rory o gorman
-
Posts
215 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by rory o gorman
-
-
-
heros has fallen , rip team twistex
-
Given the heights and overall thickness i think 14c is severely low-balled for Wednesday a common problem with the gfs. Was forecast for 14c here today with 0.2mm of rain by said GFS, currently mostly sunny with 16.7c at 5 pm and zero rain.
-
even today here given the colder 850s uppers , its still a pleasant 17c and sunny .Goes to show people that 500 mb heights are more important at this time of the year given the strong sun.
-
Dont really understand this post , both charts show heights stronger then today and in southern ireland today's weather zero octaves of cloud and 19.6c hardly unsettled. perhaps you could explain the source of wet weather in said charts given both have stronger heights than Greece...The first week of June is looking cloudy, wet and unsettled, particularly in southern UK.
-
pub run no wobbles so far , looking more and more likely of a warm up at last!
-
ECM is a big improvement for my location here in southern Ireland , ridged from Monday on ,until F.I with descent uppers and offshore winds , today's 10c would become 16-18c quite easily .
-
GFS has poor verification stats compared to ECM.
GFS has no support from UKMO or the ECM.
not very poor in the sub 100 hours timeframe, it's been bullish in its ens for the last 3 days on a strong pressure rise.
-
12z is a winner in the medium term 18-21 C by Tuesday
beats the wintry 9 currently here... -
Looks like a pretty wet GFS 12 z overall albeit with some drier interludes but certainly no long warm dry spell right through to FI.
I suspected there could be a potential deluge over the east / SE at the end of the week.
The mid Atlantic / Azores High seems to want to pull back west on the ECM 12z at 216h after teasing at 196h
Cool and showery then with a very wet potential this week a la ECM as well
Not forgetting UKMO of course!
The gfs 12z has my location at plus 564- geo heights for 80% of the run past friday , and the ECM has a warm stable NE flow that would push 20c plus here in southern Ireland going out to the final frame of the ECM to signal disaster well.. , I love both unsettled convective spells as well as settled.
-
Very nice 12z gfs , spits a strong ridge over us in Ireland by Saturday and continues mostly ridged into deep F.I with the jet well to the north and lower heights over Greenland is the 6 year curse over
-
The potent trough over southern Ireland on Wednesday is looking increasingly good for a first proper chase this season. ECM showing signs of the western ridge having more of an influence out into F.I so not to displeased with latest outcome personally.
-
I think we cant write off the next week after tomorrow for warmth , but F.I plus ens are still hinting at a solid warm up
-
Note the ejection of the shortwave in the northeast of the usa on this run and not the last . There is some very active weather developing in the U.S next week with a strong negative trough off the rockies on monday/tueday therefor is causing problems with consistency downstream.
-
will be nice too get the moisture back and watch the LCLs drop down , sunshine and convection looking like the theme on the gfs tonight with a ,strong advection of warmth in F.I
-
Yes we are set to head into phase 4 which is a wet westerly pattern. What it doesn't show is whether we are on the warm or cold side of the jet. UKMO in the blue corner, GFS in the red corner. I have stated this a lot that I feel heights are being removed too quickly by all models which has already extended this cold period by a couple of days. I also feel that the jet will be modelled further south with time, this shown by ECM and UKMO which have corrected the low southwards over the past 24/36 hours.
Damn I've wasted my evil cold squirrel/borat impersonator frozen nuts related joke ramp post.
I see your point totally , just from what i see involving the fast ejecting trough across the plains next week with strong amplification towards the eastern sea board i see a pretty fast break down of heights but the scatter on ens does show other options indeed.
-
Sorry, might stop what exactly?
your undercutting low , which goes against all teleconections indicated by NOAA as regards trough amplification and longwave pattern ,MJO is set to change phase also . dont see it happening
-
Big difference between UKMO and GFS at t96.
UKMO has almost got an undercut, I think the GFS has over deepened the low again with a 15mb difference between them
GFS:
UKMO:
Icelandic wedge sending it south
perhaps the large bock of heights to the south knows as the AZ high might stop that , like it does 99% of the time ?
-
If you're pulling up random charts just to highlight a specific weather type based purely on a preference for that weather type and nothing else (like some sort of reasoning why those charts are relevant aside from a preference), then please post into the banter/ramping thread as it's really not model discussion. We've moved several posts of a similar type in there already today.
hear hear,
its rather annoying when people pull hail mary , ens members or random unsupported F.I changes and do full posts on them just to highlight their preference. Anyway good too see the 06z ensembles returning to near temps from Saturday ,some descent WAA shots and post shortwave instability with a chance of perhaps some descent convection given the step laspes. I will take it over this mundane pattern currently
-
yep you got it purga snow is for sure coming .... and in real life good convection setups on the gfs today , surface heating creating some good laspes may be in our future
-
What does that mean!!
means the pattern in the whole northern hemisphere is about to change. MJO changing phase
-
Good news from the the U.S with the spc backing a strong change in the longwave pattern early next week with ridging on the eastern seaboard, and yes severe weather on the plains
-
well im looking for convection now , so the ecm pattern is fine for me, plenty of WAA on the gfs also .
-
1
-
-
The cold blast deep in F.I is a deep outliner, a bit of straw clutching going on tonight it seems .
beats the wintry 9 currently here... 
its rather annoying when people pull hail mary , ens members or random unsupported F.I changes and do full posts on them just to highlight their preference. 
Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Its a cracker for me here in southern ireland