tight isobar

It’s raging.. but not in limpit- mother mode. The ventrice thoughts are of proportion!- And the persuasive thoughts are of Russian peninsula throwing- and not modelling wide/ west enough.. as the madden Julian oscillating phases are in switching mode!.. the 60n zonals- are in scattered modular atm- and as I mentioned bk in early December!. Viewing 10hpa - torching was premature!. But now it’s also because it’s catch up of sourcing @ the layers!- are we bound for an- imminent/ immediate turn about?!- unlikely... but the LRFs and indeed deciding plots could be underplayed .. in a big way.. the marker date 15/17 January!! We’ll see

The trouble- or indeed- beauty of weather/ meteorological insight is .. it’s not- And probably never will be an exact science. So with that in toe- with a desire/ craving for certain weather types.... the natural process- is for diversity .. like or lump... it’s a funny old game.. for sure...!!..

And “of note “- it’s always fun looking at single suite perturbations.. but in real life ...unless you have other supporters in the suite you draw those.. they are counterfeit!!!

There is - finally- from “ my view point anyway, a little optimism rolling forward! The B- plots are now almost stale but carry a little weight for the madden oci phases! - again applying the raw ens GFS switchboard spags... @ London ones... at least gives some hope (perhaps )! Indeed AAM - and upper layer dynamics are of wanting atm!.. However, we could have a curveball here- not just on the sync point basis, but with an override of large scale deciphering plots- miss eyeballing the minamal open sea plots @ island disconnects??! - it’s for sure in grand scale a little downbeat- for mass polar dripping on our quarter atm- but ... reading between the hardcore lines.. there maybe something gaining of something to bear in mind. The Angular momentum resolve- may if of - big luck aid - a height formation roller “at quick notice “- in the Scandinavian section! There is buckled jet Synoptics- that introduce PM flow... raising! And the raws are imo certainly miss- modelling polar density- on formats!!!!

Mass scatter! But ya need the mean-And the green linked together... and even those plots- have ina nutshell lost the plot!.. The drivers are not dictating, it’s honestly a suck it n, see... we can pick perturbations from either side-@ Mobile- mild-@cold- epic!! However they will nigh on Always be there if you seek them- but ya need big %age agree for a possible more defined forecast!.. atm it’s we are all a tad worse for wear and intoxicated ! So we’ll chuck up everything.. And nothing!. It’s certainly got the feel of something is gonna give...

I agree good post- stuff- yet rossby waving Pacific massing release..is IMO the gospel out amongst a lot! But for the grander scheme- and that’s my thorn! Waving is ripple effect- yet there is a lot of ignorance for pebble in water effects- and larger scale lands. And barrier effect - horizontal p- waving- is most noted when landmass is bounced and sea/ oceanic absorbing is ultimately realised! And that ALWAYS falls on the ATLANTIC flow- and is thee jet- decider! So my point being that AGAIN- we reside in a very very fickle plot- and the overall bk- reverebs- are not critical at all until way after they have already happened! Edit: anyway I’ll wash away with this 1 now .. and keep an eye on the here n now

Yeah crazy temps in mainland Europe!.. I will never discount the outer sigs/ telecons- However the emphasis is fraught- especially with SSW- to which we need calculating factors to impact down welling/ dripping of lucky proportion!- it’s not hard to note- that without nil impactual tropospheric/ stratospheric sync- the USA (even down to drop state level)- can And do get drag of polar vortex spilling- because of landmass fact... lots of people assume/ say we need all the dices to roll ona 6”- yet for me.. we need blind rolling and confusion! Because that’s frankly where our best winter shots come- out of what looks like nothing- and I’ll reiterate, ALL outcomes “ ultimately come from raw modelling “- and usually, basic plots! You can keep updating technology - and have ultimately another problem- rather than resolve! A mans bamboo stick- can sometimes catch bigger fish than ya carbon stretch- with bite alarms that never really ring!!! - being a mid/ top latitude island- should be the scoop for forecast/ deciphering-?! We are a- climate to ourselves- uniquely.. !

