[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

The EC ensembles seem to flip like a pancake!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

GFS 6z continues to show the AH ridge gaining more of a foothold in the medium term.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

edit EC looks warm to hot by 144 hrs as air sourced from way to the South west brings some very warm uppers across the UK.

Lovely stuff.

Although it finds a way of ruining things later in the run. However I’m not placing much credence in that as things seems to be improving in the medium term across the  models which will affect the later evolution.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

21 minutes ago, draztik said:

Its simple, though. Don't reply to my posts & just ignore me. This incessant need to denegrate someone, just because they dont subscribe to your view of what summer should consist of, or how to interpret a particular model.

Based on analogues and the views of forecasters I respect, I consider on balance, this summer will not be particularly notable in terms of heat. This is my view. The end.

This is a weather forum. This is not life or death. If you dont like a comment someone makes, report it. But nothing I have said has been 'out of line'. You just don't like the view. Thankfully this isnt North Korea.  

Which forecasters? Which analogues?

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 minutes ago, draztik said:

lol, you people are too much. For one, this is a forum about the weather.... get a grip of your lives.

Second, just because you want warm hot summers... if I don't see it, i'll post my thoughts to the contrary. 

 

Fine but back up your thoughts with some evidence.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

I'd suggest putting that individual on ignore - does wonders. 

I had them on ignore for about 3 years. Took them off because I thought they might have changed and like giving people a second chance. Seems I was wrong!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Ok then Draztik can you back up your summer forecast with some charts / info?

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Just now, weatherguru14 said:

Oh and the summer having lack of hot spells  for goodness sake its been wayyyy above average for weeks on end ,albeit the odd day here and there..In a lot of summer months in the past its struggled to get past  14/15c at this current date.

Certain people like winding others up. Don’t bite the bait.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

12z another run where the AH never quite makes it, yet there seems nothing synoptically that would prevent it ridging.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards]

32 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Cloud bubbled up a bit but that was expected 

A bit? Total cloud cover in London now which wasn’t meant to happen. Yet another forecasting bust. The daily forecasts have been atrocious over the past few weeks.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

ECM never gets the Azores high close enough. That seems to have been a feature of summers in recent years. Could change though.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

The "cloud" forecasts have been out 12-24 hours this week.. now you are looking at over 5 days away and predicting cloud amounts lol! That's as bad as will it snow.. 

Its Intresting how the GFS always loves to over do it this week was meant to be really unsettled across the board and thus far in the south its been very summery and today is no exception. Okay some cloud yesterday.. 

Yesterday's ukmo and ecm showing something of a smiliar setup is good news... One would assume that as per usual the GFS is blowing the lows up.. 

Granted it has done well with the low tomorrow but looking over the high RES models this morning it looks like barley any rain makes it into the south.. 

It stands to reason that there will be a lot of cloud with a fairly moist airmass moving over a cool North Atlantic.

 

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

GFS 18z is a bore fest. Cool and cloudy westerly winds for days on end while the Azores HP sits out west. What a waste!

All those who wished for a pattern change would be getting more crud, this time from the west.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

It’s way out into FI though. Not overly concerned yet.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Why does it look iffy? Its a solution that has played out many times before. 

It seems to spawn a LP system and deepen it a bit too enthusiastically, which is a known GFS trait.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Gfs 06z a step backwards and the ridging from the south west struggling to build any momentum and quickly collapses back opening the door to the Atlantic from the north West. Maybe a one off or an outlier not great viewing. 

Probably an outlier. Evolution looks a bit iffy.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looking really good this morning- infact the azores high is gaining strength with each passing run it seems.

I suspect that run would be producing some decent temps across southern parts- mid 20s?

 

It was looking really good at 192, then the next two charts seem a bit odd because they seem to retrogress the ridge.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m really not convinced by the 12z’s, TM airmasses arcing around a high pressure really suggests a lot of cloud and again potentially reasonable Synoptics not delivering at the surface. Additionally as the main centre of the Azores high never really displaced from its origins we’ll only ever get a short term benefit from it. If the ecm has a 264 & 288hr slide that low to the north west would be sliding down over the U.K. 

I think we have an unsettled spell likely Wednesday-Sunday with maybe a couple of days better weather following with temps recovering to low twenties, anything else appears to wildly optimistic at this stage. 

That’s probably the most glass half empty view you could take on the 12z runs! It’s unlikely that the temps will be below the low 20s even in the unsettled spell.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Agree. Would be ironic if the North Sea muck was replaced by Atlantic crud! Looks ok in the south but won’t be wall to wall sun.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

It’s annoyingly that the Azores high never quite ridges far enough east to give the UK  a really cracking summer spell. A nice summer spell but no heatwave.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

37 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Looking increasingly likely that the coming unsettled spell will be short-lived, especially for the southern half of the UK. Hopefully some useful rain here before the more settled weather comes back.

If the trend to move the jet north continues,  the south will see very little rain.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

ECM and GFS improved runs compared to yesterday’s 12z’s.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Be careful what you wish for because ECM is yet another horror show.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Poor runs this morning. Worrying that ECM has turned out two very poor runs in a row now. Ok it’s not quite as bad as last night, it’s still a rotten run for summer fans.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

You couldn’t draw a worst 240 chart if you tried. It’s vile beyond belief.