supernova

What an insightful contribution guys. Great knowledge and enthusiasm combined. *watches with interest*

Just don't get this persistent need to bash the MetO. As gottalovethisweather's excellent post (couple of pages earlier) shows, and we see time and time again, FI got it's nickname for very good reason and anything much past days 4/5 is incredibly difficult to forecast accurately. This forum would be a starker place without Fergieweather's input and I'm amazed he remains so steadfastly generous in sharing an inside line when so often people on here (thankfully a minority) are too quick to criticise.

Glad that's cleared that up Nick. Presumably we can all now look forward to significant Atlantic troughing forcing the jet way south with a resulting Greenie high that ushers in a fortnight's cold spell starting Dec 12th and resulting in a significant nor'eastlerley soon afterwards?

Think I just saw some tumbleweed roll across this thread. If it's cold you're after, there's little love to be found in the models tonight, and you know the job's a complete horlicks when Frosty's looking at transient cold from the south west and SM's hidden his sausage and gone looking for a pack of arctic penguins in the JMA. The GFS trying to ramp up the PV is a right royal kick in the nuts after what looked like unprecedented weakness for the start of winter proper BUT there are still signs of northern blocking in the long range EPS, albeit more muted than before, and the Met O continue to favour this outcome according to our most recent information. Besides, if it chucked it down with snow for three days this early in winter what the hell would we argue about until March? Keep calm, there's time.

Interesting snippet from Dr Cohen on Twitter. "Still working on the blog but as a teaser here is a temperature forecast in today's post- nice example of warm #Arctic / #cold continents."

Lack of cross-model consistency (even in the semi reliable) and, thereafter, a messy solution 144hrs onwards makes me doubt the surety of any upcoming cold shot (or any other shot) in the short term but there's one thing I know for certain, the words 'upgrade', 'potential' and 'blocking' were in very short supply at any point last year and those same words have aleady been bandied about quite a bit on this thread as we head towards winter proper. Also, there are still any number of positive synoptics (solar slumber, disorganised PV, Siberian warming, sea ice levels, advancing Eurasian snow cover) in place to make this year far less disappointing than the boring sludge we've endured over recent times. Although all models appear to have their own strengths and weaknesses, I'm as yet unconvinced by the latest ECM updates which appear to have over compensated for its propensity to exagerate Atlantic amplification (am reluctant to recall THAT notorious occasion but there have been other unforgivable teases too). What I have more confidence in, is the quality of analysis and knowledge on this forum, and I'm grateful to all those characters who share their time and expertise so generously....giving followers like me a welcome weather insight, unavailable anywhere else. Keep it up (you know who you are), we don't all have the knowledge to post on here with confidence but that doesn't mean we can't enjoy the ride.

Probably the post of the day for me. Informative, insightful, helpful, interesting and relevant. Thanks for taking the time to write this Vorticity, if I'm representative of the clueless enthusiasts on here, lots of us will have enjoyed reading this.