[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

1 minute ago, Eugene said:

At long last a change to a more interesting fresher changeable pattern, ECMWF 12Z showing impressive atlantic cold pooling out west/northwest for second half of June, things could get very chilly indeed esp at night if we tap into some if that and hopefully slot mote clear blue sunny skies than thrse god-awful humid cloudy northeasterlies. 

You forgot to mention the total washout.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Horrific ECM, no other words for it!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

GFS does its usual thing of developing a dartboard low over the UK. One for the bin me thinks - no way that would happen.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

Still cloudy - useless forecasting!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

Another Met Office fail. Meant to be sunny spells yet most of England covered by cloud. Hopefully will burn off.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Although if I’m being fussy, I’d like to see that ridge build more NE as it looks like it could get flattened further down the line.

GFS also builds the ridge, but the HP retrogresses and we end up with a horrid Scandinavia LP.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

And with the near continent and Spain set to warm up, we should get the benefit from any plumes that materialise. Still too far out though to be confident.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

This is the scenario I’m worried about and at the worst possible time when summer should be getting into full flow. It sounds really negative but the gfs pattern in the 12z this evening is exactly the sort that can become entrenched over the U.K. for 4weeks delivering days and days of cool wet weather that really wouldn’t be out of place in late October. 

Well I’m clinging to the fact that’s it’s low res and FI! Let’s see what the ECM churns out.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Well GFS beyond 180 is a horror show if you want anything settled or warm.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

The 18z showed a big plume post 240 but the 00z is unsettled. However, both runs built strong HP over the continent so building blocks still there.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

Lovely day. Low cloud burnt off at 8.30am and it has been sunny all day with sone high cloud from time to time.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

The NOAA hasn’t been proven as the best model yet because it hasn’t happened!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

GFS was stop on as early as Friday/Saturday with its outlook for this week and has done very well with its cloud forecasts. Looks like we've got about two hours before the cloud comes in here, tomorrow looks a write of for sun so hopefully something better by the middle of the day as some drier air gets dragged into the easterly.

Further out still some uncertainties, will it? won't it? Re the Azores high ridging up north east to us or will some energy from the Atlantic finally come our way from the North West, looks like another day or two will be required to confirm.

Forecast say there will be less cloud tomorrow.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

40 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

At least the weekend was great  

Was cloudy for most of the day here!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Oh joy, the return of North Sea muck, giving gloomy grey skies and a chilly feel to the day. Vile.

Should be better tomorrow.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes as a summer lover im very happy with EC and UKM this evening, the temps will be warm for most with some storms with a bit of luck.

It does look like the Atlantic will begin to push towards day 9 onwards and thats a trend that cant be ignored but no complaints from me so far, its been a fabulous May and likely first week of June.

It may (hopefully) be a weak attack with the Azores high building in soon after.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

GFS 12z looks unsettled post 240, but that’s deep FI so not worth worrying about yet.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I ment Chelmsford, don't know where my head is today.

That’s about 15 or so miles SW.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I don't know Essex well, are you anywhere need Colchester, as they have, a shower, now, moving slowly towards east London, may be your area but it.

Colchester is about 15 miles to the ESE 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Not here as yet, things seem slow moving, so perhaps your cloud will keep building till you have a shower.

I doubt it. It’s been cloudy for about 2 hours now with only brief sunny spells.. Just cumulus but it’s not moving anywhere.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Far too warm and humid for me; the convection's is too limited as well.

Annoyingly though there is enough convection to make it cloudy.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

Quite disappointing.  Very warm but mainly cloudy with the odd sunny spell,

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

The U.K. trough is gone on the GFS 18z.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

2 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Not much wind and high shower risk in between sunshine. What’s not to like. Much more interesting than a flat zonal flow

If you want a June 2007 repeat then I agree, it looks fine.

Ofher than that, it is a truly vile summer run.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

If that ECM is correct it would be unbelievably unlucky considering where the jet has been running. It would also make a mockery of some of the medium term forecasts showing HP dominant over the UK in June.