Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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ECM 12z is one of the worst summer runs you could ever see. Very unlikely to happen, although it’s a possibility. But it’s a June 2007 repeat!
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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Ensembles have also also taken a bit of a nose dive, I think this low has shaken the tree as it were. Turning cooler and more unsettled towards mid month is the trend now.
If it’s saying the same thing in a few days, I will take notice. Impossible to call it a trend at the moment.
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Would like to see that ridge build in a bit stronger though. If the jet starts to dive south it could cut off the high.
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3 hours ago, shaky said:
Typical!!its been hot and sunny this whole month of ramadhan whilst ive been fasting but just as it comes to an end on june 15th the weather will decide to go down hill!!made this prediction before my fasting month started aswell and it loooks like it could happen now!!just typical!!
16 days away - might as well be 16 years. Nothing certain yet. But of course the pattern will change at some point.
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24 minutes ago, Matthew. said:
If it wasn’t for the last week it wouldn’t have been anything special apart from how dry it was of course. 1940 however was spectacular throughout for sunshine and warmth
There was also a hot spell at the start of the month. I think you are underselling June 1976 a tad as it had a CET of 17.0 and no June has come close since to matching that.
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32 minutes ago, davehsug said:
Could we leave it until the 3rd week of June please, I'm on holiday from the 10th!
Watching the charts nervously now they're coming in to range. I am after all, the bloke who went on holiday at the exact time the summers of 1976 & 1996 ended, so I have form.
You’d better cancel then!
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3 minutes ago, Milhouse said:
Perhaps some early indications of where were heading next after this current humid and quite cloudy easterly flow. And thats the Azores high coming into play cutting off the easterly flow but maintaining the very warm conditions for most. One thing for sure is the Atlantic seems very sluggish to non existant at the moment.
That would be better for more of the U.K. The hope then would be for the high to drift east allowing a plume to develop.
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Frosty you are a glass half full poster but you are not a ramper. Nothing wrong with a bit of optimism - I and many others enjoy your posts, so keep it up!
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2 hours ago, cheese said:
Even adding that caveat it's pretty obvious that low cloud is going to be a problem for most of us this coming week.
It’s good to paint a balanced picture. The modelled pattern is quite complex and of course there will be winners and losers.
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Using computer apps folks, never rely on them as gospel.
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21 minutes ago, Dami said:
not expecting anything today, cos you know not greedy.
Reverse psychology?
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2 minutes ago, cheese said:
Indeed, seems some people are just seeing high pressure on the charts and foolishly assuming that it's going to be nice and sunny, but for the next few days that doesn't look to be the case away from north western areas. Lots of cloud around that will stick around all day, maybe even a bit of drizzle too. I'm afraid to say that isn't my definition of summery weather.
True that some are being over optimistic. But then again you are giving the worst case scenario!
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1 minute ago, Dbarb said:
Yep can here the rumbling aswell now look at how high they are getting.
Raining now with some hail but I’m only on the edge of it. Somewhere is getting pasted now.
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2 minutes ago, Dbarb said:
Nice capture of a forming cell to my north east
That’s the one that’s rumbling near here.
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Storm kicking off in Sudbury (Suffolk) area. Got thunder to my east and bright sun to the west. Very weird!
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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Agree with this, my location is looking very grey due to north sea mist, winds this week look E'ly or NE'ly, very sunless direction here
suppose depends where you live, but these are charts should be after, not Easterlies
Not quite as simple as that. 1995 was an Easterly dominated summer.
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38 minutes ago, shetland islands said:
This coming week isn't that great dispite the large high pressure. Slow moving pattern bringing warm, mostly cloudy and showery conditions. East Wales, W Midlands and the NW will be best. Some parts of the east coast could be cool and full all week. Thundery showers across C S England on most days. Far from perfect weather. Temps 14-25 C.
I think people are getting a bit spoilt! Think there will still be a good deal of sunshine with the showers well scattered. There will always be winners and losers except in the most unusual setups.
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One notable thing about today is the humidity. With less breeze than in recent days, it’s very noticeable.
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Maximum temp could occur quite late today, as it often does in humid air.
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14 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:
23.4c - certainly not been as hot as they said it would be. Very nice breeze and no humidity, hopefully the storms dont ruin a nice evening in the beer garden!
Highest temps today seems to be to the east of London.
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12 minutes ago, matty007 said:
On the contrary, 30c has occurred a few times in Late May. The sun is very strong and the atmosphere warms very quickly.
Don’t get me wrong, this is lovely weather and a welcome change to the usual dross this time of year. But I like it as warm as possible, I like extremes, so that N’rly was a real pain to me. You could feel the sun was very very powerful today and could feel the real warmth behind the northerly wind.
If we had a southerly gentle wind today it would have definitely been bordering on 30c. The N’rly dimmed the heat by at least 5c
Synoptically there is a big difference between achieving 30C and 32C - 35C. The all time May record is 32.8C so it shows just how rare it is.
A southerly would have been slightly warmer, but temps over France were not much higher than here, so the difference may not have been as much as you think.
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Synoptically there is a big difference between achieving 30C and 32C - 35C. The all time May record is 32.8C so it shows just how rare it is.
A southerly would have been slightly warmer, but temps over France were not much higher than here, so the difference may not have been as much as you think.
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Wonder if the storms will be more localised later?
Beautiful warm and humid evening here with a blue sky.
i know some people don’t like humidity, but it makes you feel as though you’re abroad. Lovely!
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2 hours ago, matty007 said:
That N’rly wind is so irritating. Without it it would feel truly very warm.
With a S’rly wind, you’d expect low to mid 30’s I reckon.
Low to mid 30s? The uppers are nowhere near high enough to get those temps, whatever the wind direction.
It’s hard enough to get those temps in high summer, let alone late spring.
Model output discussion 14/04/18
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
You are speaking like it’s a done deal! As you said it’s come out of nowhere.