pandit-scholar

If that low comes off on 28/10 & 29/10 as projected on the ECM the South would get a real bashing!! Thankfully it's still a long way off!!

The GEM is still adamant (and has been for over a week) that a very big storm will hit the British Isles at the end of each run. Still in FI though, and although it has some support from GFS, it has none from the other models, especially the ECM. Still needs watching though, especially if it is still there on this and starts appearing on other models, 5 days nearer the time.

I think Gavin must be keeping his fingers crossed that this guy's prediction of a record heatwave next summer comes off!!

You haven't seen the last few minutes then!! He predicts a record heatwave next summer, the lowest pressure storm ever to hit the UK next summer and Tornadoes!!

I agree!! I think this winter will be very difficult to call especially at this stage.

Enough of Roger J Smith bashing. I am hoping for a cold and snowy winter and I don't agree with his winter forecast. However at the end of the day it doesn't matter what I think, as the weather will do what it wants to do, and thus it's too early to say whether his forecast is right or wrong as winter hasn't started. The best time for critical appraisal of winter forecasts is at the end of winter and not now!

I found this video by chance on YouTube. This appears to be a parody using the famous scene from the movie "Downfall" regarding "fantasy" snow forecasts and the lack of snow. It's quite hilarious. I wonder if some of us snow lovers will feel like that, if there is a lack of snow by the end of winter. I wonder who the hell made it and uploaded on there??

Who was this forecaster who predicted a devestating storm for Northern England and Scotland. A link to his forecast please??

Dea Having a look at what's public on his Facebook profile he appears to be 18 years old and from Bridgend. The posts which are public are entirely about his predicted 'hurricane'. I wonder if he is a member of this forum!???Nice to have some unity now on this thread between the cold and mild winter lover!!

Might interest The Express though!!

Here are Steve's forecast for autum and winter 2013/14: Part one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6HeVAExBLk Part two: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rIUULZ3x8w&feature=player_embedded&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D8rIUULZ3x8w%26feature%3Dplayer_embedded&nomobile=1 Here is his video emphasising the similarities between 1962 and 2013. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cxDHIAr1no Better buy a bunker and stock up on a big supply of salt!!! LOL

If I am allowed to on here, I can post the links to the YouTube videos where he gives those forecasts .

Hi! Don't know where to post this but this, but there is a young guy who has a Facebook page called "Steves Winter forecast". He forecasts a category 3 hurricane over the UK in October and a 6 month severe winter, the worst for 300 years (worse than 1962/1963) until April 2014. He has posted videos on YouTube explaining why! I will leave it up to you as to what you think of that. At first I had a big laugh at what he was forecasting and thought he was putting up for a laugh. However he's been forecasting this hurricane since February. He actually forecasted the weather for August and September quite accurately a month ago. He even forecasted the February winter storms in NE USA two weeks before it happened. However I am still taking it with a pinch of salt!!!

Thanks very much for informing me. I have read Chio's first post, which was very interesting! Will be looking at it closely from the end of this month.

Although I know some things about weather and can read the weather models now, I am still learning! Thus in layman terms what is Lorenzo suggesting for this Autumn and Winter please! Thanks

Thanks! I know it is always difficult to forecast the weather, even a few days ahead, but it is always interesting to know the long range forecasts. I agree, anything can happen between now and winter to turn it to either a very mild or very cold winter (the black swan theory is especially relevant here).

Hi all, Although I know some things about weather and can read the weather models now, I am still learning! Thus in layman terms what is Lorenzo suggesting for this Autumn and Winter please! Thanks

Thank you very much for both of you for giving me links to information for this heatwave. I am extremely grateful!

Although high pressure seems to be rebuilding over the UK (won't go beyond the 05/08)

The GFS chart is currently rolling out at the moment. Looks like the more extreme uppers will be gone as quickly as they came from the UK , most of France and the Low Countries.

Apart from Samuel Pepys diary, does anyone know whether there is any data available for 1666 heatwave please.

I have to agree 2002 was a forgettable year weather wise, especially Christmas which felt unseasonable. 17C where I was on Christmas Eve!!!

As well as having an interest in meteorology, especially extreme weather events, I am also a part time historian, one of my interests being how meterological events helped to change the course of history. One I found most interesting was the battle of Mortimer's Cross in 1461 during the war of Roses fought between Lancastrian army, led by Owen Tudor and his son Jasper Tudor, and the Yorkist army led by Edward, Earl of March. A few months before the battle, the main Yorkist army was annihilated by the Lancastrian army, led by Margaret of Anjou (wife of Henry VI) with Edward's father, Richard, Duke of York, and his brother, the Earl of Rutland were brutally executed in the aftermath of the battle. The Yorkist cause seemed loss. The 18 year old Edward, in a daring, and possibly, suicidal attempt, decided to block the Welsh Lancastrians, which heavily outnumbered his army, from joining up with Margaret of Anjou in her march towards London at Mortimer's Cross. What supposed to have happened next was remarkable. Just before the battle a "parhelion" or "sun dog", a rare meterological phenomenon, which gave the illusion of 3 suns in the sky appeared over Edward and his army's head. This caused great fear, but Edward persuaded his army that this showed that god favoured the 3 remaining sons of York (him and his brothers George and Richard). Morale collapsed at the sight of the "3 suns", and many of them fled the battle in fear, as obviously they felt they did not want to defy "god's word". Edward won a resounding victory and marched to London, and reached it before Margaret of Anjou did, and was declared as King Edward IV by the Londoners. A few months later, in April 1461, he secured his place of the throne by destroying the Lancastrian army at Townton, in the largest battle on English soil in history, a victory also arguably partly assisted by the weather. Further details of the parhelion/sun dog at Mortimer's cross can be read on the following link: http://www.decodedscience.com/the-mortimers-cross-parhelion-how-a-meteorological-phenomenon-changed-english-history/3437

Despite the medium and long range models previously showing a break down to wet and cooler weather, the main models have consistently shown this not to be absolutely the case with another possible heat reload nearer the time!

The sun is unusually quite at the moment. May have an effect but the research on this is still at the early stages!