[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Moderate snow here for past hour or so. Looks heavier due to blowing around in the wind. I think the term “blizzard” is used too liberally sometimes!

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So here we go yet again with hype train because of one ECM model run...i haven't seen others models follow it either... Disappointing

A bit hard to follow it when they haven’t come out yet!

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Flow now seems to be more ENE and more showers popping up in the North Sea.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

1 minute ago, Big Snow said:

I am reaching peak frustration. Can't see anything exciting for north London tonight, showers seem to die as soon as they reach land. Although someone correct me if I'm missing something.

Frustrating couple of days for the north London massive - even that blizzard that crossed London missed me earlier, and dropped an inch in Ealing, literally 15 minutes' drive away.

Hey ho, it's only the weather!

You’re in good company - despite the headlines, most of Essex is snowless and that’s how it will stay tonight. Our area not favoured at all.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

1 minute ago, TheMoonman said:

Not a cloud in the sky. Again. 

Yep same here. And not looking good for anything tonight either. Even with the better synoptics and upper low we still struggle.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Nothing here. And expecting nothing too!

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Clear skies again. Can’t see us getting anything tonight either.

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

I think if the breakdown pans out as shown (and it is STILL an if at this stage), we will have learnt a few things:

Cold air can be easily displaced by warm air.

Low pressure coming up from the south against a block doesn’t always get corrected south over time.

The GFS cannot just be dismissed as rubbish just because it isn’t showing what people want.

Anyway, really hoping for an ECM trendsetter later on!

 

 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

At first glance GFS 6z looking better than 0z.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

7 minutes ago, Lowestoft Weather said:

With the sunshine gaining strength snow showers should move further inland during the day. 

These setups almost always deliver to coastal counties of Eastern England. Showers generally ease in intensity as they move inland as there is no moisture at ground level to absorb into the atmosphere. Inland will do better at the end of the week with the low pressure and more organised snowfall.

Lots of large anvils shooting up in the North Sea at present. Bodes well for later!!!

So what enabled 1991 to see such widespread snow well inland?

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

The problem is that we have quite a slack flow, we need a stronger flow to aid the showers moving inland.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

So can someone with more knowledge explain why, despite the very low uppers and warm sea, the convection has been so poor overall. I remember in 91 there was heavy snow showers all night across a large area.

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

GFS 18z seems further south and east with the low.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

With uppers this low and a warm sea, we should be seeing way more than this. No idea what the issue is, but there must be a scientific reason.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Will the showers really die off overnight? Would be disappointing as they kept going all night in 87 and 91.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Just had heavy shower here. Still snowing now but not as hard.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Light snow here but looks like a bank of cloud to the NE.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

10 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

Now we've lost that South London bunch, can I finally admit that the best pie and mash shop in London is on their side of the river? 

Go on then. Which shop?

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

Vile GFS 18z!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Not sure about any major surprises regarding the shower activity in the next few days - GFS has picked out most of the features already I reckon. Bound to be some that are disappointed. 

My money is on lincs northwards in the best zone for big time snow accumulations from shower activity. The wind veering too SE’ly from Tuesday onwards doesn’t help our cause. We’ll see! 

It’s been said so many times - the models won’t pick out a lot of the showers.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

And to think my TV licence fee is helping to fund those BBC forecasts . . .

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

It feels perishing outside now. Heaven knows how it will feel from tomorrow onwards!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Ben Blizzard said:

I'm done with the mentality of 'even just a cm or two will do - at least it's something' done with all that shizz, well and truly done - I want a big old dumping, and nothing less! Who's with me? 

With these amazing and rare Synoptics, I’d be gutted with 2cm. We got more than that with the slider!

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

Well GEM looks like a horror show! Hoping that the ECM is more like the UKMO.

I’m also hoping that those who are saying MOGREPS moves the low along the channel can rely on their sources!

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

Don’t mind if it’s marginally further south. Better than trending north.