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Djdazzle

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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. Djdazzle
    It has been a lovely day, despite my nit-picking at the forecast! Cloud was gone from here by 9.30an.
  2. Djdazzle
    Pretty poor forecast for the SE today. Although the sun has made it (eventually) for the whole region, the low cloud wasn’t forecast, and today was meant to be the warmer day of the weekend (it isn’t). OK, the general picture is similar, but you expect pros to be able to get the finer details correct.
  3. Djdazzle
    I don’t think most are actively looking for a breakdown. However, if it’s shown in the models, there’s nothing wrong with discussing it.
  4. Djdazzle
    @Mr Frost, looking like we could top 25C tomorrow. This would save this spring from failing to reach that benchmark, which Is very unusual. When was the last time that Spring failed to reach 25C I wonder?
  5. Djdazzle
    Along with the sunshine, There’s got to be a little rain sometimes! (Scratch the last line - we’ve all had enough!)
  6. Djdazzle
    Wasn’t blaming the models - just saying that they aren’t showing such a positive outlook as a couple of days ago. However, I will blame the GEM for flip-flopping around too much!
  7. Djdazzle
    This model was showing a protracted and sustained warm spell the other day - it’s beyond useless. Having said that, the outlook seems to be looking less promising with every run.A couple of days ago we were looking at low to mid 20s in London all through next week.
  8. Djdazzle
    1996 wax a pretty good summer, although it tends to be forgotten as it directly followed the historic summer of 1995. Positive output this morning - breakdown downgraded somewhat and high pressure never far away.
  9. Djdazzle
    Bear in mind the average in London for July is around 24C, you may wish to moderate your expectations! High teens is around average for mush of the country in early June
  10. Djdazzle
    Or maybe because in the reliable frame, the charts are showing pretty much the same as yesterday.
  11. Djdazzle
    With cross-model agreement and positive background signals, I think we ate OK for at least a week of fine weather.
  12. Djdazzle
    I’d be surprised it it turned out like that. This low hasn’t even formed yet. If it was a standard Atlantic low then I’d have more confidence in the modelling. i also wouldn’t worry about precipitation forecasts - I’d expect it to be showery rather than widespread, heavy rain.
  13. Djdazzle
    It’s a very positive pattern in terms of getting summer off to a good start.
  14. Djdazzle
    Based on?
  15. Djdazzle
    A lovely chart for the first day of summer.
  16. Djdazzle
    True. I think one of them, at some point, will be a less transient affair, which is when we will challenge 40C. Hoping that this afternoon’s runs will continue with the general improvements.
  17. Djdazzle
    I read somewhere (maybe on here) that transient, very hot plumes could become more common in the years ahead.
  18. Djdazzle
    Feasible- yes. Likely - no.
  19. Djdazzle
    That chart is so bad - the ECM has somehow contrived to produce the worst possible outcome. It’s like flipping a tail 6 times in a row; hence, highly unlikely to come true.
  20. Djdazzle
    It doesn’t seem plausible. So many signals hinting at a pattern change and I think the odds of us being in the same situation are slim.
  21. Djdazzle
    The GEM flip-flops so much - I pretty much gave up on it a while back. Hopefully ECM will be a good one later.
  22. Djdazzle
    ECM only dips into FI. Looks ok up to 144, which is pretty much the far reaches of what’s reliable.
  23. Djdazzle
    Looks like we are going to have two huge outliers (GFS and ECM) but at opposite ends.
  24. Djdazzle
    It’s amusing eh! Although only a fool would bet against 30C not being achieved all summer! In fact, you’d be shocked if 90F wasn’t reached these days.
  25. Djdazzle
    Models seem determined to scupper any chances to escape this dire pattern we are in. This is by far the worst May that I can remember. In fact, I don’t recall one being even half as bad as this. But still confident of a major pattern change in early June.
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