[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

There are some seriously grumpy people in here today!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

The really cold uppers haven’t even engaged the warmer North Sea yet. There is the potential for huge convection, yet we all know how bad the models are at picking it up. Those writing off snow chances need to bear this in mind.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in.

Met office extended updates flip and flop like a flag in the wind!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

The way some are talking, you’d think the snow will simply just end at the edge of the amber zone! It’s a very rough guide and will change. I’m sure most of Essex will get a good dumping.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Yes I believe it is FOR THE SOUTH as I clearly stated, when you have pretty much every model on the same wavelength and the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement, how can it be seen any other way? I love the cold as much as anyone but based on what the models show right now within a pretty reliable timeframe I feel my view is fair.

I agree to the extent that the models are showing this. But it’s your insistence that they are definitely correct which is causing the replies that you are getting. In this situation, within the broad pattern, a 100 mile shift can make the world of difference. Usually, a 100 mile difference with your average Atlantic depression makes no difference to the overall outcome, so nobody comments on it. On a global scale, 100 miles is like millimetres.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Would just be typical now if the pub run gave us a Saturday night special.

Anyway, the ECM mean, were it a single run, would probably be cold enough to deliver a snow event Thu / Fri.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Was it not last Saturday when the models had a big wobble.  Data going in will be different at weekends, different flight data and 5 day a week data sources

Isn’t that the argument that gets dragged out around Christmas every year?

ECM mean not looking as good. Is the op at the top end?

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Earlier in the day I read a tweet it’s unlikely for it to have flipped to other side of extreme. And if there was a sense of uncertainty Met Office written outlook wouldn’t be so bullish with cold and wintry conditions persisting. 

 But your post implied that you knew the MOGREPS output. A bit misleading.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

UKMO really ???

Compared to its previous run. Looked like the cold air was being mixed out quicker compared even to the GFS. Wonder what the 168 chart will show?

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

It’s only a change if it has support , why do so many people come to a conclusion before seeing where a run sits in the ENS

 But there is support. It’s not just the ECM op - GFS, GEM and UKMO.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

There must be a pretty strong signal for the models to push the LP through so quickly, which seems to go against the intuition of a lot of the experts on here. Let’s hope it’s a case where the signal will be dropped in later runs.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, Reverse Zonality said:

I think you're being just as premature. This won't be resolved for days - think how much data has got to come before next Thursday!

I agree, but people were rubbishing the GFS for what it was showing, saying they would much rather trust the ECM. Are they saying that now? It has to be said it is a big change from its earlier run.

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So those who were rubbishing GFS earlier today may have been a bit premature. If this trend continues we could be in SW’lys next weekend.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

ECM has a round LP. Not what we want to see.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

6 minutes ago, Buzz said:

It'll take days, might even be a now-casting event. We certainly won't be that much wiser in 24 hours.

Probably. But if the LP is sitting over the Midlands on tomorrow’s runs then that will require a bigger correction southwards  if we want it to be all snow. It may also be miles south by tomorrow’s runs. Was so hoping for a drama free week so as to focus on the here and now stuff. Oh well!

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

I think we will have an idea of where this is heading within the next 24 hours. If we want an all snow event, we don’t want to see the LP any further north.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I remember back in January 1985 and that cold spell and I think it was around 9/10th, an Atlantic depression was forecast to bump into a cold air mass over the UK from the west south west and dump 6 inches or so over the south and this was only 24 hours before the event. Of course the channel Isles was only effected and the MetO left with egg on their face - so a very hard forecast to make currently what will happen end of next week, maybe a 24 hours or less before we know will happen.

I remember that well. I was 12 at the time and went to bed expecting to wake up to a load of snow. Wasn't happy!

Anyway, back to the here and now. Just got back from taking the dog for a walk; that wind is freezing!

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Feel more confident that the GFS is on the wrong track having seen the ECM ensembles.

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I do think that the GFS 6z is the more unlikely solution. But we also need to remember that there have been examples in the past where strong blocks of cold air have been easily shunted aside. Didn't that happen in Feb 1991?

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

5 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Variations from a couple of GFS ops and it may be onto something, however we need to start seeing cross model agreement before the path and strength of this system can be resolved. ☺

True, but the ECM and UKMO has also trended further north, but to a lesser extent. Not saying GFS is right by any means though.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Got to laugh at the GFS, completely displaces all the cold air and brings the low up at a pretty terrible angle. Useless model.

Why? It’s perfectly plausible.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

So much for the LP to correct south! The trend is clearly the opposite.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

No mate, Romford, Essex. I don't get it as if these apps take their data from the models then how can it be so different? People talking about snow from Monday evening to Wednesday - maybe not constant but certainly what you'd read as disruptive and these apps showing diddly squat. If they get the same data then why don't they show what we're being told and seeing on here? 

The apps are beyond useless. Ignore them!

i see you’re one of those die hard people who still cling to calling Romford as being in Essex lol!

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

That LP to the south seems to be gaining support.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

And this one from the late great Ian McKaskill