Djdazzle
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Everything posted by Djdazzle
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Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In a word, no. There has been very little in the ten day range to be positive about. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Often see this when a possible change is afoot: model sniffs it out, drops it then brings it back. Here’s hoping anyway! -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’d be more shocked If the LRF’a are actually correct! They may be correct, but an average to warm summer is just as likely as a cool unsettled one. And even if we do end up with that, you wouldn’t bet against a few hot / very hot spells. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It can’t and won’t go on forever. I have a feeling that it will be a mirror image of last year with a flip at the start of June. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Truth is that nobody has a clue about summer! I don’t see any reason to say this summer won’t be a good one. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully this will be a stepping stone in the right direction. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wouldn’t be the same if you stopped moaning! Hopefully, tentative signs that a summer-type pattern may establish later this month. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even though the outlook is mixed, I’m not remotely worried about summer. At least going forward we are losing that horrid cold airmass that stuck around for weeks. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It felt like July 13 ended the run of quite poor summer months, stretching all the way back to August 2006. Since July 13, we’ve seen a plethora of average to warm summer months. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On the other hand, patterns can flip at quite short notice. We have no clue about summer, apart from the fact that we are highly likely to get a couple of very hot spells, even if it’s generally unsettled. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Djdazzle replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thought I’d pop in looking for some warmth! At least those vile cold charts are in deep FI. I’d rather get the iffy synoptics out of the way in May rather than having them in summer. -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A desperately poor forecast for today when compared to the reality. Can’t get it right 12 hours out - and to think there are those who believe in long range forecasts! -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Typical - loads of mid-level cloud which wasn’t even forecasted. I sometimes wonder if forecasters even look at the satellite images. No chance of record going now. -
Pretty awful charts for April, it must be said. Just wish it was winter - I’d be getting excited now.
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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
There is virtually no risk outdoors. However, cold weather is more likely to drive people indoors, where the risk is higher. -
Me too. I’d be more up for it if we got a historic snow event out of it (just to say I experienced it), but it’s hard enough to get a northerly to deliver snow in mid-winter, let alone April.
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We had snow melt issues in February with -10 uppers on an easterly. The only way you’re going to get lying snow out of this is with a frontal disturbance embedded in the arctic air with some sustained precipitation. The problem with convective showers is that you need the sun to generate it, and it’s way too strong to allow snow cover to last.
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Still at 144 though, so only in the semi-reliable. I am expecting a northerly, but these nearly always get moderated and / or corrected eastwards.
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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
24.5C today’s max. Can we squeeze another 1.1C extra tomorrow to beat the March record? Tonight will be less cold then last, which will help. -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Forgive me if I’m sceptical, but we saw all these bold predictions of a historic January at the start of the year. And we know what happened there . . . if you happen to be correct, good luck. Because that’s all it is! -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The date record has also gone. Tomorrow’s date record is 22C, so highly likely that’ll go too. -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Impossible to say if it will turn out that way. But we will get a cold April sooner or later. -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It just seems a waste at this time of the year - despite what models dangle at us, any meaningful settling snow is extremely unlikely. For the sake of a once in a generation snowfall, I’d be up for it, just for the historical value. But walking around in just a raw wind doesn’t do it for me. -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Djdazzle replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Agreed - why anybody is looking forward to cold at this time of year is beyond me! -
A couple of date records under threat over the next couple of days, but the all-time March record (25.6) is probably safe.