tight isobar

An overal great ec12z. And the floodgates opening wide for even Siberian inflow latter frames, Be some lovely looking ens from this run also…. Winters coming!!!

Has a very minor wobble but then gets there in great fashion144hrs… the waa punching deep.. but an eye on the Canadian energy sector here !!!’n

Cracking ensembles 12gfs- only a few stragglers now- the tight dropping clustering becoming very solid

Some pretty astounding runs this evening- especially just opening the door to winter- And as again, with such Synoptics expect those 850- inflow to continue the down drive into the UK..

They certainly do@850s things look primed indeed as me move forward- and once the cold takes a grip- those uppers will highly like start a further climb down. Good so far this morning

You wouldn’t kick this outta bed— And any cold pooling, will only increase as any blocking formats hold firm… keep watching!!

The ec Scandinavian energy’s-,on the bounce- and dilution AT waves…. Let’s hope this is the draw dynamics going forward…. For-upper lattitude micro systems will aid cleaning of 500 geopotential height….

Plots- in singular snaps. And highliting the spag- plots @ gfs. When the mean is breached in such member drop cluster- you know the sync is being recognized/ sussed!. Seeing’ no - definitive “ cross polar flow (nil complete upper layer dripping)_ shouts Atlantic repeative reload, of seaboard relaxation- And rejuvenated waa advance where it wants of needing. As you ALL await- watch the ec-12z trickle….. remember- the cold is inbound….. and will arrive.. let’s see the tapping Synoptics for draining of polar air!!.. the rest will soon begin to shape up.. via cross output suites..

When the ensembles are churning up outlier’s / operations/ and other dynamics via swings- left- swings right.. you can chuck away the always “ halfway house solution “- it’s all or crumbs here!… we just need to keep doing what we do best… watching…. There will be certainly some ruffling out pretty soon I think.

The wrap around low- along with large lobe energy forcing at point base Greenland- is not a positive notion! Although the 1 positive is perhaps the squeeze could aid a deeper impactual push into the polar depths- lots going on- and even more to be resolved!

As per due to being a polar maritime island- your nearly always going to have shortwaving actions as the models- and indeed energy dynamics complicate as oceanic inputs are vast!. However, this is all looking fairly positive for a dramatic change to a recognition of winter like weather. The minor dynamics will be as usual an interesting viewing as the polar outbreak takes hold-?Then- And then only can we begin to look for deeper influences…

EPS 12z gfs 12z ens/ ecmwf ens- .. these are formats are of want n need if you are a winter possibility number- the concepts of blocking and cold infer are of worthwhile mention- on the cusp now of a cold spell. And the draw gets tight..?we ARE rolling

Paramount blocking- are we on a scope of notability….possibly

If the German model12z is leading the other suites this evening… it’s time for the 1st BOOMS of the season- the evolution is becoming cleaner and more concise

I’m holding bk until the 12z drop- But things are ramping up big time here- winter beckons

The handbag’s are coming out!!- patronizing one and other is as worthy as an ashtray ona motorbike 🏍 .. turn it in

Ok .. taking the geo pots @500- .. the cause of not is… the ecm folds and now wants to be the American model for fortune’ !!- the East/ west basing is of watching!-… the sister geps, throw’s a maybe- maybe not sync?!… Like a broken record - but the AM- is screaming disruptive polar vortex as coupling gets prepped- then dilutes as angular momentum- and Nino influence lobs a northern hemisphere spanner in the works! - I’ll post the ssts tomorrow, as the surcharge gains. The gfs raw / op- Will likely be the dynamic note, when it comes to an- arctic outbreak in our minimalist maritime island… I’ll hold bk on posting the sea tops/ surface plots. My punt anyway is a troposphere depletion - with a strat fold” not hold”- as the vortex try’s to make its comfort zone at the Canadian geographical!. If we can get to 144 hrs via the raws- ops then the northern hem- upper level plots/views will be noteworthy…. Keep watching

Great post and an - honestly 1 at that- the outer telecoms will be firmly put to the test here !!!..

I’m liking the madden oscillation -into phasing nicely- and rattles a classic nino verse… something brewing???- yeah there certainly is!

Let’s tally down ere @108 hrs is the miss- or point dynamic!!.. the ball of wool tightening.. we need unraveling today around this timeframe!!

Let’s get the cake sliced- pac ridge n Atlantic prog shaking hands- then shortwave drama gets diluted!!

Just very quickly a wonderful - graphic illustration via the gfs 3D model of probable polar incursion this out isn’t used posted nearly enough imo. It’s just a shame the upper values aren’t accessible on this ie-10 hpa etc.. anyways- things cranking up a gear now in the winter possibilities zones- over 2 the 6z suites… keep watching @850 hpa @ jet stream

Get t’up there Chavy... and the verse of lat blocking remains … intriguing to say the least!

We’ll draft- n take the EC at dynamic value and we’ll add outer parameters ina scale of issues data stats - even as they stand. Surface values and Julian forcing is “clearly playing catch-up “.. keep watching- winter IS coming

Well as they roll- the shorter term ones-.. that cluster dynamic is tightening!.. so short / medium term the gfs is steadfast in its overall outs!!!! Edit: apologies for the adds etc on attachment, I’ll crop n edit from now on- enjoy ya Sunday