supernova

That's a worry. Broadly similar and last year's winter was complete toss (much like so many before it since the great Eastern snowstorm of 2010!)

Interesting Blue. Various people here and on Twitter comparing upcoming SSW with the 1985 warming. That event took place in Dec and appeared to impact the weather throughout Jan and Feb which were both cold months (with significant snow for many). Not sure the comparison is a good one but, if so, EC46 as mentioned above and @TEITS's earlier comment about keeping an eye on Greenie (or Icelandic) heights seemed well considered. This is what happened in Feb 1985 after said warming. Feb 3rd. Feb 5. Feb 7. By Feb 10..a snowy Easterly. Frankly I'm cynical of anything GFS shows us much past 144 (or any other model) but if we're looking for trends I'm temped to suggest a Greenie rather than Scandi high might well be an interesting call if history repeats itself. No complaints from me if so.

I prefer your first thought Ed! Very significant percentage of this morning's GFS ensembles showing height rises to our North East with some sort of Easterly occurring in FI. As @Summer Sun has reported in the METO thread, "a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather" fits in with those longer term synoptics very well. Cold week, most models backing the trough disruption back West this morning, widespread confidence of forthcoming SSW, growing doubt over current spell breakdown next weekend, GEFS T850's trending downwards again, ECM op a significant outlier within its ENS. Next week might have backtracked quite a bit from the amazing charts on the pub run a few nights back but all is certainly not lost, not by a long stretch. I have a good feeling about the 12z suites for the next few days.

Only if we're shuffling towards something colder...

Interesting point. I was just commenting on a chart somebody else posted mind.

LOL. Somewhat darkly, that has fo be one of the most ridiculous winter charts I’ve ever seen. Talk about pinning the tail on the donkey. Icy uppers all around, none to drop or sink. Who put Another Pint Of Mild in charge of the blue crayons again?

All charts easily accessible on here http://www.meteociel.fr/ (GFS & UKMO amongst others). And welcome. Oh and GFS exists purely so everyone on this forum can take the Tut out of it. TBF it's supposed to be America's best effort at weather prediction but like Trump it mostly lies.

PS. At least as far as GFS is concerned, FI likely begins at about 96hrs judging by scatter becoming apparent on short ensembles. Can already see that a few members go colder still. Full ENS should be interesting.

GFS & UKMO at 120hrs. If the UKMO is to everyone' s satisfaction (not least as most seem to agree it's virtually identical to this morning's run) can anyone explain why the GFS is so disheartening other than what it goes on to develop in deeper FI? This is five days from now. There's plenty to resolve before then, never mind afterwards. Stay cool. Let's see where the GFS op sits within the ensembles and hope the ECM remains steadfast. 2010 it aint, but better than anything we've seen in the last four or five years it most certainly could be subject to a number of plausible upgrades, most of which have been discussed on here throughout today. Not worried (yet)! PS. Sidney's ready for the first person to post a pointless IMBY distant precipitation/accumulation chart!

Brilliantly insightful post earlier Catacol, thanks for sharing and forgive me for only quoting some of it. Found this first point particularly fascinating because a less influential Azores high has the potential to make a huge difference to how some of the models are modelling events next week (notably GEM & GFS). To my eye, a weaker Azores high would allow a stronger Easterly and extend the longevity of cold. Hard to know for sure of course, not least as this is nothing more than GFS's take on what might happen rather than what will happen, but looking at 72hr-192 on the 06z one would imagine the continental uppers might race across the country and become embedded that bit more eagerly without that pesky AH fouling up the job. Encouraging.

ECM disrupts the trough further West and the result is prolonged cold nirvana. GEM scary (bad, too far East ), GFS alright, UKMO very good.

Best pub run since 2010 far as I can remember. Not saying for a moment the outcome is likely to verify and/or be comparable but truly an epic GFS tonight. So good, in fact, I'd be surprised if the Op doesn't stand out like a parsnip on a snowman when we get the ensembles. Here's praying it doesn't. Either way, joyful model watching tonight. Snow dreams all.

Heartbreaking to see colder uppers from the East mixed out for, erm, 12 hours before they push back in from the West. Still, at least I'll have time to stock up on bread and milk before the next snow event(s).

Eastern block says no to advancing Atlantic. UK battleground. GFS has downed its Stella, ordered a chaser, won on the slot machine and is planning a reload.

Everyone who earlier predicted that winter was over has been proven absolutely spot on. Over the East Coast at 96hrs and the rest of the country soon thereafter. Cheers!

Cold advecting Eastwards faster. Deep continental cold now diving SE instead of South in this timeframe (straight for the UK). Could be an upgrade this. 0100 Sunday 12z vs 18z.

@fergieweather on Twitter. No surprises but no cold water either, no pun intended.

Welcome back Frosty. Few of us on here been wondering where you'd got to. Good to have you back cheering the cold in.

A mean of -5 uppers or better from the start of GFS to the end for Eastern areas. Bank.

Other than it's 144 on That ECM, you mean... Let's blummin' hope this time ECM redeems itself...seen more than enough ghost Easterlies this year, never mind past years. Dare I say it, this set up is waaaaay more interesting than we've seen for a while and somehow the evolution feels more plausible than previous eye candy. Here's hoping. NOBODY. TELL. ANYBODY.

GEM struggles to get uppers much past -4 throughout. Very flat after this weekend, very meh.

Be good if almost everything in the last few pages was banished to the moans & banter thread. Same old story, sadly, first sign of cold potential in the models and there's always someone ready to spew a plume of groundless hot air all over it, swiftly followed by a scrabble of rampers keen to defend a bunch of charts that haven't verified yet. This season has been much more interesting than many recent winters for most in the North/North West and Central Midlands (amongst others) but for the rest of us it's been a damp squib. I've seen a few flakes on the East Coast but as yet the kids haven't had chance to make a snowman (not even a mini one!) which is my standard measure of a winter worth remembering. The models this morning hold a great deal of potential but there is still much to be decided. On this forum, anyone saying we can fully expect cold rain is clearly a masochist and anyone rushing to shoot them down (secretly has my support but...) probably ought to know better. Good trends this morning, I'm very interested to know whether the 12z GFS continues to fall into step with the Euros or even improve on them. The Iceland Met Office site http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp which shows ECM precipitation for next week looks interesting as a front pushes into unusually cold uppers Tues/Wed. Long may the interest continue.

Sorry all - was trying to express how inaccurate models can be rather than tell everyone who lives in the Midlands that the snow they're watching out of their windows is in fact fairy dust. I know better than to accuse every single Netweather member in the Midlands of being a teller of porky pies!

Guys, forgive me, I put my last note across badly. Wasn't for a moment trying to be clever or suggesting you were making it up, just showing how inaccurate models/rain radar's can be (obviously you fellas have the benefit of windows where you live!).

Mmmm. Not according to Netweather's rain radar it isn't (unless you happen to live on top of the Pennines or a tall Welsh hill). That said, I'd love you to be right and see some of the white stuff tomorrow as per ICON and APERGE because looking at the models this morning we are a woefully long way from anything cold. Thankfully, as @bobbydog pointed out at the top of this page, sometimes patience can be rewarded as per 1991 (now THAT would be unexpected based on current set of ENS). Always tells a story when I open up the Models thread and the most recent comments are in Moans & Banter! Still, wouldn't be fun chasing the cold if it came easily I suppose. Let's hope tonight's runs offer a silver lining to cling onto...