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summer fun

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Posts posted by summer fun

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Quite surprised at the extent of that and the amount that has reached the Strat. Those fire fountains must be generating some serious convection cells.

     

    I don't know if the concentration levels are sufficient to noticeably affect the short term NH weather patterns. I think probably not, and those latitudes will not be receiving any sunlight in a few weeks time anyway. Still, it's something to keep an eye on.

     

    Definitely worth watching especially if the eruption goes on for months.

     

    I thought it was a bit of a surprise to see the emissions that high in the atmosphere. The stratosphere at the poles starts around 8 km (26000 ft) ASL.

     

    Given that the eruption is around 5500 ft ASL (that's a guess) then it would still require a plume of around 21000ft which i thought had not occurred yet, i thought it was only around 15000ft.

     

    what effect on climate and health would high concentrations in the lower/middle troposphere of SO2 building up over the northern hemisphere have if the eruption continued for months?.

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    This is a view of the Sulphur Dioxide in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Sept 9th. So we can see that at least some of the sulphur is making it that high.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1lVLVBW

     

    This is the today's picture so far from all atmospheric layers up to stratosphere.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1lVMpIr

     

    Shows quite clearly the amount of SO2 in the atmosphere and how far its spreading across the northern hemisphere.

     

    These pics are also editable so you can change the overlays.

    • Like 3

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Jon Frimann thinks that a small eruption may have started under the glacier based on the harmonic tremor that is taking place.

     

     http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

     

    Karyo

     

    Interesting as someone on twitter mentioned this earlier on.

     

    That there was a change in the harmonic tremor and a sub glacial eruption may have started, unconfirmed at the time though.

     

    Guess it is a case of watching and waiting to see if any eruption becomes visible or whether an Icelandic agency confirms or not the eruption.

    Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just a comment on hurricane season. When we lived in Bermuda I followed the hurricane season pretty closely. There was often a theme that if the hurricane season off the baha peninsular, California was busy (as it is this year) the Atlantic season was very quiet.

    It is looking like this for 2013 season, therefore less likely for any ex tropical storms to come our way. Posted Image

     

    I think according to the weather channel, the increased thunderstorm activity in the pacific is expected to move into the gulf of mexico later this week and into next week. Also that the warmer/drier air over the atlantic of africa looks like becoming more favourable over the next few days into next week but all in all still looking quiet.

    Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    wow, not sure I can honestly answer your question.

    The major driver is ENSO and what follows from that, again my knowledge is not high enough to be able to give you your answer. My attempts at longer range forecasting is limited to the 6-20 day time scale. This is why I use the anomaly charts with constant reference to other drivers, ENSO, MJO, AO, NAO although the latter two are more important in winter. They of course simply mirror what the synoptic models may show, high latitude blocking or mobility although they are useful.

    For summer and winter I find the 6-15 day range is best served, in terms of the major upper air pattern by using the 500mb anomaly charts. Like any other chart they need to be used carefully and in conjunction with other drivers I've mentioned. When all fit together then one can be resonably confident of the upper air pattern within that time scale. They can and do go wrong just like any other prediction in meteorology but over the 12 months I rate them much higher than the synoptic outputs at that range, something like 70%+ correct in the whole 12 months. That is the upper air pattern and not the surface which is much more diffcult to solve correctly due to a number of factors. One of which is the one that bedevils all attempts at forecasting, even at short time ranges, moisture.

    There are two periods when they are less reliable, one is the major change over periods of northern hemisphere summer to winter and the winter to summer period. The other is the next few weeks leading into that first change, the Atlantic hurricane season. Both involve such huge changes in energy within the atmosphere that any model from MJO downwards in time scale finds it extemely difficult to work out how the upper air pattern will be affected.

    hope that helps a bit, others will be able to give you more advice about the longer term drivers I am sure.

     

    Thanks again John,

     

    Very useful information to help my understanding  of meterology. Thanks

     

    Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi everyone,

     

    First post in this thread, great to read everyones thoughts on each run and how one person sees something different to what another sees on the same chart. Reaaly good to to read through the discussion.

     

    With regards to what john holmes says regarding the upper trough dominating on the anomaly charts, do you think the mjo being forecast to move into a weak phase 8 will play any part in inhibiting a pressure rise over the u.k. Complete novice at all this my question is based on what iv'e read on here over the last year or so.

     

     

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