Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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The trend hasn’t continued on the 18z which is good news for those wanting severe cold.
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Just now, Paul said:
Thanks Paul.
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Interesting to find out what MOGREPS is showing? Apologies if it's been posted, but it's hard to keep up with the volume of posts!
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If the GFS is right (it's a MASSIVE if), then it'll be a huge dent in the confidence of long range models, teleconnections and global drivers. It would, for me, be the final time that I ever trust them.
If the GFS in wrong (far more likely), it just reinforces the fact that it's a hopeless model.
ECM 12z will be a key run. I'd like to see the GFS also backtrack.
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Very tiresome to see the same old names crawling out of the woodwork with the "I told you so" posts. It's so misleading for people who are newer to model watching, as some of what they post is frankly plain wrong.
Very little seems to have changed this morning. We can't keep on having upgrades as some of the modelling yesterday was pretty much at the extreme end of what is possible to achieve.
The 00z suite do tend to be the most progressive runs of the day (not always). Let's see what the rest of the day brings.
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4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:Bitter by Friday! Erm...
Would be bitter at the surface.
Uppers have been modelled to rise at the end of next week for a while now before plunging afterwards.
Your one chart doesn’t tell the story.
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Even at T48 snow can be hard to forecast. No point micro-analysing charts that are 10 days away.
The general direction of travel still looks like a solid route to cold / very cold.
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Just now, Ramp said:
The charts are lovely but keep calm people there’s water left to go under the bridge.
Or ice?
I’ve been quite cautious, but it’s hard not to get excited by the current output.
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4 minutes ago, chris78 said:
I'm no expert on the charts, but I have been coming here for around 15 years. In that time there have been 2 what you might call historic cold spells, 2010 2018. There has been maybe 10 times the models have suggested similar spells only for them not to happen. During the build up to those non events, anyone who is cautious gets criticised.
I have no issue with caution, and this post isn't directed at you. What can be annoying is people who deny something is going to happen based on no model-based evidence. The signs are very good going forward, but we have seen cold spells vanish at T72. What gives me more optimism this time is the sheer amount of support for something significant. As ever, we shall see.
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Great runs. Hopefully the 00z runs won’t be too bad, although they are usually the worst of the day. No idea why, but it happens too often to be a coincidence!
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I’m sure 1947 and December 1962 had UK highs which then retrogressed.
Some people are too impatient and obsessed with micro-scale changes from op run to op run.
Yes, this could all go wrong, but signs are good.
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28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Awful Ecm hopefully it's wrong again.miles away from what it was showing 48 hours ago Not much cold around then looking like a topper at the end Uselesd
It’s not awful. Absolutely nothing to suggest a toppler. Ties in well with teleconnections and other global drivers.
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Always so much talk about one model jumping to the other,
What invariably happens is that the models converge on a solution. The GFS has moved towards this morning’s UKMO output, but the UKMO has moved the other way.
As I have said before, severe cold has always been the outside bet. I just don’t see enough evidence (yet) of enough blocking to our north.
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Why are people so disappointed- there was never anything significant going going for a deep freeze.
A UK high isn’t a bad starting point. Let’s see where the models suggest we may go next.
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Too much model disagreement to be confident about a cold spell. I’m still at my 10% likelihood threshold.
Very likely to get colder now. But severe cold still tut outside bet.-
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4 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
Reasons for optimism justified by current output. Liking Mets outlook as well. Could do with BBC lowering it's forecast temps a bit though!
BBC are always last to catch on as they only use raw model data.
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28 minutes ago, warrenb said:
I see the reliable as up to 192
T192 is well into FI regardless of how you want to see it.
The shift to cold is meant to start around day 9.
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The GEM has gone from zero to hero in 12 hours. Exactly why I pay little attention to it.
Overall the 12z output so far has increased my confidence in the weather turning colder.
Over to ECM . . .
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8 minutes ago, DCee said:
The HP might feel cool to begin with but will fill to warm to nearly double digits over the course of its stay as you'd expect.
Looking forward to the sunshine!
Not in January it won’t. There is a net solar loss each day, so it will get colder each day. The sun is far too weak at this time of year.
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1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:
The stratospheric warming is 85% certain to happen and 60% of these produce wintry spells of significance so that 10% figure is a wild assumption backed by no discernible evidence
60% may produce wintry spells but there’s no guarantee that we will be in the right place to benefit.
I’m just trying to ground people’s expectations. And we also know that the vast majority of modelled cold spells go wrong.
So my 10% is based on many years of model watching experience.
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4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Correct. Although this is the overwhelming outside chance with what’s about to go off in the atmosphere this next 2 weeks!
We’ve had that before - and still ended up with nothing.
I wouldn’t go any further than a 10% chance of a significant cold spell. We need a lot more runs yet.
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13 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:
It's the models trying to get to grip with the big pattern change about to happen, happens all the time!
Cold, blocked and real prospect for snow as we head through January!
I've been saying this for days as have a fair few other experienced members on here, you would have to be blind not to see this.
People beating on the 'won't happen' or 'mild' drum simply because one of the key 3 models output is poor say the 00z ECM earlier, whilst the other 2 are good... Your are unlikely to get all free (GFS, ECM, UKMO) singing off the same hym sheet until around 144h even then can be too far out.
Can deny it all you like but the cold is coming mark my words
It’s bitter experience that makes people bang upon the drum.
So many times in the past have cold spells failed to happen because one of the big three shows a milder outcome.
I’m not saying it’ll happen this time - but I wouldn’t be surprised either.
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Not buying any of this cold outlook yet. Good to see cold potential in the output rather than mild dross, but way too early to get excited.
A couple of weeks ago, the models were showing a cold Christmas, which rapidly disappeared as the time approached.
That Azores HP either needs to dissolve or get sucked north to increase my optimism.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A mean at 15 days range is useless.