Djdazzle
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Everything posted by Djdazzle
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A couple of date records under threat over the next couple of days, but the all-time March record (25.6) is probably safe.
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At 144, I’m not that concerned - yet!
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Hoping that GFS, yet again, is barking up the wrong tree with that northerly. 8 days away anyway - horrid chart!
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If this was winter, we’d be praying those cold charts came off. They have no place in April though - yuk.
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I’d expect those to be moderated neater the time. And it’s GFS of course!
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Mid single figures? That would be exceptional for early April. I’m not seeing it getting quite that cold, although a chilly few days looks on the cards.
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Next weekend looking lovely - almost warm! Then maybe hints of a return to cold. Time is running out though to squeeze it into calendar winter!
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Never say never - but unlike a lot on here, I would take spring warmth over cold in March any day of the week! Deep cold should be reserved for winter only. The EC46 are hinting that cold may not be a completely done deal though.
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I'd like to think so too, but you can't deny how often they seem to be the most progressive suite. Anyone else looking forward to some spring warmth currently suggested by the models?
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Why are the 0z runs nearly always the most progressive? Is there some sort of bias built in, because it happens far too often for it to be a random quirk.
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2 ECM runs - I’m already spending too much time in here without more runs to discuss!
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It's quite ludicrous how different the models are for next week. This isn't even close to being sorted out - one way or the other.
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In the words of Lenny Kravitz: "It ain't over 'till it's over"! The models were showing a freezing easterly a few days ago, starting from this weekend. The models then dropped it, but maybe they were too keen with that, and are now backing away from a return to mild? Fascinating times!
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Is the GFSP going off on one, or picking up a trend?
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One thing to hope for is that shortwaves are really hard to model correctly.
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The bank heading through Essex is moving SW, but also shearing to the south. For those further west in Essex and London, don't build up your hopes of that reaching you.
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No - we had this wind direction the other day, and it was naff.
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Typical - finally get some better convection, and the wind direction changes.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Djdazzle replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The reality is that too many succumb to the hype in this thread when the models showing a cold spell. Maybe people will be more circumspect in future, and not scream “snowmageddon” when they see -12 uppers. 19 days to go before I start the search for warmth! Sadly, the models have pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for this spell. -
Looks that way - can’t work out where the showers suggested by the Met will come from.
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And predictably the opposite of what the METO were saying - unless it's meant to liven up later?
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The wind chill temperature is not an actual temperature though.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Djdazzle replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The continent is covered in snow - and many places have a more southerly latitude. More to do with the lack of anything heavy. -
OK - it'll be dry then! They haven't been great recently.
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Paul, what do you think prevented this easterly from bring a classic? Did the remnants of the LP (Darcy) scupper deep convection?
