[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

There were lots of comments such as "that block will take some shifting." Yes it seems to be sunk very easily, if the models are to be believed. Am still not buying it yet though.

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Models have been woeful this winter. Met Office updates have also been woeful.

However, this Easterly was never modelled to show deep cold in the reliable. The high always looked like the wring shape.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Agreement between the big 2 now of winds turning southeasterly and dragging up milder air by Monday.

Hopefully upgrades for the longer term tomorrow as it's starting to look like another 2 day event

Not sure what charts you're looking at to be honest,

And next Monday is a week away, Total speculation at that range with the current set up.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Notice how things are quieter because the South East isn't getting as low uppers or isn't within the cold pool lol excellent run for Central/North East England though! Snow fest fri/sat/Sunday here!

Uppers are low enough down here for snow!

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Days 8/10 also above average uppers on 12z GEFS nick

maybe some don't want to hear it but the gems and GEFS are drifting towards the less cold eps in the mid term. what follows remains uncertain as could be a cold reload. Agreed that the op ECM has been dodgy for a while now but there remains a lack of agreed broad outcome beyond day 6/7. 

Day 8 is FI so nothing to worry about yet.

However, it would be typical for it all to go wrong now that the Met have mentioned possible cold for the whole of Feb. Mind you, their medium term forecasts are no better than the models we get to see

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

On 05/02/2017 at 16:40, chicken soup said:

The most annoying phrase and cliché out of all the annoying phrases and clichés on this forum..countless times we have had the cold in and countless times the snow hasn't come.

Great run in the short term, but not great long term with the Scandy high sinking. But that's well into FI, so not that bothered - yet.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's the model discussion thread; used to discuss what the models are showing funnily enough.  You should try it sometime!

A very interesting chart at 156.  You would assume fun and games would follow?

 

I was just urging caution. Yes, the charts are looking promising, but we all know how poor the models have been this Winter.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Will we get sucked in again? Last time, we had great ECM and GFS charts, virtual full ensemble agreement and support from anomalies - and it never happened!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

GFS 18z rolling out - the last run of 2016. Hoping 2016 goes out with a bang!

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

What's the AROME showing for tomorrow's temps? 

[South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 1st September 2016 onwards]

Gravesend now reporting 34.4C. Just crazy.

[South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 1st September 2016 onwards]

So at last we break 90F in September - first time in 67 years!

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Amazing model output for mid September, with 90F on the cards. That figure hasn't been reached in September since 1949 if my information is correct. Would be very noteworthy indeed.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

6 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

That 44c is the temp on the scale of colours you will also see 46 underneath it.

Ah thanks, that makes more sense!

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

6 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The AROME forecasting some 34C hot spots in the SE tomorrow afternoon.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php

The ARPEGE take on Saturday afternoon - 2metre temps and nebulosity for same time frame (5pm local).

   

Showing 44C not far across the Channel! Not to be trusted!

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Oh, you can almost see a pub run special coming up!

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Just now, shotski said:

Mogreps is showing a block just south of Greenland 

Thanks. Which merely adds to the general uncertainty I suppose.

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

From my limited knowledge, isn't this tropical storm only going to increase the energy in the atlantic, adding energy to the jet stream? As a result, I can only think this storm is more likely to scupper the chances of a prolonged cold spell, not enhance one.

I see your logic, but it's probably nowhere near as simple as that. The push of tropical air could cause WAA which may promote blocking. Doubt anyone has a clue at the moment. Wonder what MOGREPS is showing?

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

With this almost unique tropical storm, surely it must now boil down to human input (the old fashioned way) to come up with a solution. Surely all those pros at the met can sort this out with regards to the track of this storm and it's likely knock on effect to our cold snap.

Probably not, as they have very little experience of this type of set up. A lot of head scratching going on I would have thought.

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Things still no clearer. Would take a brave call to predict a return to westerlies next week. You would not bet any money in any outcome at the moment. Expect some more wild swings on the 0z runs.

There differences that are huge at T72! So how can anyone be confident of what will happen next week?

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

UKMO and GFS differences at short range are astonishing.

BIG ECM coming later . . .

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

It's hilarious in here. All I can see is what has been present for the past few days - huge uncertainty in the models. And just because a couple of op runs shorten the cold spell, that doesn't guarantee it will happen like that.

I think what annoys folk is when others look at a chart, then comment as though that will definitely happen. Yes, I agree that the models are hinting that the cold spell will end earlier. But there is enough spread in the outputs, ensembles etc to keep me interested.

There may well be another swing back later. As others have said, that subtropical storm will cause the models an even greater headache than they are already suffering. So I'm expecting some wild swings. Hold on tight . . .

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

1 minute ago, swilliam said:

Well unfortunately there are quite a few supporting the OP as well.

There are, but the amount of wild scattering pretty much sums the run up.

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

The UKMO 12Z run is an outlier, the ECM has backed down towards more the GFS set up of having the troughing over the UK for much longer instead of clearing out in the North Sea, and even this morning's UKMO run had a slower moving trough over the UK and the result was something similar to this afternoon's ECM run. 

The disagreements also start as early as 72 hours regarding the positioning of the trough with both GFS/ECM looking closer together than the UKMO positioning of the trough at 72 hours. I'm not saying the 18Z is nailed regarding the medium term of its run(no one will know what will happen at this range) but the problem with a slower moving trough is its delays the colder air to get to us, it creates a larger mild sector consequently we end up with more modified colder air. The UKMO run is very clean and colder air will shoot down to all parts by Monday evening on that run, its a small but big difference and its why I was pleased with the UKMO run but it will be a miracle in respect if both the GFS and ECM backs down now. Its certainly not impossible but unlikely. 

I wouldn't trust anything beyond T96 at this stage. But it's the GFS that is out on its own at the moment. Yes, it may be right, but it's evolution is at odds with pretty much everything else.

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Whats your evidence of this out of interest? You saying that because its not showing what you want too see? IF the troughing is spot on for the UK in the short term, it will be the only model that would suggest this with consistency and it would turn out right whilst the ECM/UKMO had us in the colder air sooner which looks like it will turn out incorrect. 

If by some miracle the 12Z UKMO is right regarding the troughing then you would say the Euro models have had the upper hand in this feature. 

Yes its a case of getting the cold in and worry about the details later but is the real cold actually going to come in? You have to have some doubt about that now surely?

So what makes the GFS 18z more likely to be correct than the UKMO 12z? You use the word miracle in respect of the 12z, but it'd be more of a miracle if the 18z was even close to being right. You speak as though the 18s has this nailed!