Honestly- it’s the lucky 15 bet.. all the evens rump home.. and the 50-1 shot is leading but dismounts the jockey at the last fence!!..- we need a reality check on outer dynamics , and zone into water local Synoptics firstly- and second jet alignment!.. and tbh that’s it in such situations. The jet WILL ultimately nearly always split /separate/ dip/ arc around our domain! - I’m all for outer sourcing/ telecons, but let’s have it right- how often are they are reliable/ fruition out for the uk!?? ... even the upper layers are probably the only semi reliable dynamics! Yet even those displace/ or evolve to a “nearly plot “!!.. Anyway as again we have a notable northern hemisphere shape! - and one that if evolves into a possible drip down for NW Europe- it’ll land timely And for wanting..... I’m going ya- ole fashioned, and day to day ops-to ens... it’s an easy life that way!

Trolly through - mountain torque syncs-the rolling plots evade anything uk bound- we could have record breaking HLB- with eye watering height pressure- And still sit in the shovel plots!!!!!

Most certainly! And Angular momentum/ mjo orbital plots etc etc mean jack all to our island!! Here’s a perfect snapshot - example of simple consequence!!

Indeed! That geographically have to land exactly on point- for a singular block format to cold drafting into the uk,,!!!

Giant gold nuggets in a field of tin.. however keep detecting and ya have to find at least some gold.. the mjo forcing is soon to override!.. I’m done with teleconections- atm for the stark reasons of my former post! ..minimal land mass encroachment- and dynamics of massive miss- direction!!!

Deep cold at every corner ! Yet getting incursion into the uk is graft an, a half ! It’s not even problematic energy syncs.. it’s just the fold of being a maritime island plonk in the middle of absorbing cold landmass latitudes!! .. with such formats in the top hemisphere.. we surely have to nick the cherry punet soon!!

Happy new 1 people - and may the oddness of our fascination continue @ weathers wonders. Onto the 09z I’m ment 00z

I’m just gonna leave this here .

On a simple basis- and as I quoted b4 leading up to our post cold spell.. the members can drift.. but that old green line will take em or bake em... and it’s increasingly wanting to belly flop.. the pm inflows is in sync @ inbound will be a different breed to the norm- with an upper level to mid vortex waining to the north eastern quad- hemisphericaly!!.. it’s what the upper levels- and momentum carve out after that?!!

You enjoy bbq s in 8c temperatures

Indeed.. and some claim the gfs is cannon fodder!?.. yet the ec46- is as fickle a forecast tool on the slab.. as for the met- LRs.. there so bipolar they need medication!!.. January is an open book.. and once the jet-starts going missing.. so do the Iberian /Azores process...and we are seeing clear/ concise Synoptics of this unfolding going forward.. utter nonsense writing off a whole winter month.. no matter the current sigs!!!!!

The control going for it here @AMP

@reiterate- it’s previo sister suites had hints of this.. so certainly an encouraging sync... atm anyway !!

Yeah- certainly more fickle since the upgrade in data!.. can we assume Perhaps it’s just finding it’s feet ?- b4 tightening up in its output???

Very close to some interesting Synoptics this morning! Via 6z - and tbh it’s not so far (operationally)- from what the 00z ens were starting to sniff at... keep the faith

Just a quit 1 this morning. Scandinavia height plots “ will nearly always”- be modelled to far south in the initial stages!- And with evolving pressure in the upper layers/ influencing the vortex.... even more so! I’m not going into telecons- as atm it’s pointless... start again bk to raw modelling... I’ve an idea we have take off.... but we’ll be going with small evolution- Synoptics!! I think MANY are underestimating what could reasonably soon translate/ transpier.. to a fare flip......

Oi oi whiffs of easterly incursion due-to heights reform of placement!- are we finally starting to see the evolution desired @euro heights pending??!!00z gfs Ukmo+144 hrs certainly has “starting pistol Synoptics “ also!!

Very impressive young man