[Model output discussion - into 2018]

ECM looks amazing. But, we have seen it churn out amazing runs like this before. 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Still snowing here.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Give it time!

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

6 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

The showers keep dying between Suffolk and Kent coasts..... Arghh

You need colder uppers and a stronger wind to bring those showers further inland.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

If the ground temperature is zero or below, snow will settle readily even on damp surfaces. If th snow is heavy enough, it can even settle on surfaces which are slightly above freezing.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Wet sleet now, vile alright

Sorry but we couldn’t find any dry sleet!

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Turning to snow here and feels very cold!

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Literally turned to snow in the space of 10 minutes.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Raining here in North Essex, yet it’s meant to be snowing further south. How does that work?

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

I hate it when they say the weather is going to be cold, yet the temperature shown is actually the seasonal average.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

er, 2010?!

 Not a classic Easterly in Dec 2010. Not like the ones we had in the good old days!

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

27 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

Looks like any snow will only be on high ground Monday,according to latest met office update this afternoon. 

What a load of crud this cold spell has been for SE

 

Roll on a decent Easterly this winter please 

Been waiting 26 years for a decent Easterly in winter! Northerlies and North Westerlies are always naff down here.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

There does seem to be growing interest in a pressure rise to the NE for the last third of December. Those drawing parallels with December 1962 may be onto something. I’ve often heard it said that the best winters have a couple of hors d’oeuvres before the main course.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

24 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Steve M isn’t getting excited so that tells me enough

I love Steve Murr’s posts, analysis etc, but to be fair even when he does get excited, 9 times out of 10 things still go wrong for coldies.

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

I think the reality going forward is that there just isn’t enough blocking to sustain anything cold for any length of time. The models aren’t showing any clear signals for establishing blocking.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Surely you need a much better cold feed with these sliders? Extremely marginal at best on the ECM. The best sliders in the past have cone up against strong blocking with a cold feed.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Yet Chris Fawkes is talking about disruptive snow!

Is this a forecast based on the more recent 12z runs I wonder?

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

I want to believe in the gfs this time but unfortunately the way it performs in the stats tells you everything you need to know. Think most places will be more wet than white. Would be interesting to see the ukmo 168 chart. Because I think we are going to see a brief northerly shot at end of week before Atlantic moves back in. Think ecm will be on the money. And it seems the met are edging towards the ecm output from there updates 

ECM hasn’t come out yet . . .

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Channel lows are such rare beasts though. But surely we are due one!

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Still a lot that could happen. 120 hours is a very long time in model output. Look how much has changed over the last day and a half.. 

True, but very unlikely if the ECM shows cross model agreement later.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Interesting that people were saying the other day that the Atlantic looks dead and the one thing that won’t happen is a return to zonality!

 Very poor output now if you are looking for cold.

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

1 minute ago, 40*C said:

A little step back in the models this evening with any cold being confined to Scotland and along the North East coast. Elsewhere is likely to be seeing sleet showers rather than snow.

What model are you looking at?

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Don't trust the EC ensembles. Remember when they were almost unanimously behind the Easterly earlier in the winter? And it didn't happen. I'd rather trust a piece of seaweed to be honest!

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

There were lots of comments such as "that block will take some shifting." Yes it seems to be sunk very easily, if the models are to be believed. Am still not buying it yet though.

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Models have been woeful this winter. Met Office updates have also been woeful.

However, this Easterly was never modelled to show deep cold in the reliable. The high always looked like the wring shape.