supernova

To my eye ARPEGE has snow only for higher elevations in the NW next week. Dew points and uppers certainly marginal. Hope that’s not the case.

Pretty uninspiring stuff this morning with GFS ensembles predicting a general cooling trend but nothimg to stir the soul. Not much scatter either for the next week.

It's entirely feasible next week could turn into Slidergate The Sequel. Much colder uppers on this run from both directions (East and West). I would gladly buy a round for @TEITS and @Steve Murr if this goes their way - they've delivered great insight AND entertainment this last week with their insightful comments.

Dear Aunty NW. Can you help? Recently, on a boozy night out, I met a girl called Easy M. She paid for my drinks all night, took me home, showed me a side to her that left nothing to the imagination and promised me a future I hardly dared dream of. Impulsively, I asked her to marry me on the spot. Then, a week before the wedding, she ran off with my best friend Geoff. Unfortunately, GeofF'S a highly-paid American model but isn't the most reliable. So I licked my wounds, pulled myself together, and started going out with this lovely girl, a UK Model, who wasn't quite so progressive as Easy M (if you know what I'm saying) but we still had a great time and the days (and nights) passed quickly. She was happy go lucky, lived for the moment, didn't look too far ahead, and was never too frosty. Now, Easy M has become unfeasibly jealous, dumped Geoff, and wants me back so badly she's started to dress and even look just like my UK Model. I know it makes sense to stick with the partner I've come to respect and appreciate but Easy M just looks so damn good...especially when I see her in the distance. Should I get back with ECM or stay loyal? Oh, and by the way, GF'S been on the phone and says he may have been wrong after all and we should be friends again. Just don't know what to do....

And don't forget, after a nailed-on dip in temperatures this weekend there are still a number of members within GFS ensembles (and the other models) offering significant potential for the longer term. Pert 5 would be fun in Skeggy t

Yes Nick, it’s scraps on Skeggy seafront (in more ways than one!) rather than seabass in the south of France if GFS turns out to be nearer the mark but the op is on the milder side of its ENS throughout the period that’s caught our interest over recent days and which remains some way in FI. Besides, Skeggy’s as good a place as any to witness an Easterly if one does eventually arrive!

Certainly it's a bold call but I can't help but appreciate the fact @Steve Murr is often prepared to stick his neck out. Looking at the ensembles this morning it'd be quite some turnaround, and whilst shenanigans are still expected up high it'd need to produce a very quick response for such a prediction to come right. Either way, I'd rather hope Steve's right than what appears to be an early start to Spring, even if the data before us currently suggests the latter. I guess that's what makes this forum so compelling, FI is never far away!

So cross model agreement for a roaring Beasterly back end of next week. What could possibly go wrong! Lots actually but let's enjoy the moment...if it's good enough for TEITS it's good enough for me. Now where's that runner polish....

06 GFS better alignment of Scandi high and slightly more progressive with increased energy undercutting at 96hrs. Small steps but encouraging.

Apologies Frosty Ground, post amended accordingly.

This morning's GFS similar to yesterday's Para with it all going pear shaped at about 100hrs. We simply don't get enough energy running SE under the block, as shown by the ECM and UKMO. TBH I'm just thankful we've got the chance to latch onto another shot at cold so early in Feb....when I caught up on the model thread over the weekend it was all doom and gloom with about as much action as you'd expect in a subtitled documentary about the moisture content of paint. That said, much as I love an Easterly (Lincolnshire rarely benefits memorably from anything coming from the North West), we've been down this path so many times before, it's important to remain optimistically cautious for at least another three to four days and hope that in the meantime we can find cross model agreement. At least the UKMO is on board with the ECM this time, that's a massive positive, I don't prefer any model over the other but this winter in particular the UKMO has been excellent. Remember also, however, that it was barely a fortnight ago when the GFS led us back from another ECM goose chase at about the same time frame we are currently watching with great interest. Get your sledges out the loft by all means, but for goodness sake don't polish the runners and UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES TELL ANYBODY! Fingers crossed. BTW, If this one goes Pete Tong I volunteer to organise next year's Netweather outing to Lapland. Northern Lights anyone?

Great, informative post Chiono. Based on that forecast, would be interested to know if and what blocking might prevail thereafter.

It cannot be coincidence that charts like the ECM240 are as rare as rocking horse poo....and the chances of it actually verifying are similarly unlikely. That said, it's a delight to have some colder weather incoming in the reliable, and the number of ensemble members tending colder still are increasing as an overall trend despite the usual scatter.