Djdazzle

Not buying any of this cold outlook yet. Good to see cold potential in the output rather than mild dross, but way too early to get excited. A couple of weeks ago, the models were showing a cold Christmas, which rapidly disappeared as the time approached. That Azores HP either needs to dissolve or get sucked north to increase my optimism.

The first spell was only ever modelled way out in FI, so it can hardly be seen as a failure. I'd understand it more if it's gone wrong at T72 (which has happened on numerous occasions). Models look like standard December fayre at the moment. Maybe January will see a pattern change.

Anyone hoping for significant cold in the UK should review their expectations based on a chart like that. Just not going to happen with the HP stuck where it is.

So lots of despondency over tin the model thread - unsurprisingly! If people go looking for a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, they will end up disappointed. There was never any good signs of a significantly cold spell this month. And even those small signs were way off in la la land. I am going by the belief that there will be no significant cold spell this winter, at least in the south, because this seems to be the form horse these days. If we do get one, it will then be a pleasant surprise. People need to lower their expectations massively.

That forecast would be correct 90% of the time in December. No surprise that Exeter go with it. Since some of their epic busts, is it me or do their forecasts seem more conservative now? I'd take a UK high now, even a cloudy one. We need to dry out!

Small crumbs that we may see something more seasonal as we move towards the final third of December, Nothing to get excited about though - yet.

I was never interested in this so-called snowy spell for the south, because it was in FI and there wasn't cross-model agreement. Time and time again, people set themselves up for a fall. Going forward, the models aren't showing agreement on mild southwesterlies, which has to be a good thing for those who like the weather to be more seasonal. ECM hints at a northerly, although not a potent one.

Calls into question why anybody ever takes the GFS that seriously when it can be so wrong at just 3 days away. It's an OK model for global patterns but useless for our part of the world. It always has been.

The BBC forecasts are such a joke. Gone from 25C to 23C for Sunday. No way on Earth is Sunday cooler than Saturday when every parameter suggests the opposite.

And temperatures in warm / hot spells often seem to get upgraded as the time approaches.

A question: whyare upper temperatures of 20C only translating to 26C / 27C? I know it's October, but you'd expect a bit more than that. Even in Paris, it's only showing 27C.

Models now firming up on a notable warm / hot spell for next weekend. October 8th date record looks under threat.

That would be pushing 90F surely?

This time last year, we were breaking records. Far better than this awful dross.

Yes, still in FI, but the GFS 6z also shows an improvement.

Yes, I don't understand why anyone would want anything other than sun and warmth in summer - we get enough dross for the rest of the year! Tentative signs that the pattern may be changing as we near month's end. Won't be reading any predictions for August though after the epic failure of July's predictions!

Many of the best summers have two great months and one more average one. I think having a terrible month like this will tarnish this summer, regardless of what August produces.

People discussing the intricacies of day ten charts. Will they ever learn? The ECM Is a slght improvement. Baby steps.

Point taken, but luck does come into it because there were a very unfortunate set of circumstances that lead us to the position. I know that we were spoilt last year, and that unsettled weather will happen. But to be stuck in this rut while so much of the continent is dry and sunny is a shame. Tamara is a great poster, but even her great analyses can be thrown by unexpected changes.

Hoping that something changes soon, especially when most of Europe is basking under blue skies and hot conditions. The UK is dreadfully unlucky.

Shows how bad things have got when an abysmal summer run like the GFS is almost a warm outlier. Hoping this ridging being shown for next week gains some traction to rescue us from this horrid summer month. Let’s see if ECM is any better.

I get what people say about long range forecasts being a guide, but when the long range forecast ends up being the COMPLETE opposite of what was signalled for July, questions need to be asked.

True, but this masks how much easier it is to achieve hot spells than was once the case. Achieving a temperature of 90F in summer is now virtually a given somewhere in UK in summer now.

The longer range forecasts were pointing to a HP dominated July - that’s where the frustration is coming from. Then again, we should know better than to trust those!

The anomalies haven't actually been that accurate recently as far as I can see.