa , that i dont have .

I tried to pay them otherwise but i failed.

Strange that lot of people from Europe dont pay for the weatherbell as member . I tried at least.

You know all that is the site of master doctor Ryan Maue , i like him only from there .

They are very conservative in their also politics expression mixed with weather about climate change , thats my only problem with them.

Ok i rest some , than short wile i come something with again the Cptec en the CFS.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Snow update now , i have contacted al the netwerk service from me.

I am 100 % convinced for heavy snow in nord Engeland , midlands , driftsnow en the snow will go some further south .Also Schotland ect

Every possible heavy snow 10-20 cm or more with chanse of drifting.

EXcept the main south en soutwest ,but that is unclear to me.

Exuses , i forget to report that mostly is based on HIRLAM , Dutch model , but your wettermans use them frequent !

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

The Braziliaan model until 144 [ he is still running] .

It seems by them for option for again slide lows ?

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Snow update now , i have contacted al the netwerk service from me.

I am 100 % convinced for heavy snow in nord Engeland , midlands , driftsnow en the snow will go some further south .Also Schotland ect

Every possible heavy snow 10-20 cm or more with chanse of drifting.

EXcept the main south en soutwest ,but that is unclear to me.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

CMA 12z , wenn we discust models we discuss all model , Noboydy have rihgt to say this model is good or better or statistieks.

Ok CMA 12z , it seems to me clear that hew il bring again the noord flow again , building ridge en working out something with Greenland.

I am also tired about to hear Ec this wettergod , lI have prove i can send one data here that at 30 dec2012 that i predicted exact , exact the wintry inval at 10 januari 2013 en Hell no it was not the ECMWF , he came as last aan boord.I have proof in mine own forum , facebook , hyves, twitter.

I can show you. The title of the saga was the Battle of Holland.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Wen tou let see Nae , why not Hirlam , than we can decide our own wich way to go.

Than we have all together.

Me i put alle model together , CMA , EC < Nogaps en put it in my head en make 1 model.

I take ensemble from al togeteher en make 1 super ensemble.

Statistieks are not for granted .

Wast it by the way the Gem who forecast als best for the snowblizad nemo in USA/Canada ?

Not your EC ect.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Problem is Ryan neither the CFS or NOGAPS have very good verification stats. I'd agree though that 14 runs in a row is interesting, it could of course be consistently wrong just like the ECM was for 3 days earlier in week

Than wat we are doing here ? Make otherwise a ECMWF FORUM.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Were is the Atlantik ?

Were , this they diddnt show you.

Nothings is for sure , not about even 5 hours from now , this becouse of the solar wind en the magnitude as draaiing vd aardbol.

Also i see snoow for UK.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Wait for Nogaps charts ! 18z.

End they are not tellig that CFS run after run run after run is spitting winter march , 14 runs at a row .

Wait we see , game on !

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Wait for Nogaps charts ! 18z.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

GEM 12z is very good for the track of the low foor the SE ect.

Alle options open stil.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Nogaps at 84 hours ; Lot of places in UK cold with snow .

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Look at Ukmo , look at that . Ukmo 12z is very cold from upper to low level.

End forget for a while the front of the band from the low , after that yoy wil bombarded with heavy snow showers from the east en bitterly cold wind from the NE -E en windchill.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

So by 6pm Sunday most of the UK having positive DPs so mostly rain to anything below 200m:

It say total nothing , my county level is 0 lowest point.

Bodem , temperatuurs was 3 celcius , dewpoint plus 3 , then in middag came heavy snow shower from nordsee , en hail , everyting is withe here now , at this moment becouse of the intensity .It is on the street .So explain now than he ?If you dont belive me , i put picture here , otherwise look the snow radar from Holland en you see dry snow ven with postief T.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Nogaps 00z persist.

He dont give up . Yet better even Brittain , he wants to bring it to your doorstep.

With the beast grom the east ?

Great synoptical chart from the navy model USA .

In this case cold wintry weather wil remain en perhaps prolongatie possible.

Before that there is the snowbom at monday , en afterwards your coastal area from the east sie will pe pounded with heavy snow showers.From the noord to the south.

Wel wat we have here o GFS 00z , well from the planet of mercurius he he is THE GREENLAND H.

Finally ?Too late too little ?

We will see.GFS 00z.

Ryan wouldnt that chart be a long way back for cold?

No .

I feel the atmosfeer will break this episode down at 15 -20 februari , after that he wil change , they want to work this time for the originele Greenlan High en cold spells from artic. Thats also a option,.

As i said earlier there could me a interim fase with some warming air end before the other pattern will take the power.

I am talking now very long termin about 17 a 18 th februari .

I didnt sleep the whole night wundering were wil we go from here.

Anyway Ryan you make me chuckle on here so please keep posting and dont get offended if people dont agree with you.

People have right to disagree with me .

End i dont get offendend by anything in basis,.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

GME 00z from Offenbach Germany.

It seems to be almost sure that everywere the rain or sleet will become snow also at the lower levels.

End also in the SA , thats my opinion for UK.

For me in The Netherland , we did get good heavy snow showers in the middel en the nord en the south.

But Sunday/Monday we will become for certain the

The Mega snowbom in the Netherlands en also UK i Think from the Nordpole Airforce

Ukmo 00z is good until this last chart , it show the Azoren H sinking , .

Than could tempomoraly the temperatuur go in the lift.

Just 1 piece of the puzzel.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Cptec 12z , The Brazilian model is finished yet.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=303931#.URQ-95IWcDw.twitter

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

That is it , that was the problem this year with the NAO.

Wenn the Nao in januari was much - nagtive in januari we could have been seen something like 47 for brittain.

But lets look now to feature.

NO,i dont like it either,the 18z gfs romoved it so theres a bonus,we shall see

I dont see that as a major problems , it can confused the models some little bit.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

We need them both neg for stronger signal i think

the AO going in the right direction,just need NAO to jump on board.

That is it , that was the problem this year with the NAO.

Wenn the Nao in januari was much stronger in januari we could have been seen something like 47 for brittain.

But lets look now to feature.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

It means snow also for the SA on your chart i see 120 , end 96 ok .

Nice Charts/

That is Bracknell.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Well I thought the NAO/AO are representative of what the models are showing currently, ie if we had a massive 1050 Greenland high it would be strongly negative and a zonal flow would be positive. This is what I was told a while back I think.

What is more relevant to our weather though I wonder could any experts correlate what is more important with regards to cold? (Ie is a negative AO better than NAO?)

It must me the combination, also wenn the blok is too far west , brittain nor west Europe wil get meridionaal south , only -negative NAO doesnt alway means cold /or winter.

Greater chanse with combi.