Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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Let’s hope the westward corrections continue!
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58 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Have to say I think chances are probably less. Max 850’s I can find are 12-13C and increasing through the day. In 2018 we recorded 31C at Bournemouth airport under 850s of 12-13C but that was after no rain for 6weeks and a relatively warm airmass already in place at the surface. I think max temps tomorrow will be in the 27-28C range, might even struggle to break the daily record with I think is 28.3C, even the ever optimistic Arpege only has 28C. Monday also looks a bit toned down (bit like today, 2-3 days ago remember we were looking at 27-28C for today)
You don’t need a long dry spell to squeeze more from 850s, maybe except when going for really high temps.
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Love the way how inaccurate the automated forecasts are!
Showing 27C for London tomorrow, when it’s blindingly obvious that 30C is under threat.
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At that range, highly unlikely.
The models have already extended the warmth next week, so they ate struggling beyond T96 at the moment.
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The ECM, although becoming unsettled, is nowhere near the GFS horror show.
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30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
Hi DJ, thanks for that, but I was only talking about one chart at day 10 that someone else posted....not the run generally as I haven’t even looked at it yet! ..I may not bother now...
I think it was your comment that it "wasn't a bad chart" that raised a few eyebrows. I love your positivity, but that was stretching it!
Anyway, let's not fall out over it - nothing wrong with a bit of lively discussion eh!
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You do have to say though - nowhere else in the world is as unlucky as we are with weather. Literally everything that can go wrong has gone wrong to get from our current pattern to what the GFS is showing. This is why I don't think it will be as bad as that - the odds must be so small.
Sadly, the anomalies look like they were way off the mark this time, which is a shame as they are usually pretty good - if it turns out like GFS is showing.
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Just now, DCee said:
Yes my sentiments exactly. One good thing though is that all those people who have moved to Cornwall during the June stamp duty holiday will be in for a shock!
July is where are hopes should be focused now, might scrape something very backend of June.
Not with that pattern you won't.
However, it's so bad, it won't turn out like that.
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30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
Luckily, not to get too technical, I’m a green snot fan ..that bottom Gfs 12z op chart would generally speaking translate to warm sunny spells (because the sun is warm in June)..DUH!.. and heavy, perhaps thundery showers..nae bad ⛈
I like your posts nomally, but this one is just plain misleading.
It's one of the worst runs you can get for summer.
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1 minute ago, sheikhy said:
Is it me or ecm an upgrade between 96 and 144 hours!!!❤
It looks that way. Let's see where it goes later on.
Although I said earlier that the models weren't looking great after midweek, I'm still by no means convinced that they are correct.
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ECM 144. Might squeeze out another hot day in places:
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13 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Pretty sure you’re not allowed to post a comment like that.....
OK, it's only GFS, but it is a poor run from midweek next week onwards, especially the further north you are. If people are happy with that, then so be it.
I just want to start a bit of a discussion, as the anomalies were not suggesting a trough dominated pattern for the UK.
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Yes, it could be worse. But Azores high a long way back in the Atlantic, and negatively tilted. That's not a great place to be going forward for summer prospects.
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GFS and UKMO head downhill rapidly next week. I know I've tried to push the anomalies, but something has to give.
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1 hour ago, Alderc said:
Is classing model output in the second half of June as dire with supporting charts showing low teen maxes moaning? I think thats a pretty accurate assessment to be honest.
It won’t happen - not backed up by the anomalies.
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Fair to say, all models have been really poor at even short range.
But I still expect temps to be modelled upwards at the weekend as it gets nearer.
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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Once again wake up expecting blue skies and it’s completely cloudy. Ridiculous.
They did mention that today would not be as sunny in western parts, although you aren’t THAT far west!
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The ECM has been woeful after 144 with how much it’s been changing from run to run. Upgrade? Really . . .
I don’t believe the anomalies support anything overly unsettled next week. So maybe a slightly cool down, but nothing like ECM is suggesting.
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Lovely to see high temps coming into the reliable time frame.
it seems that 30C is quite likely now.
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Models can change quickly. Only a few days ago, there was little if any sign of anything hot.
Really hoping we can get 30C on Sunday to expunge that ridiculous temperature anomaly!
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
Certainly is, especially in summer!
With SSTs now warming from a cool base along the track from the Azores to UK, and AAM forecast to remain in positive territory, I favour a rinse and repeat of high pressure ridges from the Azores, breaking off and punctuated by lower pressure for a few weeks.
Hopefully one will break off and lead to a decent plume!
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
So, the mysterious UKMO T168 chart makes a reappearance after ages. I’ve never been entirely convinced whether it exists or doesn’t!
ECM good to T168 but then looks messy to me.
GEM good and has high pressure to the east with a bit of a breakdown T240.
GFS a bit more messy.
But, if we are now agreed on an Azores ridging scenario where highs break off and get cut off then there will be periods of fine weather punctuated with more unsettled spells, and this is what I think we are seeing on the models, and it is fine by me, decent summer weather, and probably a few thunderstorms in there too, I like the output at the moment.
Looks good to 168 across most models - I’ll take that, as anything after that is fantasy land.
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1 minute ago, Alderc said:
While getting to 30C on the 13th will be tricky it’s hard not to see the pitiful date record at least nudged upwards a touch given the output this evening. It’s all really strong to at least 168/192.
That blot on our summer copybook has to go at some point!
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And it’s day 10 - so zero chance of verifying! However, some of that cloud would likely break, where it would become hot and oppressive.
As I said earlier, retrogression seems far less likely going by today’s output.
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Model output discussion 9th April onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Djdazzle
Who’s worried about fictional rain charts!
Great potential for heat and storms in the models - all good!