[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

GFS op beginning to get the idea now, and ECM ens suite backs the GEM and GFS suites with the NAO:

AO too:

Certainly tentative signs to back the recent height anomalies of something happening around the Greenland locale perhaps into the second half of February - the path from now until then remains uncertain though

SK

To this is very good , Combi Ao en Nao indeze very good.Its making me now more stronger in my visions.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Snow is really sometimes nowcast.

In Netherland now turn every precipitation yet into snow.

Dry snow , look at the radar. By T van 1 -2 celcius.

at 10 cm 0.5 .

En the farizeers told on tv in would be rain with their models.

Wel , this is example. So snow is very hard to predict the ammaunt /timing turn over ect.

But still nice we can talk about that.

Tommorow i will get from a britisch boy the kard from Brittain level to the sea en heighst.

So i personaly will join you ens guide at sunday/ monday by the probaly event snow.

I must study lot your country , especialy the SA . .

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Again support now from the 18z/00z/06z Cfs for a cold march 1e decade.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

CMA 12z finished now , the last chart.240 hours.

Cery cold for btittain with a strong easterly wind far over Ireland end the Atlantik.

Brittain lock down in a cold pool.

En btw look the colour canging by Greenland en East Canada.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Nogaps 18z , still cold In britain at 144 .

High Pressure seems to me getting stronger by Navy model .

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

T144, this run is only going one way from here..... Ryan Dutch Weatherman, please fill in the gaps

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?18

Ok wait , i usualy wait until GFS 18z is finished.

It is sometimes very strange runs the 18z from GFS. Moment.

I want finisch the CMA .

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

If Cma 12z wil come out , than its worldnews.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

LOOK at THIS , look at this , CMA 12z is pounding en pounding away with a easterly.

This is amazing even for me , i am perplex even this is virtueel.

This is a Major event by the CMA.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Now it is getting realy interesting by CMA 12z , .

Look at this , we see a High 1040 HP , but look the color in there in the core of center.Uou see he is filling ist wit stabiel air massa.

Make him strong.He is getiiing yellow colloured litlle bit.

But tha wat , ANOTHER glide low dooming up.

Wat the hell is going on.

It seems to me a trilla from manilla by the weathermodels.

Stay tuned for more breaking weathermodel news , i think we are up to something very big like prof DR jennifer told us from the United States. Or it wil be nothing.

The battle with the polar bear or a dream , a hoax ?

Soon we will find out.

The Polar Bear is loading hin self up for the attack , the invasion of brittain , a army of Polar Bears is ready.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

CMA just a Easterly flow , simple as it it. Until 168 hours.

The run is not finished yet.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

But look even in the false oper 12z EC , you see something very interesting.

Look around the east side by 216 en 240 , just look.

Even if the oper is outlier.

Its just hinting something to me.

I come back later.

East from Iceland /around Spitsbergen , Jan Mayen.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

But look even in the false oper 12z EC , you see something very interesting.

Look around the east side by 216 en 240 , just look.

Even if the oper is outlier.

Its just hinting something to me.

I come back later.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Pluim Holland oost.

Sorry NO Holland 15 daagse EPS.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Pluim Holland oost.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

They put already Bilt eps here , every ok , en route.

Dont worry.

Only the snow forecast for sunday/monday is difficult .

But you see agian , yet in my country lof of snow showers , the office didnt predict it .

At this moment wile i man writing to you.

Only the Hirlam had it good for Holland today.

But the people were sceptic , like here , wel let them look outside now.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

EC Moyenne is good , Ec oper is false outlier at the end.

End Cma 12z als , look at that at 144 .

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Is it alloud that i put the name of my weathermodel forum here . Not for looking members , but than you can see i am Dutch en i run for 20 years weather .But you can see only the frontpage of it , becouse it is a closed forum .

I admit i am different en some funny than other weathermans , but they are so bored with oldschool faschion talk.

Ok very soon EC en other models will begin their 12z oper runs.

I must see i see very good postings en charts here.

Good work people , good wordk you are better than me en the rest , i am proud of you all.

It is about the weather en the people who hve eyes en sense for that.

Ok now serious , wait for ECMWF the mother of oll weathermodels.

[Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards]

Ok Hold on , now finaly some people are starting to believe , me THERE is no Atlantik , was not will not.

Now is the beginning of the coldmaggedon en snowbombs.

This wil continue in march.

You see Ukmo , Nogaps , GFS , Gem 12z All have shut their mouth now end they are walking with me .

End i ask you to walk with me als wel.

At 01.00 Dutch Time i will come with a Major projektion .

The illusion wat some peole had created tha the winter is gone will be soon be burrried under the snow.

Now Greenland want to join the winter troops with us.

Stay tunend for update s.

ECMWF , JMA , BOM , CPTEC, CMA will speak soon.

Dont be afraid .I am with you.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

Again the CFS model 18z en now the 00z is supporting my vision als for a very cold march 1e decade with lof of snow.

-14 at 850 HP in Engeland.

Look at this , look at this , were is the Atlantik !

CFS 00z.

CFS 18z.

1 March 2013 , winter start in UK .

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

En there is the another glide low,.

Brazilian model 00z.

Your wisch is my command.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

Anomaly charts - not height charts. Again this has been pointed out numerous times that an anomaly is just that.

And the anomaly for the first to months of winter so far at 500 hPa:

It is not the anomaly chart that has the error - moreso your ability to read them correctly.

Edit: note to self read through the thread further to see if anyone else has made the same point!

Thanks IF and JH

Thanks , .for your constructive clear message . I hope the people wil learn now finally.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

Ok , I only want to support some people here.

I have my self weather forum , i am the admin from holland.

But i have contacted also 5 britisch wetterman , end they agree with me , .

You know them , but the agree with me in private.

But yes i be aware that UK is UK en not Holland.

Dont worry , .

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

Incidentally, the GFS operational remains far out of touch with its ensemble suite (along with that of the GEM) in terms of its NAO/AO outlook:

Extended ensemble outputs continue to favour any stronger heights to be focused around the Greenland locale:

Medium range outlooks remains uncertain, and I suspect we may end up just on the wrong side of the Atlantic vs Eastern block, but as GP as alluded to over the past few days, the 11-15 day signal seems even stronger at present

SK

Thank you sir for your excellent postings.

That i like .

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

Apologies for typo (I am on my phone) - it should have said see (and I need to learn to read!)

Ryan it can rain with uppers at -10c if there's a warmer layer at the surface boundary - equally it can snow with 850's at 0c.

Nobody is disputing it would likely turn to snow, it's just likely on current face value output to be rain initially

SK

Yes yes , but i said also it will turn over snow .\.

End look your wind direction .

Look the douwpunt.

Look the tickniss of the cold dam.

End its also cold at low level.

Why are you stribbeling.

Even the highest resolution model WRF 10 km.

Is saying possible 20 cm snow or more , WRF say that ,. If you angry for the HIGHEST short term resolution model the most accuraat for this range , than go fight with them.