Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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Just now, draztik said:
But, in all seriousness, this is long overdue. The country needs some water.
Is it that clear cut yet though? I think there will be some rain next week but what happens after is still uncertain.
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Just now, draztik said:
Looking at tonights 12z model updates ....
Thought you might pop up!
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10 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:
Hot and sunny all afternoon here in mid-Essex and Heathrow reached 26.8oC earlier. Sorry if that doesn't fit in with your narrative.
Nope. Had about 30 mins of sun all day.
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4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
One good thing that will come out of this is the St Swithins meme will be officially dead. Looking hot and sunny on the day yet the week following looks dreadful.
Can’t see where you’re getting the dreadful thing from?
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In the reliable the GFS 12z isn’t too bad a run. Still very warm but with chance of heavy showers. OK the FI is vile but who cares! We would be mightily unlucky if it panned out like that.
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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Strange, cause ITV had cloud, not sure what the BBC had, as I don't bother with their forecast. I thought ITV still followed the met. Mind you I'm talking meridian, rather than national.
Let’s hope tomorrow is sunnier.
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13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Where did you get the met forecast?
The one on the website at 8am this morning.
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Yep Met Office said 27c in London with long sunny spells. Why these people get paid is beyond me. One look at this morning’s satellite,it was clear that the cloud would be a pain to clear.
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And GFS 6z looks nothing like the 00z for the same time the following weekend. Rather than a trough over the country, we have a ridge!
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4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
Let’s get that low stuck to the sw, you no what that means, heat and plenty of storms to get excited about. After last night I definitely need cheering up so let’s get some good old humdingers going
This was what the ECM was showing last night. Haven't checked the ensembles this morning, but I bet it's still an option.
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The troughing is well into FI. And here we are with people writing off summer.
I think a temporary blip is still the favoured outcome with the Azores high ridding back in.
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Is this cloud supposed to burn off today? Met Office had most of England under no cloud by 9am, so thst already wrong. Yet another epic failure! Why are they so bad at getting the cloud forecasts right these days?
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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
ECM well out on its own again tonight as the pick of the pack - I mean compare the 240 chart to gem - chalk and cheese!
Looks like we’re no clearer to the evolution into next week either, which isn’t helpful.
With the divergence in the runs starting so early, it’s no surprise that by 240 they are worlds apart.
Still, surely you’d back the ECM over GEM?
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Promising trends on the 12z runs so far. Let’s hope that low pressure either gets shoved north or stalls out west.
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Models chopping and chsnging with that LP. Ensembles still not conclusive. I’m sticking to my T120, and it’s not there yet!
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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Decent ecm also, trough tries to move in but with a weak jet and blocking high to the east it never really makes it.
BBC long ranger tonight says low pressure will make it after next weekend, but seeing the 12z runs tonight you wouldn’t want to put your house on it!
The BBC short and long range forecast always seems to be a day behind current modelling. Just laughable really.
ECM 12z walks a tightrope but the low never makes it.
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8 minutes ago, shaky said:
Wow an absolutely fantastic set of 12zs from ukmo and gfs this afternoom!!heat just keeps going on and on with high pressure over the uk and lows going over the top!!this really is remarkable!!
This is why I keep saying that until the breakdown is modelled at T120 or less, I’m not convinced. Doesn’t matter what the EC15, EPS or whatever say because they are all susceptible to large scale flips.
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I wish this cloud would do one.
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23 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
i dont share your optimism. there is pretty good agreement that after next weekend it will turn cooler, fresher, and unsettled as a mean upper trough takes up residence in the north atlantic. the noaa anomaly charts predict the evolution clearly and the ops are now putting on the detail.
of course it might not happen, its not set in stone, and even if it does happen it might not be a total pattern change but a brief blip before more high pressure domination resumes.
for me, it is the best spell since 1995...And any agreement (if you can call it that) is still in FI, which is where it’s been for ages. It might transpires, but the position of the trough is inconsistent across the models.
I won’t be concerned until that trough is shown at T120, and it’s nowhere near that at the moment.
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Fair amount of cumulus built up in the London area but now the clouds are smaller and well scattered. Hopefully this will allow temps to rise more consistently. Humid air also gives the potential of a late maximum around 5pm or so.
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10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Sadly it goes a bit pear shaped at day 9 and 10, but these are so far away they are liable to change again. Another week looking good anyway!
It’s been at day 9 and 10 for the past 4 days and never seems to be getting closer.
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31.4C was the hotspot yesterday. Today looking hotter so should at least break 32C and possibly a bit more.
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Looking good for 33C in the London area today.
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Could be a hot one tomorrow (well later today actually). High starting tenperatures with fairly stagnant air.
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Met Office long term updates flip like pancakes. Probably one of the most useless forecasts around. Let’s face it nobody has a clue. Other long term signals show August as HP dominated.
We don’t even know how unsettled next week will be, let alone August.