[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That high pressure slips a little east and the blow torch floodgates will be opened. Could be not to dissimilar to the late June 2019 plume. 

Hopefully without the North Sea drift which gave surface temperatures of 18C with 24C uppers!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, march of the Azores ridge unstoppable:

Heat poised more favourably:

For summer, the 192 chart is a classic setup.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m liking the model output at the moment, since this was first hinted at about two weeks ago, it has stuttered and come into focus on more runs - and for me it looks like the summer heat lovers dream of a reloading pattern of a trough in the Atlantic, with Azores ridging, and break off of repeated mini-highs into scandi.  Rinse and repeat.  Last seen in 2018.

12z runs are variants on that theme, GFS looks textbook, T144, T192, T240:

GEM gets a bit more carried away, but the result could be some thundery weather:

UKMO promising as far as it goes T144:

I think we are good for proper summer weather for at least a couple of weeks here, and possibly much longer.  It is a good time of year for the pieces to fall into place with a blocked pattern.  After the washout and cold May, the outlook could hardly look better in my view.  

 

I’d take this pattern all summer. With the occasional plume to get into the 30s. I sense it’s only a matter of time.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GFS 12Z is an all-out stonker!        

                                                                                           

Not for the east on the above two charts - just for fun at that range though!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm convinced the Liverpool Airport station is compromised in some way- it's consistently considerably warmer than the stations close to it.

I would be interested to know if it's an official site and to see the exact location of the station as there is nothing geographically that would explain its higher readings- if anything you'd expect it to be lower than the surrounding area with its proximity to the Mersey estuary.

Makes a change for another airport’s readings to be questioned - poor Heathrow is bracing itself for the annual onslaught!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A sunny start today, none of the low cloud nonsense of the previous days. Hopefully we should reach the mid twenties today. Somewhere could see 80f reached.

Quite a few places already at 24C - so highly likely I’d say.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Great output and I’d say there’s a great chance of this June being a good one - certainly better than in recent years (2018 excepted).

And it reached 25C today - su saving Spring 2021  from being a rare example of one that didn’t reach that mark.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Don’t think it makes a lot of difference whether Spain currently has extremely hot air. It can build there very quickly.

I’m sure it took longer to build last year, and we were able to tap into it a couple of times later on.

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

38 minutes ago, Howie said:

Very irritating but such is the weather. There's also a big area of solid cloud forming to the south of London in the radar, typical

Looks like a convergence zone, possibly aided by some uplift from the Downs?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, Howie said:

I really didn't want silly fair weather cloud to ruin the sunshine today

Wasn’t forecast either!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Starting to draw air from more of a southerly direction. Should see temps in the SE shoot up after a fairly slow start in places.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

It’s not like a storm is going to produce anywhere near the deluge of rain we’ve had over the past month or so, is it? Also, not everywhere will get hit with a storm. 

Maybe not - but I don’t want to see any rain, storm or not, for at least a month - that’s how sick of it I am!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

As much as a good storm is nice, do we really want more rain?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

33 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The low cloud was completely gone by around 10am here (Well Huntingdon where I am working today). Very nice how with just some patchy fair weather cloud.

Tomorrow looks good with the winds south of east so there shouldn’t be widespread issues with low cloud (just shallow patches that form tonight). 25c possible to finish the month.

It has been a lovely day, despite my nit-picking at the forecast! Cloud was gone from here by 9.30an.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Pretty poor forecast for the SE today. Although the sun has made it (eventually) for the whole region, the low cloud wasn’t forecast, and today was meant to be the warmer day of the weekend (it isn’t).

OK, the general picture is similar, but you expect pros to be able to get the finer details correct.

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

8 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

Can't believe people are looking for a breakdown already, I know it's the model output thread but we've just endured a terrible MONTH of temperatures and then when we finally get what we've wanted, people are already looking for the breakdown of it rather then keeping with the positivity of what we've been wanting for the pasts few months. 

I don’t think most are actively looking for a breakdown. However, if it’s shown in the models, there’s nothing wrong with discussing it.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

@Mr Frost, looking like we could top 25C tomorrow. This would save this spring from failing to reach that benchmark, which Is very unusual.

When was the last time that Spring failed to reach 25C I wonder?

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I beg your pardon . . . 

 

Along with the sunshine,

There’s got to be a little rain sometimes!

(Scratch the last line - we’ve all had enough!)

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

We should know by now, the models giveth and taketh away?...besides, the models don’t control the weather, it’s the other way around so you can’t really blame the models for not showing what you want to see?  

Wasn’t blaming the models - just saying that they aren’t showing such a positive outlook as a couple of days ago.

However, I will blame the GEM for flip-flopping around too much!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Has anyone mentioned the GEM 12z?...I’m not surprised..it’s not a gem!  

 

 

This model was showing a protracted and sustained warm spell the other day - it’s beyond useless.

Having said that, the outlook seems to be looking less promising with every run.A couple of days ago we were looking at low to mid 20s in London all through next week.

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Blue...

I'm getting 1996 deja vu ...ironically enough England hosted the Euros that June too..

1996 wax a pretty good summer, although it tends to be forgotten as it directly followed the historic summer of 1995.

Positive output this morning - breakdown downgraded somewhat and high pressure never far away.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

25-27c is where we need to be now. Not south of 20c.

Bear in mind the average in London for July is around 24C, you may wish to moderate your expectations! High teens is around average for mush of the country in early June

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

17 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

 explains why there all not in here banging the drums this morning , either that there not up yet

Or maybe because in the reliable frame, the charts are showing pretty much the same as yesterday.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

26 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

And Tomorrow's charts will show something different!  

With cross-model agreement and positive background signals, I think we ate OK for at least a week of fine weather.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

The GFS keeps sending a low up towards us around Thursday next week and very consistent with it. A lot of rain with it as well

I’d be surprised it it turned out like that. This low hasn’t even formed yet. If it was a standard Atlantic low then I’d have more confidence in the modelling.

i also wouldn’t worry about precipitation forecasts - I’d expect it to be showery rather than widespread, heavy rain.