Tom D

The pattern setting up is very similar to last year's and we know how that turned out. It's worth mentioning that runs like this morning's GFS are probably a best case scenario, based on past let-downs, although it looks increasingly like it will become cold (and snowy) don't take the specifics (date, time, temperatures, wind directions, precipitation) as gospel... though it's looking promising for another cold winter.

So close with my 10.2c guess this month!

I'm going to guess a chilly November. 6.2c.

Two very sound posts IMO. My thoughts exactly why I voted 'stayed the same'. The Earth's climate has seen temperature fluctuations of a much greater scale and magnitude in it's long life, and people spend too much time analysing the last 100 years when we can tell from ice core analyses etc that flucatuations on a greater timescale and greater magnitude have happened before. Perhaps it is too early to tell whether human output of CO2 into the atmosphere has had any real effect on temperatures; I know we're told CO2 is higher than ever in concentration, however we do not know Earth's way of dealing with it. Weren't previous Ice Ages preceeded by periods of high CO2 from melt-ice and global warming?

It's currently increasing, isn't it? Or staying the same? It depends which timescale you're going by.

I remember the October 08 snow very well. I've got plenty of photos here: http://picasaweb.google.co.uk/dupplawt/Snow28thOctober0802?authkey=Gv1sRgCIaEiLGMncH0Sw&feat=directlink It was an amazing snow event. Better than many of the winters I've known.

Yesterday was the first day it actually started feeling like Autumn here; some trees are going yellow, the wind was gusty and it was dull and drizzly most of the day. Today is beautiful, clear skies and a cool breeze. I believe we can tell a lot about the coming winter from what Autumn is like. If it's early, it bodes well for a cold winter like last year.

We're going to have to wait a bit longer for a frost here; low last night of 4.9c. So far the closest we've got is 4.0c (18th September).

Is it odd that October's in the more recent 30 years have been cooler than the 61-90 average? Why is that? My guess is an average, if not slightly below average month. 10.2c.

The climate is not cooling, it is warming considerably. I would expect any 'cold' European winters to be a short term thing (like 50-150 years) as after this time the world will be so much warmer that even with a synoptic set up like last years, there'd be so much warm air around it would be fairly mild in comparison. Winter 09/10 was an extreme winter, especially January for the whole of the UK, but for Scotland the whole 3 months. It is extremely unlikely that it will be anything as cold for so long this coming winter. That doesn't mean there won't be cold spells. Of course, I'll be eating my words if January turns out 1/2c below average again. That's probably just a lasting effect of the cold winter?

I think I actually experienced the perfect winters day last winter. It had snowed heavily overnight and there were drifts of 2-3ft in the fields a short walk from our house. Me and my little brother went on a trek across the snowfields and found a frozen waterwall, from which we plucked the icicles carefully. It was a stunning day, a beautiful winter sky and very very cold, in fact the temperature did not rise above -1.1c. The next day the sky was superb also. It couldn't have been more of a winters day. Just perfect in my opinion. If we get anything like that this coming winter, I'll be very happy I have pictures here. Please take a look at Friday 8th and Saturday 9th January.

On the radar it's turned into a 15 mile long line of storm, I can see some nice IC lightning but the rain has stopped, very weird light.

Very little rain here, but I can see this storm nicely, looks like it's right over Hertford and Bengeo. Just saw a nice IC lightning, first lightning I've seen all year, and another now! Really loud crack them boom a few seconds later.

Potent little storm has popped up here, dark clouds overhead with a bit of light rain, one rumble of thunder. Seems to be very local, but getting larger before my eyes. Another loud crack of thunder... OMG first storm of the year!

Ah, but there are other infrequent weather 'coincidences' where cold winters can occur, just not the same as having an extremely -ve NAO + El Nino.

I was surprised last evening when it was pitch dark at 9pm, won't be long until it's dark at 4pm

My bedroom is usually 21-24c during summer and 18-21c during winter, but I can't sleep if it's any warmer than 24c. The highest I've ever seen it is 28c when it was really hot in June. I think the house is probably a similar temperature; we tend to leave the heating off for as long as possible in Autumn and Winter. Currently in here it's 23.0c and I've got both windows open.

I don't think this is going to be any more than a very wet and windy night for most places. The fact my location will get 20mm or so is quite remarkable given we barely had 20mm of rainfall throughout the entire months of April, June and July.

It might be worth you taking a look at the BBCs 'monthly summaries' for the past few years for August. Ones I've noticed with hot spells are August 2003 and 2004, with the best being largely dominated by high 24hr rainfall totals and thunderstorms. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/year_review/reviews/august2004_review.shtml Summer is always a very mixed affair in this country, with a rainy day easily followed by a hot sunny one. I don't think this current weather we're having is anything unusual as I have photos of storm clouds and rain during the first part of August for the last few years; it's just June and July have been on the whole very pleasant this year, for a long spell of heat and dry is now being made up for particularly around my area.

First rumble of thunder of the year here! Heavy shower, didn't see any lightning but it's a start. Hopefully some more later today.

Absolute torrential rainfall here for the past 10 minutes, with a 20 minute torrent shortly before that. 8mm in the past 30 minutes. Really cold and gloomy outside, but not a rumble yet

We've been spoilt with lovely Junes and Julys for years, August seems to never live up to expectation when in reality it's rarely as warm or sunny as either of the other 2 summer months. September is quite often warmer and sunnier than August in this country.

Only seen a couple here so far, one quite bright one. Lucky for me the sky has cleared and it's largely clear all around here.

I remember it being very wet and cool there during winter when it was unusually cold and snowy in much of this country. I've been storm deprived here this summer, not a single distant rumble of thunder, no lightning and not even any hail I can remember. Had a torrential downpour the other day which turned thundery after moving past us and onto London and southeastwards...