Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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Excellent ECM. Heat gets blown away well into FI, but I'm sure that's being way too progressive.
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I think that our settled spell has broken down at the precise time that the Atlantic has woken up. Typical UK luck that.
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6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
I'm not fussed as it's all in FI anyway. As long as all models show the pressure build starting next week (which they do), that's good enough for me.
18 minutes ago, AnnyPl said:I wouldn't say that GFS is usually as accurate as ECM though. Even ECM has its poor moments.
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What is becoming noticeable in recent summers is that there is so much heat to tap into to the south of us. We don't always tap into it, but it's there. Same for this summer - lots of plume potential and I feel that it's only a matter of time before we get a hit. The models keep hinting at this into FI.
It feels like 35C is becoming a similar probability to what 32C was a few decades ago.
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7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Only ten days away....!
Thee plume type setups keep popping up though. Of course 10 day charts rarely verify, but there are a lot of indications that something very hot is more than possible.
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1 minute ago, AWD said:
The UKV was appalling over the weekend gone, which forecast no rainfall for me Saturday yet I received a good few hours of moderate rain and forecast little in the way of storm activity yet as we know, a large amount of storms swept across many parts of central England on Sunday!
Not a model I personally have much trust in currently.
It was pretty much spot on with temperatures though. Most other models were too low.
I think that some are expecting a deluge next week. I'm sure that some locations will cop it, but it'll be very hit and miss. If places can avoid the showers, I think that 30C is easily possible.
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26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
4 consecutive days of 30c+ before mid June
3 daily temperature records broken...
Those stats have already surpassed 2022 summer... lol.. ok they did get the hottest day homour though.
It is one of the best ever starts to Summer... even more strange after a Spring with no anomalous warmth.June wasn't an amazing month last year, but July and August certainly were up there (both 18+ on the CET series). Would be remarkable if that happened again this year.
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Make most of watever rain we get sunday/monday cos dry weather and high pressure builds in strongly according to the ecm mean!!temps very warm/humid throughout the op run aswell!!
Not even sure there will be much rain towards the east.
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4 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:Yes I agree, the obsession with plumes and record breaking temperatures is weird. Give me a good old UK High that hangs around for a week or two with temperatures in mid high twenties. What’s not too like?
Plumes are like gambling away what you can’t afford. You may get get a bit lucky but then the whole thing falls to pieces.Don't think it's any different to those in winter who crave -15 uppers and snow!
A lot of enthusiasts love weather records and exceptional events. Although I wouldn't want 35C+ every day.
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1 minute ago, Jake March-Jones said:
Fingers crossed the 18z is decent... Any hints yet?
A bit soon - still in its early stages of rolling out.
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
I am afraid i think we'll be waiting a while yet for an SSW if we do get one unfortunately.
And it doesn’t even guarantee us cold weather if we do get one.
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7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
Really feels like this is slipping away now, Northern areas may see a little snow but nothing is going to last as there's just no longevity. Everything needs to correct south and quickly over the next few runs if we're going to pull this back.
Slipping away? It was never here! All in FI, and folks think it’s going to actually happen. Get it to T72 and then I’m interested.
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Maybe Brogdale has stolen it?
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Are they saying that all of the stations that reported over 40 being discounted?
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Just now, Nick L said:
Not sure where people are getting 40C at Coningsby from. Latest ob at 2pm there was 39.1C.
Live Weather Top Twenty - Highs and Lows - Netweather.tv
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV -
Assuming that the Coningsby figure is a rounded 40.
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Heathrow 40.2C . . .
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What's quite amazing (scary in fact) is that lots of stations are already recording over 100F, which for so long was a "holy grail" temperature in the UK.
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Just now, Nick L said:
39.7C at Heathrow.
So close Nick, so close!
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Waiting for the first official 40C . . .
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40C is inevitable now.
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Some models have the hot uppers holding on until later, so I would say that London may peak a bit later than 1pm.
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7 minutes ago, pages said:
Safe to say 40 degrees not going to be breached today, not sure 100% sure record is going to go either.
Everyone on here seems to think it's a done deal but look back over last couple of pages the rate of increase is slowing considerably.
Massive increase this morning but now nowhere has raised more than 0.8 degrees In last hour
we only got another 4 hours of rises. So only another 3 degrees max on top of what they are now, so going to be close.
Doesn't make sense - the upper air temps are increasing.
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6 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Bloody hell. The record is toast.
And the uppers are still increasing!
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Djdazzle
I suppose the current output is odd as it goes against what many of the other signals and anomalies have suggested would be the.case.