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rory o gorman

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Posts posted by rory o gorman

    Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All the cold air is heading down into central/eastern Europe. Looking at the evolution up to T240 the liklihood is that the little ridge of HP would stay to the south of the UK for a couple of days before being squeezed out by low pressure encroaching from the north west. Cold air is there but its being pushed away from the UK.

    agreed the energy at 240 hrs is going north the blocking is toppled , hopefully we can see a ridging setup before the summer.

    Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Overall the ECM is very cold for the time of year and little snow beyond 48 hrs yes -6/8 upper can fall as snow this time of the year but day time radiant heating will cause melting and increasingly sleet with less dept overall . Plus heights build well on the run and smells of an inversion at 850 mb from 72 hrs plus and with a slack flow all i see is boring cloudy cold with 3/4c maxes for most of the run. where anyone see excitement in this is beyond me...

    Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rory o gorman

    Not at all!

    I just like cold wintry weather and primarily snow (which btw is rather difficult to get without it being cold) if you read my posts. Proper snow is so rare in the UK, with mostly non-descript and mild conditions predominating. Also I live in the south (Sussex coast) which is one of the least likely places for snow one could choose - LOL. Down here northerlies rarely deliver anything except cool sunny conditions if you're lucky. What can deliver, as has happened a couple of times this winter / spring, is a decent cold easterly undercut with a stalling front / channel low as ideal and sometimes convective showers getting through on a NEly. That is why I am excited by the current easterly type synoptic regime as it at least offers the opportunities for some snowy fun down here. Since it can be mild pretty much throughout most winters i am grateful for any chance of snow at any time of the year quite frankly.. Perhaps my taste is 'strange' but each to their own, I don't criticize mildies personally and accuse them of being 'trolls' just because I don't share their taste in weather type.

    I've lived in a pretty extreme continental climate before (Saskatechewan Canada) where believe me it really does get cold for weeks / months on end and even I would crave some warmth, trouble was the breakup was always a messy muddy affair but summer when it came would be spectacular.

    Apologies to mods et al, just felt the accusation needed commenting on.

    smile.png

    Ok but to you expect uppers to be sub -12 with sub 528 dam to arrive from an easterly in april honestly? I like cold and snow in WINTER when weaker sun and less surface heating and deeper cold pools allow for the chance of deep cold coming from the east and therefor convective snow .

    Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Purga- is either a troll or a strange taste in weather.

    Firstly the gfs 06z is no good for snow most of the run is cloudy cold/cool with a rather strong biting east wind. If your excited by that then ok...sorry.gif but i don't know many that would , especially severe weather junkies and more so farmers, who would be very far behind in the growing season and costing them in feed for cattle ect that would normally be outdoors. As for proper snow in april a direct arctic flow with much colder air at 500 mb is needed, not a slight modified pool of eastern cold.How anyone can like this run is beyond me ...

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