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Everything posted by tight isobar
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models now on the cusp of cross boundary deciphering .. there were bound to be wobbles-?miss - matching, As we have oceanic/ atmospheric dismay!.. the n- hemispherical syncs are now stabilized in at least “ more or less “… so the drop folds should now shortly become resolute in forward compare/ solidity’s…- I’ll drop out now, as there is as important matters at hand @ Arsenal- west ham… ciao fa now -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Away from the usual cold shenanigans! Another about to be named 1- incoming 30/31.. needs an eye this !!@ no pun intended … -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
now as- again that’s a correct direct for cold intro… the members are paying their bills… and mingling nicely -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
.. with an arctic profile in forward situ.. mlbs will be ‘more’ than amicable- on the swing -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A few snapshots of the f-12z eps!.. they speak for themselves!! Lat AT block and an open door for arctic/conti- arctic incursion!!.. .. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
.. the energy dynamics are on the sauce 12z ecm.. the ens should highlight this!.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Once again - The emphasis firmly on even shallow MLBs - and what than can deliver for the uk at this time of year!.. I’d say we are almost certainly walking into a cold spell past January 1/2…I’ll await the completion of the 12z b4 any further analysis today!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Now that’s an interesting ensemble. And strays yet stays within its realm b4 base dropping!. The perturbations plots will tell more .. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The bearing fruits of mlbs and an arctic profile to match… and this a probably cause.. even b4 ramifications on the upper layers…. Winter likely gets going within reasonable time params… over to the supports.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On the bounce- And an illustration of a rapid movement response @ inverted flux around the pacific- and vortex dissolve at point limpit!.. allowance for reasonable mlbs and polar spillage..at reasonably short/ mid range.. we’ll still await the later response also going forward.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
PAC- ridge extension on the 6z. This as again will have both massive impacts and reverberations on the syncs… the arctic profiles will surely become of decent viewing!.. and in turn be fruitful for NW Europe.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A blend of - the American/European/ German London ones. Still scattered- yes… trending colder …..? - most definitely!. An interesting boxing day of outs coming up? .. for sure . -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
W-seaboard mass ridge reaction to the layer impacts will eye catching now- going forward!!… the ops will likely take on eye watering Synoptics here on in.. and we’ll look for more solid response/ reflections in the ENS-supporting. Things starting to ramp up now . -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even the very early stages of the 18z are looking to set up a typical QTR.. and in turn vortex hammering!! A Christmas classic beer run setting up here !! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Merry Christmas .. one n, All. And the output should soon start strong assumptions on the upper layers .. have a good en. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Singular snap gefs 6z geopots @ 500 that blocking is becoming both steadfast/ extensive. The run for the desired alignment .. is triggered -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Big- signal. We gain on this -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed it does but by then - here there will be reverberated fluxes into the layers.. and with given waa notions that Canadian mother lobe will be draining dramatically, perhaps.. the dynamics are both good- And possibly very fruitful.. And have big aid- on rises at- And around the Scandinavian geographical. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s not to difficult to note this possibility of a downwards trend on the ens.. the ec are short atm but the American model ones are also on a similar page. 1 gets the feeling todays outs, will be quite telling.in regards to mid December . -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is a very favorable sync. And possibly starts the notion of wobbling in the upper layers!.. And is certainly of use going into December- the vortex is a shadow of its usual self!!!@ pacific/ Euro blocking formats.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
tight isobar replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs/ecm 00z @ 144 and the Atlantic gets in. Although I’d honestly await full suites today for definitive confirmation. As the energy runners have optional modeled routes which in turn could still have a say in length/ dynamics of milder incursion. Still a pretty messy picture from early mid- nxt week . A slight dusting here from a light flurry around 3;30 am. Keep watching