[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

looks to me like a similar evolution to the GEM long term on the UKMO

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

ok we have a cold ramper on board tonight . stick to the synoptics , showing 3 models all downgraded medium term with a similar thread= its a worry.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

this is indeed a worrying trend , stronger ejection from the eastern sea board on all runs tonight in the middle term.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

the gfs is bi- polar tonight , still has no handle on the synoptic changes . bin it !

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

better heights cutting in around the back , hopefully this low is cut off soon

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

better amplification already on this run with regards heights around Greenland here hoping .

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Could that cause a Thames streamer?

they form in moderate to strong winds with a normally -5/6 850 temp for snow along a convergence line , The fax above shows a frontal system in slack air .

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

ecm does good for ireland . the north and east especially undercutting low . GFS is not quite there yet .

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

ens look mixed on the 18z . but some crackers, perturbation 6 is an ice age lol

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Grrr typical lil ole Ireland not invited to the snowfest yet again :-( Models starting to show some (relatively) decent consistancy, so looking like you Brits will be in for a winner if the models verfiy and I'll be delighted for you all if it does! Us Poor Irish who missed out last Feb, may have to hope for a later shot at a deeper cold period towards the end of the month!

dont worry about Ireland yet . get a pattern change like this in and im sure we will get hit .

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

great ecm tonight , but its a very knife edge undercut , any amplification in the trough early on and it may not dig as deep . caution needed

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

yep pages, have gone through most of them now and strongly backing zonal even the colder members are struggling on this run. dont even look at perturbance 8 . lol

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Perturbance 2 on the gfs ens is amazing for coldies . control and mean not doing so well though ..

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Agree totally uncle barty , the gfs has been so bullish in its last 4/5 runs ,That its hard to look past what appears to be a fast break down.long term zonal if SST is to be accounted for is unlightly though and typical of low res F.I

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

The ens are still far to spread on the gfs to give up hope of a descent cold spell . The 06z op has backtracked slightly in the medium term and is close to a warm outliner. seems to be a major uncertainty beyond the 16 th in all models this morning. an upgrade for me personally.

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

still a few descent members showing on a well spread gfs ens.

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

poor control and mean on the gfs ens . worrying

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

sorry guys but im going with the gfs , just a gut feeling, have seen this all too many times before. hope im wrong though !

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

The UKMO and ECM have been just as consistent, they've been going for cold for days now.

no the ecm only flipped yesterday and the ukmo not long before

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

yes i do think the ecm will follow along the same lines probably not as aggressive in toppling but getting there ....

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

shortwave again is going to topple it . damn

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

weathermaster the NAM is highly reliable on MCS events in the usa. normally surpassing the gfs quite well . hopefully promising news

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

yes the nam is run at a higher resolution then the gfs . for storm chasers in the US , it normally GFS first , then NAM and finally the RAP

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

And this does?

Sadly, I have a thorn in my side this evening. The bullish nature of GFS is a tad scary, and all at a small time frame. The nature of the depressions around greenland's tip is the tipping point. Everything after that is pure speculation.

Finger's crossed this goes with the euro and UK models.

no it does not and is hopefully deleted. The bullish nature of the gfs has, and will again come to fruition ,will it be this time? if i was a betting man i would say yes . The 18z has again flattened the pattern with ejecting shortwaves and this time has more ens support .

Nothing is set in stone as of yet though but i am truly worried. The solid ecmwf ens do present a glimmer of hope for coldies though. something is going to give soon that is far sure.

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

people dismissing the gfs because it doesnt feed into their ideas?

ok it might be out on its own right now , but in my experience it does very well with energy coming off the northeastern seaboard. waiting for the the ens to get properly worried but it must be on to something either way , one model is going to get large praise at the end of this .