tight isobar

Wel bone picking it’ is- but the gefs/ eps doesn’t take much index pattern looking!! The draw is there .. via top Scandinavian blocking signature!. These being the suite 12z format without 2m- and raw 850hpa!. Because it’s pointless, as an evolutionary trait/ prognosis!.. it’s purposefully worthy though!- as the structure of shallow = deep minamal plots can/ WILL mean vast difference.... and they are even out to day 5- not stone set!!!.. let me say THIS again.... a draw of worthwhile cold is still well open..... and maybe your eyes will be as we watch the HP fruition !!

The drag n dredge via cold pool accumulation is worthy!.. although I’d go as far to say again.. the micro anomaly’s are twisted knickers!!!.. and need unfolding of need.. that applying a back door- drill for more notable incursion... And NO all above wasn’t of crude implying .. serious note: there is a clear checker plause for a more notable drill @ 850 draw!!

Taking this ona RAW basis- it’s the clearest indication of a “ quick tropospheric response as you’ll see”!!! Itsa classic fold in dynamics!...away from this notion... the drill of polar continental incursion- is still worthy of watching.. nxt 5/8 days!!!

Redundant/- yet creative cold pool uk encryption wises up a little!. And this should be noted for the clause of gain- as watery Synoptics, can neither dispele/ displace- incursion!!! Ok NO beast rolling sync!.. but as I say numerous times..... there IS lots of scope for an, increase in sharper incurring cold @ 850 hpa.. this is an interesting plot ...

A decent example-@-8 850s over the south as miss- modelling of sorts play around with placement out east/ north east... there’s still a way to go in deciphering both upper levels- and direction of ground/ overhead temperature!!

.. as I’ve been saying nick.. there’s still some petrol in the tank on this... and “just that “ the high is meandering around suite 2 suite.. it’s not gonna take too much at all to get a decent draw on more juicy upper airs!.. and I’m sure the METS take will still have mention- of this as a possible dynamic!!..

The drag n, draw for nxt weeks colder incursion- should not be “ prematurely underestimated “!! There’s scope for a delve into much more notable upper inflows!!... watch this space out to the 00z suites!!

It’s easy to discount an- operational suite.. but when you have multiple member notifications- @ ensemble draft.. seasoned participation... should stand up!

Naivety - is a wonderful thing!. Yet we are getting some close quarters on the GFS operational. And can for a long time (perhaps) have a large pv Canadian drop- that benefits the roll into what is modelling!? . I’m sticking hard-@ Scandinavian formation- that intails a polar continental feed into our cell!!. We can all say otherwise- and it may fail... But this has been a dynamic for a “long time imo@.. as per we’ll see by fruition!!!!

AKA- destructive belly flopping!!.. take 1 suite GFS 18z.. and mix in ttbs.. notice needs to be applied

Out of bed- ya “wouldn’t kick it”!. And the lowering of heights in reasonable reliable sync time.. should have ya wondering .. this is a REAL poke notion within the nxt 5/8 day formats... keep em coming!!

The crux- of warm- outliers, is what you’d want to see via chucking suites- b4 any easterly incursion!.. as the mobile syncs gets misinterpreted due to model bias/ deciphering!!.. another feather in the possible oute- note of easterly/ PC twisting!

I’m having it full on.. I think the ec 12z will start the punching line also.. Scandinavian height.. and a a cold flow ARE inbound!!

So... ina nutshell.. we now perhaps start noted engineering of both structure, and jigsaw dynamics?!.. the W- pac madden julien OSC- just start handy orbital switch... as the blown up mother lobe polar vortex is on high tenacity- the whistle stops also note this (can’t post)! The top polar- polar continental quadrants- finding ample advection of both passing- And stagnant pressure in- And around the mid/ upper latitudes. The in depth polar annom, has also now “ perhaps “- held its position enough for back lodged tpv/ spv- dynamics?. Ensemble data is ( I hope)- now gaining on circular M- and morphing with raw data ops.. to note.. an alleyway of high latitude sneaking as again The MJO wanting compliments and even stalls exactions of jet rolling sequence?!.. that causing yet more confusion into raw data.. But noting a stern avenue for NE/ top lid Scandinavian blocking....And as again.. I can see this very feasibly as an evolution of note!!! Then it’s decip the proper to a cold dripping format/ formats.. into the maritime/ NW Europe advance?!.. I think we’ll see a ripe cross modelling plot/plots for this now.. here on in...... And the drainage of cold hopefully “ I think “- finds an easier route that could be proposed initially!... polar continental breach is raising its game!!.. And wasn’t it always... once the puzzle got sat with and elaborated!!!!!-

So the ecm12z doesn’t quite cut the mustard! Via polar forces..but I’ll hang In-There 2/3 days yet

Ya don’t need a HLB- for Scandinavian heighten formation!.. an- mlb- and a hp-cell in sync... are the order of the day. Again- some are gearing to hard for notable block formats.....when a rolling dynamics... will/ could load the gun!!

Anyway here The ecmwf @168 .. any guesses where the overiders are synced!!! the structure pv inflation mode- can.. And IMO be overridden!!. Let’s see ay!!

A tag “ harsh matt- “ don’t ya think!? .. the maddens aren’t even having impacts on the A- momentum prognosis right about now!.. and are a’ considered feature in prognosis into week 2! The 60n will it won’t it stabilise- or reverse then fold.. shouldn’t even cluster include, at a crossroad phase!!- the arctic shuffling annom,is in the same ballparks... as the AM- and supposedly “atm jet forcing “....

Not much more to add- atm.. as my last 8 posts or so have consisted of the same basis.. and that continues!!! Keep watching

Lastly b4 I get my head down- if we continue the notion via the gfs ens- on the notable absence of precipitation spikes... then that’s a sure sign of continental air draw coming into the sequence!.. this is noted starkly via the 18z supports... as ever we’ll have a butchers in the morning, for reference!!.. rest well

An, interesting set “ to say the least”- going into the new winter month (February)... I’m still talking it up@ a tap into some notable cold continental air mid nxt week and forward!!..

Remember 1/ either iether catch up.. go to the spag- ens on the 12z gfs and we’ll see where she sits!!!

Well I’ve been banging this drum for sometime @ polar/polar continental draft... and with the mjo formats— and evolution on the hemisphere.. why not indeed!.. however I’m still prone for earlier Synoptics of colder than currently modelling.. fairly soon now!- stay steadfast

Fully agree here. And The SSW straw- has distracted many , and taken the emphasis off- of more basic/ worthy prognosis!.. that believe it or not- has some real prospects.. if you care to look for them.

.. and a while b4 this- a smash n grab proposal-??!.. That would then change the uk plots- thereafter!