pandit-scholar

In my opinion the ECM gets better and better if you like cold!!

As most of us know, or should know on here already, that there is about as little chance of the GFS at T384 verifying as there is of having 6ft of snow tomorrow. Thus it is a bit premature to write off things based on a GFS chart in the far reaches of FI!

Since October, the models so far, and this includes the ECM especially, have modelled a significant cold snap or spell at least 3 or 4 times, only to be significantly downgraded!!

The polar vortex looks under pressure on this run of the ECM. Thus a much better run, especially with general mood on here today. Who knows Joe Bastardi prediction of a white Christmas in the UK made on Twitter yesterday may yet come to fruition. Still would be a tall order to get white Christmas but we shall see! Don't write of December just yet!! There's still 25 days of the month to go and the models are probably struggling with what's happening with the synoptics. So expect a lot more chopping and changing in the coming days especially in the longer term!!

We are now coming closer to a crucial period for December, where we could see an Easterly resulting from a Scandinavian high as suggested in the later frames of some models (still a long shot though) or a return to much milder weather! Although much rarer and more difficult to achieve, Scandinavian highs can produce some pretty memorable cold weather. I have posted some charts from 5th to 7th February 1991. Produced some very cold uppers over the South East of England in particular. Don't want to get the coldies hopes up just yet, as this could well be a long shot! But you just can't tell what the weather can do in future!!

It looks like Madden has gone on the attack on Facebook and Twitter against those who dare to criticise his winter forecasts!! He terms them trolls and haters https://m.facebook.com/ExactaWeather?id=275256805855578&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FJh9LppI5hA&_rdr It seems he's launched an attack on the professional meteorology!!!

If we don't criticise and challenge this rubbish, lots of the less informed amongst Joe public outside this forum, especially the elderly and the vulnerable would be unnecessarily scared out of their wits reading this. Lots of people on Facebook share the Express articles on there as they believe them!!

I I thought the Express couldn't get any lower!!! I wonder where Exacta weather gets all this from!! I have been browsing the posts on here everyday, reading up on this coming winter elsewhere and looking at the metociel charts. There is absolutely no evidence that we are going to have the longest winter ever, unless an asteroid come out of the blue and hits earth!!!

The Express are now going for the longest UK winter ever, even longer than the Great Frost of 1683/4!! They are going crazier and crazier everyday!!! http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/444385/Long-range-UK-weather-forecast-warns-snow-storms-and-Arctic-winds-could-last-SIX-months

It's calmed down noticeably in Colchester and is Sunny!! Are we over the worst of it???

Thanks for informing me!!

Can anyone confirm that the centre of the low is due to enter Wales or has done so already!!

Raining heavily where I am, far more than forecast!! Winds beginning to pick up!!

If tomorrow's weather is much less severe than originally forecasted, I wonder if joe public will take the warnings seriously if the deep low modelled on the models for next weekend becomes reality and the UK has a major storm then. That is when problems can emerge!

I agree with on this! Although this maybe a potentially dangerous storm, it is no hurricane Katrina as the odd person seems to think on here.

I think the fax chart will change from day to day!! Now we know how much difficulty the Met Office had in 1987

Well this is the chart I am getting from the above posted link!!

That chart must have changed a few minutes ago as to me it is shows a blowtorch with a huge vortex around Greenland, and upper temperatures of 8 degrees in Southern England.

Fantastic looking chart modelling a white Christmas Day that most would dream of. However, as the sudden disappearance of the deep low on many operational model runs this evening shows, there is more chance of winning the lottery than this chart verifying. Many, me included, still live in hope though!!!

I am quite sure he said likely, but I will review it on the BBC iPlayer tonight. Just looking for any tiny specks of dust for any cold & snow this winter. Just gone from optimistic to more pessimistic the last couple of days, although as of yet it is still very hard to predict!!

I see that John Major was saying on the news it is likely to be a hard winter, a big reason for his call to crack down on energy firms prizes. Like to think he had some inside information being an ex prime minister!!!

True! Despite some getting excited on here about the prospects of a major, possibly historic storm, they should realise the great destruction and loss of life it can cause. The 1703 storm is said to have killed up to 15,000 people in Southern England. Even 1/100 of that number would be a real tragedy if it happened today!!

It's certainly ironic yet again, that as soon th "storm of the century" appears on he front page of The Daily Express the deep low disappears from the GFS operational run!! No doubt it will reappear even deeper on the ECM tonight. That what makes model watching fun!!!

If that deep low appearing on the GFS & ECM verifies, it seems we could have been a bit harsh on that guy on that YouTube video who predicted that category 3 hurricane & the worst storm for 300 yrs would hit the UK at the end of October!! But still plenty of time for a big downgrade!