As long as one of the big three show unsettled, that will be the outcome. It always seems to happen like that. The UKMO has showed some more settled solutions over recent days, but not supported by other models.
I wouldn't - it's happened loads of times.
The last 5 days have been the most sunless that I can remember in June. This June is rapidly descending into one of the worst second halves I can remember.
Another test of the models vs anomalies for the weekend. A trough parked over the UK was certainly not a favoured outcome. If that happens, we really are one of the unluckiest places.
I do love your positivity, even if it’s a bit “glass half full!” @Alderc is a bit more “glass half empty”, but he has a point that the next few days are crud for summer.
Need a good ECM - this morning’s op was vile!
I wouldn’t trust UKMO much more than ICON at the moment. The last couple of times when it’s put out a half-decent 144 chart, it’s disappeared on the next run and not supported by any other model.
Not really - just saying that in that run, it’s a perfect storm in that everything aligns perfectly badly to produce it. Therefore, the chance of it verifying is very low.
Nothing overly worrying IMO. There are some good background signals. The problem with the NWP models is that they sniff a pattern and go hell for leather to continue it.
Well it is the model thread!
But it’s a bit hard to rely on them at the moment as they are all over the place.
My gut feeling is that we won’t be stuck in a westerly pattern for too long.
I can’t believe how much they ate swinging around beyond 4 days range.
Have we really advanced in the last 10 years with modelling?
A week’s time - heatwave or cool rubbish?