tight isobar

Certainly. A nego- CET is on the books for July as a whole now....however the AGM is slowly coming into forcing...don't write off August as the monster month......for Heat transfer. Into our latitude..A close eye needed !!

Non even here- as I expected!. A few hrs Wednesday of snow b4 the mild sector forcing infiltrated. Transition was the by word, and that’s that until nxt year away from the already proged areas north!! ciao for now

Taking euro/ n- hemisphere raws for marginal, precipitation types is now null, n- void! - if carlsberg did “ now casting “...

An easier clasp of evolutions- ssts are Mass factor at most times, yet into the meteorological spring- they can/ will be beneficial with such dynamics!.. however it’s not rocket science- nor meteo- depth, to paw thought on the maritime influence west- to east. Where the Atlantic bounding formats inevitably syphon stagnant TM air, while the North Sea verses the roll of polar continental stamp!- And the point in basic, is that both aids, n, reverts a global minuscule island/ and it’s mass differences in overhead fruition!!! In this occasion- it’s a worthy punt MOST will see dendirte- ( snow) in some appliance!!! .. yet now without doubt, some will see memorable snowfall!!! - lastly once again a milder interlude looks game, but I can’t see it overriding a mid latitude in dripping!!!!

The DAM line will indulge much further south than stale data suggests!! Some news making snowfall- looks inevitable!!

The points - predict- are now firming! Itsa London / Home Counties watch through nxt 18/40 hrs!! The meteocial point de- ros/ and wet bulbs will be vital!!.. the prognosis of ebb. N flow/ via Cutting lps and digging of polar air. Will be SUBSTANTIALLY driven!!- I’ll put my punts out later

Longer term- it’s increasingly likely of a short milder interlude, as fronts absorb and make inroads- b4 the cold starts plunging bk once more... “ highlighted perfectly on the 18 supporting ens.. @ London ones!!

The eps 12z therms/ @ 2m temp outs highlights the divergence on transient precipitation types. For this period Tuesday/ Wednesday, marginality is poker play!.. the moisture incursions are on point- and it’s all eyes on bulbs/ dews south of mid England/ wales!!.. then it’s how much advance fronts make... there is likely a classic rain to snow- then revert for lower levels. Although this is as fickle as it gets for predictable outcomes!! Somewhere “likely mid- upper England/ wales .. are going to get a more than noteworthy snow twist... we watch and wait!!!

Anyway- now we can start the snow plot assumptions!! If I lived Birmingham northward.... I’d be- becoming confident of ground accumulation... and probably notably so!!!

of Note this @even 78 hrs via the gfs 18z- the notion of blocking formats out wide- now starts effect jet modelling- And Will be the obvious bearer of 850 overhead penetration!.. anything after this is pretty fraught ... for the angle of holding or folding!!!

.. it’s as- if the German mod is “ for spite “ at somehow finding and ekking out as much west based Atlantic and geographical upstream drama as possible!!!.. imo at short / mid range .. it’ trumps the American model for made up energy!!!

Decide what ya will on the 18z gfs rollout!... but 1 things for sure- after the op has trickled out, ya can now start looking at supporting data.. if it’s precipitation type you want to evaluate. And strictly for personal preference, the Arpege is a worthy flow at- 24/48 hrs out......

The usual deciphering syncs apply!.. regarding possible white - to wet precipitation!.. And also the usual applies to marginal/ overhead fruition! The game could change largely ona geopgraphical point scale over nxt 24 hrs!! .. to me Barry .. to you paul!!?!!

Your energy suppliers looking at today’s outs.....

Complete layer- vibrations through the 12z sets!! And a txt book pv switch east / north east!.. some news making weather increases in likelihood. And the supports throughout the 12 sets should be preety striking.. I’ll quote and snapshot em after the Euro run !!!!!’

Today we have a classic op- ensemble dynamic!!. And this is where 1 chases the other b4- the switch!gfs 6z has probably?!- got the sync data... of layer ramifications ‘.. while the ensemble/ support- will/ should start deciphering!!. Looking at- the spreads, notes “ what will likely be”- a top end = mid/ upper latitude fast forward support!!!.. the op- raws will imo follow each other now @12z “moreso “.. then all suite supports- should follow quite conclusive.. and rapidly!!! ... News making weather.., @ probably!!!

Yes .

It’s headed for the books this 1 !!!!!

A cross polar split ..is coming!!!

Great post . The nao/ AO precursors, are bound by - relevances- of Pacific ridge placement. I’ll reinvigorate, the notions of circulation blocking forms. This is cat. N mouse bounding!.. with IO(Indian ocean phasing) ... And rotate Pacific punching,It’s circumstances of race!. A fare bound block of even MLB- will/ could be a trigger point for polar dripping! .. and NOW this could be the Madden j- oscillating stage!.. as orbital syncs.. start settling with AM- and upper layers finishing!!! - take the countoures at face value.. and stale.. and fresh data!

I don’t discount your ‘Wanting ‘ .. it’s quite feasible that we could end up in a large arc block.. and have a drag on equatorial based winds!.. late February!.. Although both cold bias- and evolving progs... I think it’s unlikely!!.

Tbh- the ensemble uk plots- especially @850 hpa- are in the que atm... waiting to see what bargains are still in the store... the flip or not.. could be shocking at short range over the nxt 5 days.. as input starts absorbing!!

So- ina square box .. we have borederline reversal of zonals at medium upper level, a still not deciphered sync- between a complete trop- acc split/ to a partial split and even a notable flux/ punching lower level near split @500 gs. However as I said b4- a displacement and even regeneration of the mother lobe polar vortex at its stomping ground Canadian/ Alaska driveways- could be of serious benificial load.!! As regeneration - with certainly consist of an, at least partial displacement to the Eurasia/ Siberian sector!, as all the layer dynamics of upper atmospheric warming- plays out And decides to which layer platforms evolve!... the crux is... the race for any mid latitude block formats to race to a notable geographical point- either way north east/ north west... or indeed a double whammy of trough spilling of both??!!.. the clock is ticking.. And there’s is still a gold pot for us at the end of the rainbow - .... the down draugting and awaiting impact, of to what degree are the obvious for possible outcomes!.. a rapid but temporary reversal of z- winds are my punt- b4 an upwelling sorts to realignment!.. I can’t see ANY “quick troposphere responses “ (IMO)- it’s how quick the baselines @ 500- can exelarate getting decent MLB formation in place- b4- or as upper layer workings start responding!!!... it’s about now... all above will start their mechanisms of a race for the line... and the outcomes could be vast!!!!!... Stick to ya 500 geo pots - and look for Pacific/ euro- Atlantic blocking formats.. And let’ the upper layers play out - for now- ...

A split gains momentum into modelling now!!.. something I’ve been waiting to see. A displacement is starting to look more than ample for something very interesting into late February!!.. definitely structure wobbling now... And likely the beginning of some cracking outs on the raws... has winter saved it’s best until last... possibly