[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

i think a foot will fall .CWT2012 for chief in the met office !

[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

its raining in uckfield now i think

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.]

Cold enough for snow from direct westerlies in Ireland

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1202.png

The world has gone mad!

Cold enough for snow from direct westerlies in Ireland

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1202.png

The world has gone mad!

and we will take it . -6 upper strong westerlies good chance of thundersnow i would expect in western Ireland

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

I know it's in FI but 120 to 144 the low stalls to the east of Ireland and hardly moves, can anybody give me an insight as to the reason? Is it the higher pressure sitting in the heart of Europe? Thanks, Carl.

http://www.meteociel...=120&carte=1021

It is due to the cold pool of air to the East which is very dense its hard for the Atlantic to push through it hence it stalls . hope that helps

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

i agree i think there is a overpowering of the atlantic by most of the models . The chances of an undercut are growing IMO.

[London & South East Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>]

Feels strange reading this thread from my home in Melbourne wearing shorts with the sun blazing outside. remember many a snow watch on net weather when i lived in South London. kind of miss it.. hope you all get loads of snow and streamers etc!

lol just saw this , it is very strange indeed reading in the heat . im in perth 35 C 60% R>H currently .

[Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond]

The western polar vortex drops in the Atlantic albeit a modified flow i will take squally sleet increasing snow (-6 upper\ good WBFL) showers after 3 months in this oven western Australia.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Preturbation 1 would do very nicely indeed

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

bring on that cold zonal flow > will do much better for western ireland , thunder snow possible with some F.I charts on 18z

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

A lot of weight being given to the latest NAE output, but something doesn't seem quite right about it:

the irish sea is on the backside, the land in question is it the warm sector.

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

messy messy gfs , but the main thing here is it reluctance to bring in the Atlantic. heights also remain stronger to the north. for sure a long term upgrade .

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

would have to agree with ians comments the front is far weaker and has embedded warm pools . disappointing

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

i think the the GFS are over cooking the amplification of the low in F.I . the heights are amazing to the north this a huge upgrade.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

if this thing undercuts will lock in a 47 style pattern crazy

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

Couldn't resist!

HAHA that the SACRA club right logo right there .

great heights building around iceland possible greeny high .at 141 now

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

OH i like this http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130112/00/114/h850t850eu.png my facebook page will go nuts

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

undercut alert ! finally maybe ireland can get in on this

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

not looking good for Ireland and the S.W thus far . gfs ens scatter is promising though .

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

sorry again guys im irish was watching this a bit differently lol . there is great snow synoptics short term in the uk for sure .

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

yes indeed great plume, its a common thread post 160 hrs but the way the models are preforming i have no major trust in it verifying,

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

toppled.. there is just to much energy coming off the eastern sea board right now on all the runs .

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

192 hrs looking poised to topple IMO

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

great start to the ecm. shortwave drops fast with a good easterly. heights beginning to sink though at 168 hrs

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false NAM 84 hour ejecting harder then before

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

I will ignore the snipes being made yet . ICETAB that is one evolution indeed , my issue is with the ejecting shortwave from the usa. This is the first time ive seen a' ski jump' style trough in the medium term in 2 days . Again it may be typical U.S models with over amplification but its a worry.