[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

My understanding is that it is not naturally possible for that to happen.

It probably feels like a steam sauna. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Nor has anyone in the world as 40C with 100% humidity doesn't happen.

Is it actually impossible?

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Re the 29c achieved in April with 12-14 uppers, there wasn’t an easterly drift associated with that.

if the 6z can’t be a warm outlier surely?

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Subjective I know, but a good run of 27C days with a couple of 30C days is what I would consider a heatwave. At no point on 06z does London even have a day at that level. Most of it looks average or slightly above - not really a heatwave. And the poor east coast folks will get punished again. Maybe not with clag, but with disappointing cool temps for high summer.

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You may have just opened up the old debate about "what constitutes a heatwave"!

For the last week in June, I think this will do for very settled and warm/hot:

No real way out from a very warm outcome there.

The 582 line / positive height anomalies still very close or over us by D15 on all clusters. Doesn't look like a return to Atlantic driven weather for quite some time. Short-term breakdowns from the SW probably the only option for rain, if there is one:

Subjective I know, but a good run of 27C days with a couple of 30C days is what I would consider a heatwave. At no point on 06z does London even have a day at that level. Most of it looks average or slightly above - not really a heatwave. And the poor east coast folks will get punished again. Maybe not with clag, but with disappointing cool temps for high summer.

Caveat - the above is based on the 6z run.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So warm spell goes out with a whimper on this run as HP regress well into the Atlantic opening the door for the north westerlies to enter to the picture. Please, please, please be an outlier......

I suspect it is an outlier. But the weather can make fools of us all.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Spot on...it's gorgeous and still half the run to update..

Temps of 23c in London on Wednesday. I normally agree with you Frosty but there is no sugar coating that. Not even above average, let alone warm / hot.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Although the heatwave looks to be dead in the water now unless we see a change on the 12z runs.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Great. Two posts which totally contradict each other.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

GFS 18z is astonishing. Then goes for a reload!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Agreed it is the most unreliable, but it doesn’t mean to say it’s entirely impossible, although we all know the chances are extremely remote. Under the right circumstances however, I really do believe we can do it. Uppers will ideally need to be 22+c between mid July and mid August, an uninterrupted slack flow from S’ern Spain, lasting for a few days. 

Nevertheless every model and forecaster at some point have had some big blunders, take the met office on a few occasions, with the unforgettable 2007 barbecue summer! And also past tornadic storm setup days I.e 28th July 2005 and 28th June 2012, which the met office only went as far as describing these forecasted showers on these exceptional days as heavy thundery showers! A bit of an understatement given the severity and danger to life the storms on these days posed. 

In a nutshell, everyone and everything can have it’s ‘crap’ days! 

40C is definitely possible and has almost certainly been achieved in the U.K. before accurate records were kept.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Most likely a technical issue it happens to most of the models now and then

It’s probably looked at NAVGEM and choked!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's crap.

Yes but why? What is it about the way that it is programmed?

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Regarding the 40C temp prediction on NAVGEM, what is it with that model that allows in to produce such extreme values?

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

ECM prob a cold outlier. Would still deliver 30c rather than 32/33.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

16 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

So the continental influences continue I suspect this will continue for sometime with atmosphere changing towards a more el Nino setup along with a relatively low solar activity.

High pressure has dominated being strong in nature with minor blips in between.

Dry hot summer was always very much at the forefront of my mind.

Very happy with the models ecm gem and ukmo all very nice classic 80s style summer home grown heat as well.

Excellent outlook 

Don’t remember that many in the 80s. 83 and 89 were special though.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

56 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That's far to early, however it will clear earlier that yesterday, as it's lifting here now.

Indeed, so why do they mislead people?

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Never understood the flaming June thing. It’s usually the poor relation of July and August. Last time it was warmer than those two months was 1970!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

Met Office forecast had London under clear skies by 9am. Yet another epic fail. The quality of daily forecasts has got worse in recent years, not better.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

lol now the CFS is centre stage. Only days after they were rubbishing it and calling out Crewecold for buying into it. Well despite that, the latest charts are as follows:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

Not exactly screaming heat. Just goes to show how useless it is.

I agree that the CFS isn’t exactly something I’d put money on!

,

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

29 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Well the MAD thread has sunk to a new low. Some begging for conditions topping '76. The lunatics really are running the asylum as the saying goes.

Who was begging for it? Just people excited about some potentially unusual synoptics. No different to wishing for -20 uppers in winter surely?

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

18 minutes ago, cheese said:

Really wish that high was a bit further south though.

Wouldn’t worry about it at this stage.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

 

Oh no, not again. I was hoping we'd seen the back of any easterly winds this summer.

ESE wind wouldn’t be bad at all. Would be warm and dry.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Thats what the chart shows, not saying its right. The heat you crave is also FI.

Well mid to high twenties from Monday. So not really FI.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

GFS 12z also shows it gone by saturday (from NW anyway). What follows is more typical weather.

Deep FI. How many times do we see heat simply blown away only for it to hang on?