[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

I always expect August to be poor as  the whole dynamic of the month seems to have changed in the last two decades.

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

I think cloud predictions are almost as poor as the precipitation predictions!

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Ir will likely be GFS being correct as the model showing the worst outcome is usually correct. That’s the way it seems to go more often than not in the UK!

Let’s see what ECM says later.

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mid July, mid summer! High pressure overhead, widespread mid to high 20s, sunshine and dry weather. If you were to ask me for ideal synoptics this point in the summer it would be what is on offer.. now entering 'high summer'..

I suppose in high summer, a lot of us are looking for the maximum impact in terms of high temperatures. It's quite unbelievable that we haven't reached 30C by this point - that is a real shock.

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

The prize money should go to GFS. Its been very spot on with everything ending early. 

Hasn't happened yet!

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

7 minutes ago, eastangliawx said:

Damn people really complaining about a high pressure dominated pattern that looks to last to the end of next week with, relatively clear skies for most, dry and temps in mid-twenties. 

If that were true, I'd agree with you.

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

So another shot at a good few days of hot weather is taken away. We just don't seem to be able to get a decent break this summer.

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

7 minutes ago, slater said:

What long settled spell…??, 

What ate you basing that on?

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

People were looking well beyond 144 hrs for this upcoming spell?

If it's there in the modelling it's there to be discussed.

I agree with that - we all look beyond 144, but usually just for fun!

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

3 minutes ago, stodge said:

Well, yes, if you consider FI to be T+144, that's valid.

I've gone out to T+240 and I'm discussing that output which to me doesn't suggest a prolonged dry and settled spell.

I did also say there was a lot to be resolved.

Well FI is 144 in most people’s definition. And even 144 is pushing it sometimes!

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Probably a hot outlier though.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

But the background signals have never looked strongly in favour of a blazing summer...so I'm not quite sure what these background signals are that some are supposedly seeing?

Nothing has been suggestive of anything other than a mixed summer. That's exactly what we're seeing. 

True - but little different to the last two summers. At least they produced some hot spells, and I’m hoping this one does the same (although I’m sure you won’t! )

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m still confident that July will be hot in the latter half, the background signals seem to push for that, although in the short term, I admit that is happening slower than I would like.  Then you have to factor in the MO CP forecasts which are bullish for a hot and dry rest of summer, difficult to fathom from the current outputs but it does just rest on that shift from the Azores through to Scandi, still think around 15th July.  

Don’t take this as a dig because it certainly isn’t! You were fairly confident that the first part of July would be fine a couple of weeks ago. I hope you’re right this time mate!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It looks nice - but it’s stuck at day 10 again and hasn’t got any closer the last couple of days. Now looking pretty mixed to unsettled out until Wednesday, before Thursday and Friday turn drier.

Temperatures fairly uninspiring for what is now the peak of summer, high teens scraping low 20s at times. We need to squeeze something decent here as august is starting to look decidedly dodgy. Nina setting back in and a massive standing wave possibly setting up and not moving all month, which usually means crappy weather for the UK.

August will be a hot month then - I'm starting to doubt the validity of any long term signals this summer.

We keep getting dangled with promising anomaly charts in the 10-14 day range, but that's where they have stayed for the past three weeks.

As long as one of the big three shows unsettled, that is what it will be it seems.

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

UKMO looks good going forward.

GFS 12z is so different to the 6z, I'm not convinced!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

20 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM really delivers a really poor weekend again, I was hoping the low would at least hold off for Saturday but it just surges eastwards through Friday night. Showers and plenty of cloud both Saturday and Sunday temps clearly going to struggle mid to high teens at best I would have thought. Monday looks a howler. Then showers and cool, breezy conditions through the week. While pressure rises unfortunately even by day ten on the ECM we are still stuck under an upper trough so mild and showery. Could be some really poor sunshine totals in places. 

Not supported by the anomalies though.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Well at least it can’t get worse than this. The 12z will be better, only for that reason.

These charts make 2007 look pleasant.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Just catching up. I saw Tamara’s post earlier - is the gist of it that we should pretty much ignore the operationals?

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Finally, after days of dross, the ECM provides some promise!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hardly the complete opposite. This the anomaly 6-11 24 hours ago. This morning the ecm det run has merely adjusted the Atlantic trough further east.

Some adjustment!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Again - the complete opposite of the anomalies.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Such is  life for a UK weather enthusiast !

If it were Winter I'd be looking on in envy at potentially inches of snow in the South while frantically curtain twitching to find a mere  flurry !

If it was winter, you just know that the uppers would be rubbish and it would still be rain.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

49 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

The ECM is determined to target us with those lows. Frustrating as most other parts of Europe are under the 10 degrees isotherm or above.Its still singing from it's own hymn sheet but the GFS may also come to the same conclusion over the coming days if today's trends are anything to go off.

Totally not supported by the anomalies though. They are strongly indicating high pressure in the medium term.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Just now, mb018538 said:

ECM is very poor for the south. Trough gets stuck and inches of rain. Scotland and Ireland looks best here!

I’m fast getting to the point where I’m not even looking at ECM.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’ve lost complete faith with ECM it is having a diabolical year, yesterday it was showing a fabulous summer pattern with intense ridging now we can’t shake off a low to south, and when it does go, along comes westerlies..

The UKMO has been little better. Atrocious consistency!