Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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4 minutes ago, Howie said:
Looks like next weekend could be quite wet
Based on?
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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Day 6 ukmo 850s. Up to 10c in the south, so 25c+ would be on the cards in this setup.
A lovely chart for the first day of summer.
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1 minute ago, Don said:
They've become fairly common since 2015!
True. I think one of them, at some point, will be a less transient affair, which is when we will challenge 40C.
Hoping that this afternoon’s runs will continue with the general improvements.
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23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Am I seeing (or imagining) 30C T850s down over North Africa? If it really is that hot, down there, a couple of plumes might see us record 100F, for the third year in succession!
Be that as it may, we do seem to have reached a tipping-point regarding summer maxes?
I read somewhere (maybe on here) that transient, very hot plumes could become more common in the years ahead.
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27 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
We've seen it in previous summers? It might not come off, but why are you so convinced it can't?
It's entirely feasible and any dismissal of that fact is just hopecasting.
Feasible- yes.
Likely - no.
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
Doesnt look like the beloved NOAA anomalies to me!
What a rancid day 10 chart. See what those ensembles say, I reckon this off the scale bad.
That chart is so bad - the ECM has somehow contrived to produce the worst possible outcome. It’s like flipping a tail 6 times in a row; hence, highly unlikely to come true.
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
Couldn’t really make it up...a month to shake this trough away, we get high pressure for a few days and then we’re back stuck with a trough over us and high pressure either side. Weather gods laughing at us again!
It doesn’t seem plausible. So many signals hinting at a pattern change and I think the odds of us being in the same situation are slim.
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The GEM flip-flops so much - I pretty much gave up on it a while back.
Hopefully ECM will be a good one later.
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ECM only dips into FI. Looks ok up to 144, which is pretty much the far reaches of what’s reliable.
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Looks like we are going to have two huge outliers (GFS and ECM) but at opposite ends.
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3 minutes ago, Alderc said:
GFS says ‘want your first 25c of the year, oh and by the way what about a run at 30c while we’re here?’
Would be typical of our climate, dreadful for weeks and weeks to flip from basically an extended winter straight into summer full blast.
Would also be mildly amusing to break 30c a few days into summer with lots of people suggesting it wouldn’t happen all summer.
Still I’m sure the 12z run will be a massive outlier....
It’s amusing eh! Although only a fool would bet against 30C not being achieved all summer! In fact, you’d be shocked if 90F wasn’t reached these days.
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Models seem determined to scupper any chances to escape this dire pattern we are in.
This is by far the worst May that I can remember. In fact, I don’t recall one being even half as bad as this.But still confident of a major pattern change in early June.
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18 minutes ago, B87 said:
Have models not consistently shown a return to normal conditions at about day 10, only to backtrack as we get nearer the time?
In a word, no. There has been very little in the ten day range to be positive about.
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28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Iffy 12z runs so far. GEM has gone from lovely on the 00z to godawful on the 12z. Let’s see what the ecm says in relation to its decent 00z run.
Often see this when a possible change is afoot: model sniffs it out, drops it then brings it back. Here’s hoping anyway!
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44 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
I’ll be shocked if we see HP to our E for any significant amount of time this summer. Pretty much every long range model places a mean HP anomaly just to our west.
Also important to remember that any rising AAM signature is no guarantee of HP settling over or to the E of the UK (which is where heat lovers would want it).
Remember, 2007 was a highly amplified/buckled jet pattern...it didn’t improve until the jet flattened later in summer (towards August)...when AAM went negative?
We’re best off waiting to see where we are come early June. If we’ve settled down then early summer could be useable and decent. If things are still unsettled then I think we could be looking at a cool, wettish summer overall.
I’d be more shocked If the LRF’a are actually correct! They may be correct, but an average to warm summer is just as likely as a cool unsettled one.
And even if we do end up with that, you wouldn’t bet against a few hot / very hot spells.
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27 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
I think a break is coming for me from model watching now- I don't think I've felt more deflated when checking the models in a morning than I did a few minutes ago.
We've been through some miserable periods in the last 15 years but it's tough to top this.
I fail to see what interest the ECM or GFS would offer anyone this morning. It's like groundhog day with yet more relentlessly cool, boring weather.
See you all in a week or so when hopefully things will have flipped.
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It can’t and won’t go on forever. I have a feeling that it will be a mirror image of last year with a flip at the start of June.
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35 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
Just can’t see an improvement happening in the longer term. Think it will be a stop start type of summer. Some hot weather, for maybe a week or ten days, with longer spells of cloudy days and average temps.
Truth is that nobody has a clue about summer! I don’t see any reason to say this summer won’t be a good one.
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11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
Weve just had a change, from cold and dry to average and wet.
Hopefully this will be a stepping stone in the right direction.
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7 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Well as the GFS mean gets dragged ever so slightly lower as the 12z Ops run goes on it merry way towards to the end with high pressure building in . A complete outlier again but two runs on the trot, maybe just maybe gfs is sniffing out something more positive, hopefully it’ll be an emerging trend, if it is I may stop moaning
Wouldn’t be the same if you stopped moaning!
Hopefully, tentative signs that a summer-type pattern may establish later this month.
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Even though the outlook is mixed, I’m not remotely worried about summer. At least going forward we are losing that horrid cold airmass that stuck around for weeks.
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1 minute ago, Don said:
2013 springs to mind there. Following six below average months on the trot, July 2013 marked a return to a prolonged warmer phase again.
It felt like July 13 ended the run of quite poor summer months, stretching all the way back to August 2006. Since July 13, we’ve seen a plethora of average to warm summer months.
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10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
We said this about April. Our weather isn't mobile anymore, patterns get stuck for months at a time. If even half of what FI is suggesting actually happens then I worry for June and July too.
On the other hand, patterns can flip at quite short notice. We have no clue about summer, apart from the fact that we are highly likely to get a couple of very hot spells, even if it’s generally unsettled.
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Thought I’d pop in looking for some warmth! At least those vile cold charts are in deep FI.
I’d rather get the iffy synoptics out of the way in May rather than having them in summer.
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A desperately poor forecast for today when compared to the reality.
Can’t get it right 12 hours out - and to think there are those who believe in long range forecasts!
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Model output discussion 9th April onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It’s a very positive pattern in terms of getting summer off to a good start.