Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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With regard to the upcoming ECM, it will be telling whether the op follows the earlier cluster with the HP further south. Don’t let us down ECM!
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144+ is la la land anyway. Up to then GFS is excellent. Anyone expecting continued repeats of runs such as the 6z aren’t in the real world.
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2 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:
It's clearly more than a 50% chance. That is literally a coin toss, which in forecasting terms is a pointless forecast. The ensembles show clearly what the chances are and with 70% or more clustered for deep cold, shouldn't the chances be thus?
Mathematically yes! But I’m adding in an extra bit of caution due to many past let downs. . .
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1 minute ago, metaltron said:
This thread title is really going to rub it in for the next few weeks if it all implodes later! I sense that the Met Office believe the real cold air going south is a real possibility and Cluster 2 from the ECM ensembles shows that this is still on the table. Also a backtrack from the GFS 6z towards the ECM solution (would have been more comforting if the GFS stuck more closely to its morning output!). Nevertheless, I do think a classic easterly, like Feb 1991, is the most likely option, based on the data we have freely available. Fingers and toes crossed for tonight's runs!
Agreed. This is far from a done deal in terms of deep cold. If we start to see more ensembles showing differing evolutions then we need to take note. I’d say 50% chance of deep cold next week. The other issue is that the transition to deep cold is creeping into the reliable frame now, and that’s when things often get watered down. I’m not saying it will, but it can’t be discounted.
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Amazing output. Maybe just this once we won’t be denied.
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All the severe cold is still a week or more away. Haven’t we been here before folks . . .
it would be a vey significant event for so late in winter. But it’s still in FI.
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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.
Which model do they use?
MIA
Which totally seems to go against what John Hammond has tweeted!
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-2 uppers with a continental feed could be good enough for snow. But it’s pointless discussing it on a chart at 9-10 days away.
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Good trend from ECM. Hoping to see GFS 18z follow.
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Oh look, ECM shows very cold uppers heading for Greece! Typical!
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
We will have to agree to disagree here, ecm hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. UKMO has been consistent.
GFS .... I’m not even going to comment on. Other than it’s been moving more and more toward the ukmo almost with each run.
If an Easterly is showing at less than T+96 I’ll be interested!
But you can’t call this anywhere’s near to 50:50. There are far more ways to end up without the Easterly than with!
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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
I’d like to know how on earth we get to a 10% chance of an easterly given what the UKMO has shown consistently for the last few runs...
If the answer is gfs then that’s a joke, it’s shown more outcomes than I care to remember.
Well for a start none of the UKMO output is anywhere near the reliable time frame. Remember that we have had cross model agreement on easterly outbreaks at +72 only for it to go wrong. And with GFS saying no, that adds to the uncertainty.
Like it or not, the Easterly is still very much a long shot at this stage. If there is a good ECM tonight, then the odds improve slightly.
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I don’t get all the enthusiasm for an Easterly when there is so little evidence to support it?
The UKMO 144 chart would surely go on to show the block sinking SE, with lots of pressure from the northern arm of the jet. No support from GFS either. Of course, things can trend better, but I still believe that the chance of an Easterly is no more than 10%. I’m more than happy for someone to convince me otherwise.
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Some nice charts from UKMO / ECM, but chances of an Easterly no more than 10% at the moment. That could change of course.
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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.
If only that were true! It’s happened so many times before, yet people fall for it time and time again - even experienced posters who should know better!
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2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:
Ok ok it's the pub run, but again the question is...WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?!
Tune into ECMenders tomorrow at 3:30-4:30, 5:00-6:00, 6:00-7:00, 9:30-10:30, 15:30-16:30, 17:00 -18:00, 18:00-19:00, 21:30-22:30
Now if that isn't a duff duff I don't know what is....
Duff duff . . .
The only duff thing here is these bloody models!
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The deafening silence says it all! I know it’s one run, but this is a step away from the Euros.
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Someone says 100% swing. Someone else says slight improvement. No wonder folk find this place confusing!
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1 minute ago, danm said:
I would class Feb 2009 as a classic convective easterly. It just didn’t last that long.
But surely it’s the longevity that contributes to the classic status? I still say Feb 91 was the last real classic, not that I would say no to a Feb 2009 repeat!
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1 minute ago, mulzy said:
Day 10 ace - snow moving in from the west.
PS the pros at the MO really know their stuff!
Why do you say that? It hasn’t happened yet. Nor is it likely to at T240!
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It’s not anything like a classic Easterly, but still looks very good. It’s been 27 years since the last one, that’s how rare the real classics are. But who knows how it might evolve?
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Yes that high has a worrying sag on its south eastern edge.
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The problem again is that the really cold stuff was never anywhere near the reliable timeframe. And all this talk about the GFS stepping towards the Euros, implying that the Euros somehow have the correct solution. Amazing charts beyond the reliable will always get watered down as the time approaches.
Sadly a blended solution is no use for prolonged cold.
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MOGREPS may be suppprting the ECM, given the positive Met Office update.
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
As long as a strong Azores high goes back to its home by the summer, I don’t mind!
Great models again today so far. I’m normally fairly cautious, but next week could be special. It’s already got that continental feeling down here with a noticeable east wind.