[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Typical - finally get some better convection, and the wind direction changes.

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

The reality is that too many succumb to the hype in this thread when the models showing a cold spell.

Maybe people will be more circumspect in future, and not scream “snowmageddon” when they see -12 uppers.

19 days to go before I start the search for warmth!

Sadly, the models have pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for this spell.

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

4 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Radar has ppn fading by the hour across EA and SE. 
 

looks to be a cold, clear night 

Looks that way - can’t work out where the showers suggested by the Met will come from.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

I know.. just not kicking in.  Appears to be losing its omph as what little convection fades away with the sun.. 

And predictably the opposite of what the METO were saying - unless it's meant to liven up later?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Just now, Floatylight said:

Surprised given the minus temps all day the thick snow on the paths  has melted so fast.

Snow all day and no settling?

Not even ice on the ground?

Those wind chill temps are very low so I can't quite work it out.

The wind chill temperature is not an actual temperature though.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

The 80’s were full of glorious long snowy periods with snow settled for days on end. Don’t think sun is an issue

The continent is covered in snow - and many places have a more southerly latitude.

More to do with the lack of anything heavy.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

5 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

I was thinking that we weren't going to be seeing much more snow out of this cold spell but the latest MetOffice video forecast actually looks pretty good for Eat Anglia right through tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

OK - it'll be dry then! They haven't been great recently.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I know the snow chance are still possible for tomorrow but it feels like this spell is running out of steam and on its way out.

Snowfall would place this in my Top 10 for my lifetime but closer to 10 than 5 probably settling around about 8th. 

Depth of Cold would put it around 7th over the last 48 years.

The problem with this spell as others have noted has been the build up, you simply cant expect the temperatures 2 days before to be 12c, the day before 7c and with no frosts to cool the saturated ground down there really was going to be problems with laying snow. Snowfall intensity has been pretty awful and nowhere near the 3 big spells of 1987, 1991 and 2010. 

All 3 of those spells were the traditional Sunshine and Shower type Easterlies with convection growing upto 15,000ft and Thundersnow reported in all of them, this spell like the last Beast in 2018 have relied on showers coming along through a stratus deck with no sunshine between the showers.

So again although not anywhere near the best it certainly has been good enough for sledging, snowman building and Ice Days which is what you would expect from a Scandinavian sourced airflow in early February.

Hope the cold holds on and any Atlantic wetness is deflected away, would love to see a week of cold Scandi High dry weather to get that cold into the ground and who knows the next snow to come after that could be of a much better quality.

Paul, what do you think prevented this easterly from bring a classic? Did the remnants of the LP (Darcy) scupper deep convection?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

Agreed. Whilst some in our region have reported heavy snow showers and some of these especially in East Anglia may well be correct, I can't recall much in the yellow and orange intensity category on the NW radar indicating this to be the case.  In the 80s heavy snow was when you could look up into the sky and see it full of large snowflakes for a long period of time.  We have 10cms here and I've not witnessed that once.

Yes, I recall seeing blue sky then some towering cumulus in the distance, with the horizon blotted out as the snow moved in. Don't think we will see the like of it again I'm afraid.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

2 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

From my novice point of view, I am intrigued about how the 850 temps translate to what is going on at the surface. In the run up to this cold spell, -10/-12 uppers were frequently mentioned as putting us well clear of any marginal issues for (lying) snow. However, these uppers which are occurring right now, are definitely marginal for lying snow, with surface temps hovering around +1/+2 in many places.  Makes me wonder what sort of uppers we need to be looking at in the longer term forecasts?

I think it's a bit of a lesson in meteorology for some folk on here. There is a lot more to it than sub "-10 uppers over a warm sea will see copious amounts of snow." That theory has been blown out of the water, but I hope that people remember it next time we get a potential easterly (they won't though).

Models seemed to have dropped the Scandi high now, and we have to rely on other things now.

20 days to get something decent before Spring!

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

After the last few days of snow melt I have come to several conclusions. Apart from weather fronts giving large dumpings of snow I can no longer be bothered to chase cold spells in February. After January I will leave it until the next year. If there's one thing worse then no snow it is having snow that doesn't settle or melt quickly. Sun is just too strong even with clouds. 

Also not to expect any settling snow after a mild spell as the ground retains heat for a while. The only way round this for some people was  getting a large covering at night that lowered the ground temperatures and allowed the snow to settle or some hard frosts for a few days before any snow. 

And finally not to waste time with weather apps as they are rubbish. 

I realise that we do get some very good snowy spells in February but boy is it exhausting. 

 

I agree with some of this. However, it is perfectly possible to get heavy, settling snow in February. The problem this time is that for the most part, the snow has not been heavy or continuous enough. I also think that the wind isn't really strong enough to mix up the lower levels to prevent heating.

But yes, more things have to go right in February to the conditions just right.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

The snow is very hit and miss, even in the more affected areas. Some places getting barely a dusting, a few miles up the road a few inches, for some even been snowed in.

Check out the Scotland thread, some eastern parts (near Perth, Dundee) having snowmaggedon through today.

And that's been my point - it's been very limp down here.

To be fair, this easterly didn't look like having the low thicknesses of the classic ones of the past. But I would have expected far better than what it's actually delivered down here. A nice cold spell, but 2/10 compared to what could have been.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Well, overall this easterly spell is underwhelming except for a select few. Been under cold uppers all day and had about 15 minutes of light snow.

Even the showers to the south of Essex are nothing like those further north in the country.

The south east used to get buried with these easterlies.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

If you are talking about over Norfolk way then that is just pot luck.. This is how streamers and lines of convection work when coming of the North sea.. The difference of you seeing snow or no snow can be half a mile up the road sometimes which we all know how frustrating that can be... 

I expect it’s also to do with the flow strength.

i read a post last night saying that the parameters are almost identical to the Feb 09 event, yet the outcome is nothing like that.

Just trying to increase my understanding, because on paper this should have been so much better.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

See track... The sea track is much shorter over our part of the world. 

But the sea track is even shorter for S Essex, yet there is more shower activity there than over Suffolk.

Must be something else inhibiting the convection.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Remember that this is the 0z suite - notoriously progressive.

Wait for the 12z before calling anything.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Another bust of a forecast! How can sub -10 uppers over a relatively warm North Sea generate so little convection?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, yamkin said:

 

The convection in the North Sea off the coast of Essex and Suffolk is quite meagre.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Lord Grogon said:

We do. But they tend to be driven rather badly

Especially in the former Essex republic of Havering!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

Slowly starting to give up on snow for my area 

Wherever that might be.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I wouldn’t give up hope. That frustrating warm front is moving south and shrinking away. Also the snow over Norfolk is now getting further south so hopefully more of Cambridgeshire should come into play in the next couple of hours.

So is the precipitation over Essex more down to that warm front than convection?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

In the mod thread, the ECM is prolonging the cold!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

I thought the wind was meant to change to more ENE?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Hope this peps up later! Light to moderate snow for a while, but this ought to be so much better!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello Bromley from Orpington - the blob out over  Sufflok looks great and is back bouilding of the coast, my concern is that once it gets to north Essesx it appears to shear of southwards or just stops.... if you can please play radar and see what you think?

Can't see any reason why that would happen - I see what you mean though.