Djdazzle

Middlesex lol! Do people actually still use that?

Cloud forecasts at that range are hopeless. The record will go on Monday anyway.

You also get far more extended hot spells than the UK. I daresay that having a far lower population density helps too.

A lot of people don't know how to behave in a normal hot spell - and this is far from normal. It only takes a minority of people to act in a stupid way in order for it to have serious affects on everybody else.

COVID isn't dangerous to 99% of the population. The extreme heat next week will be dangerous to most people if they don't take reasonable precautions.

No - but remember Covid . . . The last thing we need are people driving around unnecessarily, breaking down and putting strain on the emergency services. Or people being stuck underground in London.

Taken from Met Office site: What to expect Population-wide adverse health effects experienced, not limited to those most vulnerable to extreme heat, leading to serious illness or danger to life. Government advice is that 999 services should be used in emergencies only; seek advice from 111 if you need non-emergency health advice. Substantial changes in working practices and daily routines will be required High risk of failure of heat-sensitive systems and equipment, potentially leading to localised loss of power and other essential services, such as water or mobile phone services Significantly more people visiting coastal areas, lakes and rivers, leading to an increased risk of water safety incidents Delays on roads and road closures, along with delays and cancellations to rail and air travel, with significant welfare issues for those who experience even moderate delays

Surely there will be a "stay at home" instruction issued?

I think I posted my comment before the level 4 was issued.

Even the quicker ICON will give a 40+ day on Tuesday. And, it's the ICON . . . You are hanging on to every tiny inter-run variation! It's not good for your health . . .

Tomorrow is too late for the red warning. It needs to go out today to give businesses enough time to make contingency plans.

"Big impacts on health": yet there's nothing on the BBC website. What is wrong with this country? People need to be warned now - most people I've spoken to just think it's going to be a hot couple of days.

But even that isn't quick enough to prevent 40C on Tuesday.

As has been mentioned, even the ECM (the most progressive model with clearing the heat away on Tuesday) would lead to a 40C+ day. I'd be assuming that bets will be off today with regards to beating the record - it's pretty much certain that it will go on Monday and Tuesday.

That's the highest temperature from 18z to 00z. Doesn't mean it'll be 38C at midnight.

40C is more than bearable if you can sit in a shady place, have lots of fluids and don't need to exert yourself physically. The above is not the case for the majority though.

24 hours notice would be insufficient. People need to start to take this seriously now. I'd expect schools to be closed.

Never seen a temperature of 39C on these apps.

Brave call just because of ECM! I think it's at least 50:50 that the record goes on Monday. And then again on Tuesday,

The morning temperatures modelled for Tuesday are crazy. It reminds me a bit of July 1st 2015 when it was 34C by 11am. Looks even more extreme than that.

The shorter range, hi-res models now starting to come into range. As was mentioned earlier, there are a couple of 40C plots on the UKV. ARPEGE etc will be interesting. @CreweCold has a point in that warning needs to be issued.

Insane minima.

Yes it’s an epic failure from the models (and pros) for today. I’ll reserve judgement on tomorrow!

I tried to make a similar point earlier. The models have been pretty off the mark for today’s conditions at very short range. So I still think anything is possible for Sunday - Tuesday. Write off 40C at your peril! UKV had temps of 29 today, and it’s likely to be 32.

Yes agreed about the high cloud - but that in itself wouldn't prevent some sunshine. It's been more like mid-level cloud.