tight isobar

As about always- the break point @144 hrs 1- And the gfs is what you want- the wave stagnation is clear as the mlb puts up the stop signal.. we the have optimum time and releases for format.. and it’s hello cold inflow from the continental contingent.

The “ residual “- s- wave is being modified well imo via gfs- and will invigore, or aid jet alignment … we need a swift decline on a southern trade- to aid in concequeintial waa into the pole- Greenland points…. This is the starting trigger throughout operations at this time…good- or bad!!!

Is it going to get colder??… Almost certainly!- how cold and how long- is as open to debate/ deciphering as it’s ever been at this point. A mix of the gem/gfs/ecmwf ensembles 00z- these are the London ones. Let’s see if we can get some more notable firming one way or other today?. …. Keep watching!

Agree pal- but remember the American raw senior @GFS is Always by ocean- Atlantic definition.. the roll smelling mod for output sequencing.. b4 either being triumphant/ or at least , letting the other miss balance things. No in depth stuff from me just yet…. But I have a feeling we’ll be all wide eyed as we trip n fold forward. The trade wind index is also catching my eye just now… see ya after this Saturdays 12z

Indeed it is- but let’s see where the op -6z sits with its ensembles in a while.. with these now being stale data!@00z

The northerly outbreak next week gaining in potency!! And as - again the upper latitude sync remains of watching..

A step bk in the right direction for sure this morning!.. throughout output. Some notable polar profiles.

.. a close tri- sliced vortex- only instrumental canandian sector lobe infringement,And that pac- ridge is eye catching as we march on. And is of dynamics of note into thepolar place!ments..

IMO definitely an-El-nino frequency response- and corresponding reasonably well - to boot. The final 3rd of November is gonna get very interesting I think!!

My personal fav synoptic- The tri vortex ..

Scrolling through the 00z suites…. There are alternate evolutions - however the theme remains… for waa/ =blocking forms into and around the polar parts.

The EPS 500s going strong @ 12z @blocking notification..

As raws go- I’d await the complete set of 12z- as the gfs comes a little more in line with the ecm. And look for solidity’s or any backtracking!..

Those of a cold persuasion would certainly take these going forwards- The mean line increasingly belly breached! As the ops roll suite 2 suite- we’ll look for solidity last 3rd November in the falling ball park.. enjoy your day

The ec46 has miss managed blocking scenarios on several occasions more so the last few seasons! As per I prefer to stick to here n now raws for a more decisive scope on formats forthcoming! And let’s be fare- the directions of travel are very favorable right now!! Keep watching! The end outs should start to firm now if our chances are of realism!

Yeah certainly does I’ve got goggles on this evolve! As I’m now bouncing home2 home between north oxfordshire-border cotswalds)-And south East - Uxbridge. So I’m hoping for “ maybe a winter of greed in both geographicals.I’ll try to roam where the weather suites through this coming season

Things on a grander scale “ certainly grabbing the attention this morning “! Some start point - position block formats- along with now clustering drop line ensembles… Always a good start for cold transfer… we’ll see what the rest of the days suites start drawing up b4 buyin a ticket for the rollercoaster !! Keep watching!. A mix n match of the Canadian/ euro/ American model/ ensembles..

On a basic vanilla slant- this lrfm is worth a view on its update- however as with ANY lrf mod… jigsaw it with an open mind. And my advice would be at sea and head level at this range. Anyway polar forces are not yet absorbing critical top hemisphere forwarding- …. Exiting- or garden path walking again??! We’ll see - the array of probabilities/ non fruitions are what keep the juices going

A good starting point at this stage is/would be… as the models pyramid drop into seasonal deciphering, To take longer range modeling as a mere opening tool “ as per “! And await swirl and update until axis deep -ie, lowering of geomagnetic or influence…. To add the spoon stirring in the mid - upper latitudes of late- Are will be short - mid term wanting of rectification…. Any modeled short range blocking needs taking lightly .

As @northwestsnow alludes- unfortunately the writing was on the wall- LP, after Lp.. hot on each other heels!!! Things firming on the note now !!!

No matter your interpretations - the ec 12z is a nudge concerningly northwards - with a partial drop pivot b4 a wash e- Anglian exit! - now casting from around 2pm tomorrow is the order of the day!! Edit: a tightening of ISO’s as ciaran exits and formats a back sting from the wash into the Home Counties is a distinct possibility… keep watching!!!

The 10m wind ena are of note this morning- even for London going into the shorter term!. Note the stark precipitation spikes also!!! And-the notion of overall temperatures looking to go into the “ Below average “ sync!! Lots to be looking at going forward. But we’ll wait a little longer on both shouts b4 dicecting deeper.. @ 6z gfs

I’m not going to get into run 2 Synoptics just yet .. but it’s vivid in graphic, a notable storm is in- riding, and the euro is on a direct hit for large populated England! .. further we see a classic binocular sync.. so it’s possibly hit- after hit via breeding lp’s making inroad’s- keep watching!!!!

hi- well I come bk in for the autumn/ winter, on the cusp of perhaps some news making weather!. As alluded - we have some critical Atlantic energy’s spawning from the usual US seaboard into the pond, hand in hand on a more or less srting jet scenario. Keeping things short for the here n- now, it’s an obvious evolving point/ points. However as often we see the modeling when running into a nearer time base- up- and downing LPS as output start’s nearer deciphering. And as often we see the biscay boomerang being a plot for modeling in the mid term…. It’s the shorter prognosis “ that obviously “- needs consideration- As there is some real possibilities for some excessive/ Damaging weather in hand … Anyway we do what we do and watch such dramas unfold!!. Good to be bk , And let’s see where we go this season

Certainly. A nego- CET is on the books for July as a whole now....however the AGM is slowly coming into forcing...don't write off August as the monster month......for Heat transfer. Into our latitude..A close eye needed !! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4892725